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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,745 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 7th, 2015, 12:32 PM   #941 (permalink)
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Trading now @0.3, its cheap if the price goes down, but with risks.

Actually it's 0.03. And not much risk left in them.

Yes I am losing money on them. If I add more it will be either higher strike or next month options.

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Old April 7th, 2015, 12:33 PM   #942 (permalink)
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Timing is always an issue it seems....

And since timing can be tough, there are essentially two ways to deal with it, take a small loss a couple of times while you wait for the timing to be right, or use a very large stop and let the market work itself out.

Today I chose small stops and then was able to get on board while price did its thing.

Left some money on the table for sure, quite a lot actually but looking at the 60M chart it would either 1) stop at HOD from yesterday and reverse, 2) Break the HOD from yesterday and reverse and 3) Break the HOD from yesterday and run. I chose the conservative route....#1. And as price got close to it, I bracketed the current price and let either the stop or the limit be hit....the stop was hit and so out of the trade.

I was short early because there was a good case for it....and yesterday's 50% level was the target but after the open, price could not print a tick below the OR bar high....and today's OR low turned out to be the LOD, something that rarely happens....I think its 9% of the time...where the OR low or high is the high or low of the day.

I'm having a much better week than last week or even the last few weeks....I will be avoiding trading before inventory tomorrow. No sense in getting chopped up prior to the number...my stats say the hours between 5:30 and 7:30 AM on Wednesday are my worst trading hours period. So simply eliminating that time frame will probably save me a lot of money over the year.

The kiddo is on spring break this week so lots of daddy stuff to do! She's great and a super kid to be around.....looking forward to it.

Trades went 0, -10, +14, 0, +38

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Old April 7th, 2015, 12:41 PM   #943 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Actually it's 0.03. And not much risk left in them.

Yes I am losing money on them. If I add more it will be either higher strike or next month options.

Indeed 0.03

Open interest (USO), still a lot of puts

I have a nice screenshot to show it, but I can't post links

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Old April 7th, 2015, 01:33 PM   #944 (permalink)
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Most days I avoid trading early but for some reason I have a knack for finding days to get chopped early. Today though it's doing what it came to do. Tested weekly vwap early and off to races. Tried and paid for shorts early since then longs longs and more longs . I am not very good at playing game from both sides unless CL has a wide range with no value.



Still thinking a fundamental shift occured on FOMC day. Perhaps CNBC can tell us when the bottom is in lol. Out at 5358 on longs could end at highs again today. No Idea here but for me its profit zone so sticking to plan. CL in its upper zone here. Either range bound still or a breakout coming--CL range 42- 45-49-53-57(extreme).
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Last edited by garyboy275; April 7th, 2015 at 02:03 PM.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 02:38 PM   #945 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Small short from 53.70 going for untested area. BE stop now. if we come back up to tag it so be it

Edit: Out 5303 decent trade VPOC and 38.2% of the move retrace here + the prior lows before it took off. Price action is king


Last edited by garyboy275; April 7th, 2015 at 02:55 PM.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 05:53 PM   #946 (permalink)
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Shorted NHOC expecting 5291 to go overnight and then possibly back down to 5256. If it gaps down there then clear and just day trade

Edit: Out most at 5284. Still wary of API #'s they have been a setup for EIA#, will see if we can get own to 5256 on remainder


Last edited by garyboy275; April 7th, 2015 at 10:24 PM.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 06:15 PM   #947 (permalink)
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Trading

Was right on the entries but never got full targets. As posted yesterday

" There are no new longs for me in 51.80 to 54 area till API report and DOE report. Longs ONLY on pullbacks. CL will have to attack 52.45 etc without me." I keep geeting FLUSH UPS into potential resistance, so ONLY shorts. When i see a FLUSH DOWN to the down side, will look for longs.

There was a long off ORL at NY open around 9.25 am but i was not at my desk. By the time i got back at my desk around 10.15 am, i had to wait for a pullback for longs or short into highs. Flush down or pullbacks never came to try longs, so i was stuck to find opportunities from the short side.

CL up 10% in 2 days and as usual people start looking for breakouts at highs like 53.50, 54 etc. In my experience traders who trade breakout of a level on first test, get SURPRISED all the time. Above 53.60, 54 etc.. after a 10% move in 2 days- breakout is highly unlikely on first test unless some MACRO news is in the air.

RULE= No new longs during RTH after 100+ ticks move to the upside. No new shorts after 100+ ticks move to the down side. It's a 2 sided market and by the time indicators start flashing shorts or longs- it's too late. EXample, On my short from 53.76- everything was pointing to buy , buy. When price hit 53- sell, sell (lol). CL touched 52.90 and back upto 54.13 cleaning out stops.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 11:59 PM   #948 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
K +$2.50 but front 3 butterfly's all down 2-4c.



