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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,328 / 1,754
Last Reply:1 Hour Ago (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 2nd, 2015, 11:58 AM   #901 (permalink)
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After the opening price was bouncing off the 80's, I saw volume start to pick up and went long with a market order. When it hit 49.41, overnight low, and retraced a bit i closed it up. Whenever I have a trade on that has gone 30+ ticks in my favor i start to get antsy with booking profits.
Because I only trade 1-2 contracts, scaling in and out isn't an option i have explored very much.

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1-2 cars all in and all out is the best way to trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 2nd, 2015, 12:09 PM   #902 (permalink)
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I'll be closing this trade soon if there's no more follow through to the down side but here it is.

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I tightened the stop a bit, and narrowed the target....I saw the structure at the OR area and decided that was as good a place as any to close it out....but did it a bit late...so now waiting for price to retest that area.

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EDIT: Flat at .19....probably leaving another 50-90 ticks on the table but the structure looked good for a target.

EDIT 2: Bugger, original target hit...left 50 ticks.......

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Old April 2nd, 2015, 12:37 PM   #903 (permalink)
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Euro close special. No interest in longs till 49 is cleared or selling gets shut off plus lunch hour doldums, so no need to rush.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 2nd, 2015, 12:41 PM   #904 (permalink)
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I think its a range day now, at least for a bit....as I write this my stop is already at BE.....not giving it much room at this point. And yes this is a 3 minute chart.

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Narrowed target, locked in ten....this is just scalping at this point.

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Out at +30

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Old April 2nd, 2015, 12:42 PM   #905 (permalink)
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Couldnt get anything right yesterday and today it's a crystal clear day. Luckily CL gives a lot of opportunities

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Old April 2nd, 2015, 12:54 PM   #906 (permalink)
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Euro close special. No interest in longs till 49 is cleared or selling gets shut off plus lunch hour doldums, so no need to rush.

Video Game. The analysts, funamental traders etc.. look at this VIDEO game and scratch their heads in this HFT, algo enviornment. Some set ups are based off Macro fundamentals and some by RULES of the VIDEO game. Video Game is palyed within 50-70 ticks range and has high degree of success during certain times of the day. One has to wait for a SHAKE DOWN in either direction. Saying 49.20 is support or 48.90 is Line in the sand etc.. and then getting SURPRISED is not the way to go. They can rip or drop 50 ticks any time with a BLINK of an eye.

Have to wait for a SHAKE DOWN.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 2nd, 2015, 12:55 PM   #907 (permalink)
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I left 50 ticks on the table on the shorts and I narrowed my target to +30 on the long and left 20 ticks on the table based on where I initially thought it might go...back to the current day 50% level....I made 80 ticks today and left 70 ticks on the table....

Of course this leads a person to be disappointed with the results....but if I had been greedy and tried for lots more and it reversed on me and stopped me out, I'd be disappointed with that.

The point is, this is an inherently disappointing business. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't....and other people ridicule you for your mistakes. They point out what you should have done (always hindsight) or worse they just tell you your not doing it right.

In a business where every decision is made with a high degree of uncertainty, having a process, following that process and then allowing your trades to work out one way or the other is the only way to derive satisfaction and fulfillment. If we as traders allow the "what might have been" or the better known, woulda shoulda coulda's to determine our worth or our satisfaction level, we will be most miserable.

I am happy with the day's results, regardless of how many ticks I did nor did not make. Its the process.



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I think its a range day now, at least for a bit....as I write this my stop is already at BE.....not giving it much room at this point. And yes this is a 3 minute chart.

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Narrowed target, locked in ten....this is just scalping at this point.

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Out at +30


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Old April 2nd, 2015, 01:09 PM   #908 (permalink)
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Video Game. The analysts, funamental traders etc.. look at this VIDEO game and scratch their heads in this HFT, algo enviornment. Some set ups are based off Macro fundamentals and some by RULES of the VIDEO game. Video Game is palyed within 50-70 ticks range and has high degree of success during certain times of the day. One has to wait for a SHAKE DOWN in either direction. Saying 49.20 is support or 48.90 is Line in the sand etc.. and then getting SURPRISED is not the way to go. They can rip or drop 50 ticks any time with a BLINK of an eye.

Have to wait for a SHAKE DOWN.


SHAKE DOWN.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 2nd, 2015, 01:10 PM   #909 (permalink)
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Context: The million Dollar word. That's why humans will always overrule any algo.

Today is splashy kind of day with no balance. The best kind of day for someone looking for a quick 50 ticks but you have to be flexible. Being married to one idea is the death of a trader. Reaction to the opening print and reaction to weekly vwap are the key takes today so far. Before end of day bulls and bears have to agree on a price(not necessary but generally they do-one side is bruised and bloodied during the day but by end of the day they are friends who are willing to shake hands and fight the next day). The morning splashy nature of CL will narrow and we get only 20-30 tick moves. If it pushes to one extreme the close will be real interesting tomorrow being a holiday for stock markets and futures are open only for NFP action. Interesting 24 hours setting up.

Out at 4961--it can goto 50 or 51$ i am not into dreaming today. Restful sleep last night.


More on context: Someone trying to sell or short at yesterday VPOC is pretty disappointed so far or sitting on his hands while the time ticks by. Markets are dynamic. Most of the people who trade CL for a long time realize it just like many other markets it doesn't really give a shit about what you or Goldman Sachs want. We all trade our Ideas. They all make predictions (trade idea?) based on macro ideas which may or maynot come true. Ever since the crackdown on insider trading their profits have been falling and they have been quitting the more manipulative markets. Isn't that funny. If you got NFP#'s or FOMC minutes a day or two ahead pretty sure you could make 15% a year and "beat" the market. For beginners trading without context is a crazy idea. News are put out there for a reason. Turn off all news and listen to your heartbeat and be one with CL. If you are not dancing in tune with CL try another day cause wasting your risk $ on bad setups is just a really really bad idea.

Edit: The arrow on the chart are there to show what to expect--I d put a picture of a woman's boob but trying to stay professional LOL
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Old April 2nd, 2015, 01:59 PM   #910 (permalink)
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Back to scene of crime and i am staying short till Flush down. Short from49.43. Nothing wrong with covering some. But saying 48.70 is support and going long without evidence is for DAY DREAMERS. CL can jump back upto 49.60 etc without a FLUSH down first, but i stick to my RULES. I am happy to get stopped out on remaining short position. Plus i will have plenty of time to decide should i just close the shorts or sit tight.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 2nd, 2015 at 02:05 PM.
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