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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,518 / 1,754
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 8th, 2015, 02:11 PM   #961 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post

From article


Quoting 
Not everyone thinks oil is heading higher, and the industryís record isnít perfect. The biggest deals of the 1980s -- DuPont buying Conoco, a takeover of Gulf Oil by what became Chevron and U.S. Steelís bid for Marathon Oil -- occurred before the crash of 1986.

I'm thinking this is just too small a sample size with variable results to trust.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 02:25 PM   #962 (permalink)
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Thanks for the article.
The complete flaw in the piece is that the Shell-BG deal is a Natural Gas deal not an Oil deal.
The deal is much more than a simple bet on higher commodity prices, he said, because it allows Shell to cut costs while also gaining a stronger position in global natural-gas markets, which are expected to grow more quickly than oil.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 02:30 PM   #963 (permalink)
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One does not need to be on the inside to day trade CL. If it's not showing up on your screen while trading, it does not exist. If CL takes out 54 today, i am in BULLISH camp all the way till then no report, analysis etc.. mean much touting Bullish case. It has to cross 54 today with a FORCE that everyone remembers for couple of weeks. In ACD method terms this will be a weekly and daily C up which CL has failed to produce for over 8 months.Tomorrow does not count. I want to see shorts taken out on a stretcher till there are none left. So far, CL get excited for a day or two and then gives up in a hurry.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 02:43 PM   #964 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Thanks for the article.
The complete flaw in the piece is that the Shell-BG deal is a Natural Gas deal not an Oil deal.
The deal is much more than a simple bet on higher commodity prices, he said, because it allows Shell to cut costs while also gaining a stronger position in global natural-gas markets, which are expected to grow more quickly than oil.

Exactly. I think it's all about diversification not even either natural gas or oil.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 02:45 PM   #965 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Thanks for the article.
The complete flaw in the piece is that the Shell-BG deal is a Natural Gas deal not an Oil deal.
The deal is much more than a simple bet on higher commodity prices, he said, because it allows Shell to cut costs while also gaining a stronger position in global natural-gas markets, which are expected to grow more quickly than oil.

I think its worthwhile noting LNG was priced on oil basis up to last 6 months or so in certain markets.

I don't exactly know why that is but expect its due to transport reasons tanker of oil tanker of LNG.

I do think ng has a bright longer term future.

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2734165

Not touting this company used to have shares in it u can see the fleet is rented based on oil prices..


Last edited by leinster; April 8th, 2015 at 02:50 PM.
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Old April 8th, 2015, 03:17 PM   #966 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Last week's U.S. government data showing a marginal drop in weekly output was a case in point. Some thought it marked a turning point and crude prices rallied more than $1 right after the data, despite an otherwise bearish rise in crude stocks.

The problem is the figure is not what it might seem to be. Rather than a survey-based data like most other weekly government statistics, the number is an estimate based on weekly production in Alaska and U.S. Energy Information Agency's month-old forecasts, according to the agency's methodology.

A comparison of EIA's weekly production figures for December and the monthly figure based on state data published two months later, underscores the risk of taking the weekly numbers at face value.

While the weekly numbers never exceeded 9.13 million barrels per day, the monthly number came in at 9.3 million.

RPT-US oil output is falling! Or maybe not - market's data quandary | Reuters

Also other good info in article.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 03:21 PM   #967 (permalink)
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I think its worthwhile noting LNG was priced on oil basis up to last 6 months or so in certain markets.

Because for many of the countries that import LNG their only alternative is to import Oil.
As such most of the LNG pricing index's (JCC/ICP etc) are oil price related.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 03:39 PM   #968 (permalink)
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So far there is NO BID for CL so staying short. Looking at where price was yesterday and then saying there are buyers or support without any evidence from today PRICE ACTION mostly means one thing, -ve SURPRISES. There is a REASON our heads SPIN or we get headache becuase CL tend to SURPRISE.

Even i got tired of holding shorts this long so only left with the RUNNER but there were no longs for me, so far.

added to shorts 51.04 . Cover some 50.44 and stop loss on rest at 51.02. Every 30- 40 ticks bounce was a dead cat bounce and traders with upper hand loaded up on shorts on every opportunity they got. There were no longs all day worth taking with size. CL has a tendency to bounce some after evey 100 ticks move. Thinking about these bounces as a sign of buyers and getting long is not the way to win at this game.

CL failed to produce a daily and weekly C up as she has failed to do so for over 8 months. CL has not even produced a weekly A up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 03:52 PM   #969 (permalink)
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This thread seems to have posts on two subjects.

One is day trading with no interest in fundamentals by the day traders. The other is fundamentals with probably no interest in day trading.

Would each be served better by splitting the thread up?

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Old April 8th, 2015, 03:57 PM   #970 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
This thread seems to have posts on two subjects.

One is day trading with no interest in fundamentals by the day traders. The other is fundamentals with probably no interest in day trading.

Would each be served better by splitting the thread up?

Go ahead and start a one with fundamentals rather than splitting this one. By the way my shorts from 53.70 were based on fundamentals. No one holds a trade for 400 ticks just based on technicals. But i sure do love technical trading. If one can explain 10% up move in 2 days and then 6% down move in one day based on fundamentals- i am all ear. I have yet to come across one.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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