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Do you plot exchange traded spreads or do you calculate them synthetically?

That's actually the type of question I was expecting a few weeks back...

The answer is both. In the front end I use Volume Adjusted Exchange Spread Prices, but in the back end I rely more on the synthetics because they are more accurate once you get outside of the first few months. The nature of my trading is such that half tic differences in spread values can add up, so I really need to be accurate.

Some Examples
1) Exchange Traded Spreads

The obvious ones...
May/Jun is 50/51 hence is worth 50.5
Jun/Jul is 40/41 hence is worth 40.5
Hence the May/Jun/Jul Butterfly is worth 10 (50.5-40.5)

2) Volume Adjusted Exchange Traded Spreads
This unfortunately only works well on prompt spreads where everything is still 1 tic wide.
May/Jun is 50 bid for 208 and has 485 offered at 51 hence is worth 50.3 (467*50+208*51)/(467+208)
Jun/Jul is 40 bid for 356 and has 89 offered at 41 hence is worth 40.8
Now the May/Jun/Jul Butterfly is worth 9.5 (50.3-40.8)

3) Implied Spreads from Outrights
This works best for when you start getting out of the first few months because the longer term spreads define the market better than shorter term spreads. The most obvious example of this in crude is that the Dec15/Dec16 spread will nearly always be 1 tic wide during regular trading hours while the individual 1 month spreads will all be 1 tic and sometimes 2 tics wide.

Consider the following example
May is 1000/1001 ~ and hence worth 1000.5
May/Jun is 50/51 ~ Hence June is 949/951 and worth 950
Jun/Jul is 40/41 ~ Hence July is 908/911 and worth 909.5
Not surprisingly this gives you May/Jun is worth 50.5 (1000.5-950) and Jun/Jul is worth 40.5 (950-909.5)
Now if May/Jun is 50/51 and Jun/Jul is 40/41 we would expect May/Jul to be worth 90/92 but what happens if May/Jul is actually tighter at 90/91.
July would now be 909/911 and hence worth 910 which now gives us an implied Jun/Jul of 40 (950-910) rather than 40.5.
Hence under this scenario the May/Jun/Jul Butterfly is worth 10.5 (50.5-40)

What I actually do is
Dec16 = Dec15 + Dec15/16
Jun16 = best of Dec15 + Dec15/Jun16 or Dec16 - Jun16/Dec16
Mar16 = best of Dec15 + Dec15/Mar16 or Jun16 - Mar16/Jun16
Jan16 = best of Dec15 + Dec15/Jan16 or Mar16 - Jan16/Mar16 or Mar16 - Jan16/Feb16 - Feb16/Mar16
Feb16 = best of Dec15 + Dec15/Feb16 or Dec15 - Dec15/Jan16 + Jan16/Feb16 or Mar16 - Feb16/Mar16

If this is new to you and/or you find it interesting you might be interested in this 5 minute video from Quantitative Brokers. The actual purpose of the video is to illustrate how you can find additional available execution liquidity by considering all the Outright's, Spreads, Butterfly's and Double Fly's available (they are talking about Eurodollar "GE"). It's relevant though as the logic of finding that liquidity is very similar to the logic of finding optimal pricing I outlined.


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Old April 8th, 2015, 07:42 AM   #949 (permalink)
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RULE

Clarification of a Rule

" No new longs during RTH after 100+ ticks move to the upside. No new shorts after 100+ ticks move to the down side. It's a 2 sided market and by the time indicators start flashing shorts or longs- it's too late. EXample, On my short from 53.76- everything was pointing to buy , buy. When price hit 53- sell, sell (lol). CL touched 52.90 and back upto 54.13 cleaning out stops."


I initiate new position after 100+ ticks moves but i keep following chart front and center.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 8th, 2015, 10:28 AM   #950 (permalink)
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Long from 56 after buyers stepped in aiming for at least a partial fill of gap--above 5290

Edit: Idea behind the trade: gap down within ydays range and yday 5291 was support and its auctioned some of ydays unfilled areas still more lower to around 5204. First attempt at going higher after watching some eager buyers stepping in. Its finding it difficult to get over the daily vwap at 5277 Overnight range is small on average volume. So until EIA# confirms it no one beleives API #. A large build on API and a smaller 4-5m build on EIA and we go up. That's how the game is played. Scaled some for +22 no bad given the chop stop to BE


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