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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #951 (permalink)
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Cover short from yesterday at ORL. Till DOE report , mostly Mikey Mouse set ups.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #952 (permalink)
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Balance broke lower shorted 5260 as DOE # came out got 30 ticks but was wanting more only to see stopout at 56. Tried again at 5260 scaled at 5209/5183/5140 all out. Not many times you get a chance on a rebound like today. 15 tick stop above 5280 was good enough to find out if you are right for 75-100 ticks. Now no more good ideas. Mostly we get a larger than normal range on EIA# days but really have no good setups or ideas. Wait for FOMC next

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Quoting 
The United States Oil Fund, ticker "USO," is set to jump into the futures market this week, rolling a huge share of the outstanding U.S. oil futures contracts from May into June.

Traders are keeping a keen eye on the exchange-traded security, set to roll out of its more than 60,000 West Texas Intermediate futures contracts for May delivery into June, as volatility continues to rock the crude market.

May-June spread was 1.25 as per yesterday's settlement. A little wider right now.

EDIT figures I shouldn't have trusted CNBC for full information. The roll has already been happening.
May-June spread was 1.43 on April 6th, the day before roll started.

The roll started April 7th and continues until April 10th.
http://www.unitedstatescommodityfunds.com/fund-details.php?fund=uso&pagetype=roll-dates&page=fund-details


Last edited by ron99; April 8th, 2015 at 12:20 PM. Reason: more info
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  #955 (permalink)
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Still need more people to post though. I ve seen on other threads how people get admonished but no fear here. At least not from me. I just post to show how auction theory works. Since there are a lot of critics of that esp random line theory. It's always If...Then scenario running in my head. Two important levels above 5209 and 5228-29 so far really weak. Drift around until FOMC bears have all the chance to push lower down to 5075

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Cover short from yesterday at ORL. Till DOE report , mostly Mikey Mouse set ups.

Reshort after DOE report Cover some more as CL got stuck around 51.40 for 40 minutes. But i am not going long till evidence of buyers shows up. CL up 10% in 2 days and down 4.75% today. What's there not to like about trading CL?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #957 (permalink)
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Waiting to see if Flush down to 51.30 area is worth to try long or is this consolidation for next leg down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #958 (permalink)
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Waiting to see if Flush down to 51.30 area is worth to try long or is this consolidation for next leg down.

So far there is NO BID for CL so staying short. Looking at where price was yesterday and then saying there are buyers or support without any evidence from today PRICE ACTION mostly means one thing, -ve SURPRISES. There is a REASON our heads SPIN or we get headache becuase CL tend to SURPRISE.

Even i got tired of holding shorts this long so only left with the RUNNER but there were no longs for me, so far.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 8th, 2015 at 01:39 PM.
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  #959 (permalink)
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I'm getting crushed.
X/Z down more than most spreads, and F/G down less than most ~ hurting the most.
They settled X/Z 1c to high last night, which explains some of the X/Z move.

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Interesting piece from Bloomberg but controversial though
If History Is Any Guide, Big Deals Signal the Oil Market Is Bottoming - Bloomberg Business

And BH monthly rig report (international)
News Release | BakerHughes.com

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