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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,216 / 1,757
Last Reply:1 Hour Ago (06:13 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 3rd, 2015, 03:10 PM   #931 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
and 1.3% down move in US$ today. I am toast on my short in CL from 49.39 area. Luckily have stop loss in but hoping to get a chance to get out on Sunday night before stop loss gets hit as stop loss is quite wide and high. Praying for not a Gap up on Sunday night.

I did not follow my Rule of Bad news good price action and shorted into Thursday close. Not good. Why would i take this trade in front of Job report and when CL market is closed on Friday- i have no idea except i was focused on Iran news from the wrong angle.

Today it is too late. But why not sell US$ or buy AD, EC, or CD to compensate for losses in CL, when the CL market is closed ? The currency markets were open today.

Good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old April 6th, 2015, 12:42 PM   #932 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
and 1.3% down move in US$ today. I am toast on my short in CL from 49.39 area. Luckily have stop loss in but hoping to get a chance to get out on Sunday night before stop loss gets hit as stop loss is quite wide and high. Praying for not a Gap up on Sunday night.

I did not follow my Rule of Bad news good price action and shorted into Thursday close. Not good. Why would i take this trade in front of Job report and when CL market is closed on Friday- i have no idea except i was focused on Iran news from the wrong angle.


CL gave enough time to get out of shorts during Asain session. Covered shorts 49.82.

Waited for NY open and then long on pullbacks at ORL. Long 50.20. Out some 50.74 and flat 50.68 as CL was consolidating around 50.80 area. Long again 51. 04, Out some 51.51 and flat 51.43.



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Old April 6th, 2015, 12:56 PM   #933 (permalink)
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Chart. There are no new longs for me in 51.80 to 54 area till API report and DOE report. Longs ONLY on pullbacks. CL will have to attack 52.45 etc without me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 6th, 2015, 01:25 PM   #934 (permalink)
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K +$2.50 but front 3 butterfly's all down 2-4c.


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Old April 6th, 2015, 01:58 PM   #935 (permalink)
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Massive rally the other day on a +4.8M build, and refused to go down further after Iran deal. Seems ready to go test 52 again.

Indeed testing 52, will see from here..

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Old April 6th, 2015, 01:59 PM   #936 (permalink)
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Chart looked to be a range morning at least and perhaps all day if price didn't break above the upper compression zone but it did so its turned into a trend day....the possibility of which was easy enough to see from the 60M chart.

I overslept a bit and so I missed the better entry at the top of the zone but my entry wasn't terrible and the risk was acceptable.

Long from 50.22 for 20 ticks then went and took a shower and got some food. Came back to see price breaking above the last compression zone of the morning....waited around to see if it would hold then bought 50.66 at the top of the zone and took it off at +70 ticks as priced reached 51.66, ten ticks shy of my target of 51.71 and began to reverse. Of course it continued on after some consolidation but that was enough.

I thought about being short from the high of the upper compression channel prior to the bounce up, but since I was hungry and needed a shower, I passed. The target zone at the bottom zone was the perfect exit location.....

All the orange lines at the bottom are the demand zones from the globex 15M chart.

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Old April 6th, 2015, 02:01 PM   #937 (permalink)
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K +$2.50 but front 3 butterfly's all down 2-4c.


Do you plot exchange traded spreads or do you calculate them synthetically?

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Old April 7th, 2015, 09:38 AM   #938 (permalink)
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Quoting 
On Wednesday April 1st, when options volume was around 50 percent higher than average, one trader bought 66,000 of a 16.50/14.50 May put spread on the USO priced at 50 cents. Since each contract controls 100 shares, the trader risked $3.3 million.

The trade breaks even should the USO decline to $16 per share. However, if the USO sinks to as low as $14.50—or 17.5 percent below Wednesday's closing price—by May 15, the trade could make back nearly $10 million or triple the amount wagered.

Trader bets $3 million on new lows for crude oil

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Old April 7th, 2015, 10:58 AM   #939 (permalink)
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Very good article with lots of info on Cushing oil movements.


Quoting 
On Monday, energy information group Genscape said its data showed Cushing stocks rose by only 169,000 barrels in the week to April 3. Oil futures jumped nearly $3 a barrel on surprise that the build was so much less than the average weekly build of 2 million barrels in recent months at the U.S. storage hub. Cushing last had a draw in the final week of November, and this was the smallest weekly build since then.

Oil futures jumped as market players saw a chance that a draw was looming at Cushing this week. But in the physical market, traders and other sources said they expected a large build. Citing industry reports of pipeline flows and refinery work, they said it looked like Cushing's hundreds of oil tanks remained on track to fill to the brim by the first week of May.

This week's Genscape report was "very bullish for crude," said one trading source. "But I think builds should be massive next week."

One factor that may help explain the small build was a dip in volumes on Tallgrass Energy Partners LP's Pony Express pipeline. But shipments have risen sharply since Wednesday afternoon.

This week, stocks may be inflated by the multi-day stoppage on both halves of the 850,000 bpd Seaway pipeline system from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. These were shut on April 3, the cut-off for the weekly stockpiles report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due on Wednesday.

Looking further ahead, Phillips 66 has scheduled up to two weeks of unexpected maintenance at its 247,000 bpd refinery in Sweeny, Texas. This will reduce local demand for Permian Basin crude that will now either be pumped to Cushing or shipped to Gulf Coast refiners.

RPT-Surprise pause in Cushing oil stock rise likely blip, not trend | Reuters

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Old April 7th, 2015, 12:20 PM   #940 (permalink)
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Trader bets $3 million on new lows for crude oil[/url]

Interesting, but how would they know if it was 1 trader.


ron99 View Post
I bought CL puts equal to 4% of my account balance. The last ones were Jun 30s for 0.10. I intend to hold them until early May. If no major drop in CL by then, I will reevaluate my position.

Trading now @0.3, its cheap if the price goes down, but with risks.

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