i think the thread has deviated from its intended purpose. originally, it was about how to trade cl. now it appears to be a thread where individuals are attempting to predict how far crude will fall, or when it will bottom. trading may seem like it's a form of prediction; but, it really isn't. although, it is human nature to try and approach trading in terms of making a prediction; and, it's a very interesting intellectual exercise that is both fun and challenging, not unlike solving a puzzle. and, when we get it right, it can be extremely emotionally satisfying, even if it was because of random luck. people always ask me, "where do you think the market is going?"and, while i inadvertently may have a forward looking opinion, i try not to let that get in the way of my trading. instead, i choose to trade the market, and let the market tell me where its going. if you focus on trying to predict the market, then you are a speculator, and not a trader. those are different skill-sets, which require different approaches to the market. as a trader, and especially as a leveraged trader, you have to concentrate on projecting losses, risk management, and finding an approach to the market that works day in and day out, so that chance can prevail. trying to predict the future of crude oil prices is not going to make you money on a consistent basis. what is going to make you money, is not getting stopped out of potential winners, turning short term trades into longer ones, and keeping draw-downs to manageable levels. markets are markets and while es is a different animal from cl, they are both part of the same kingdom. this is a period of great uncertainty for both markets, because of the long uptrend in es, and the long downtrend in cl. the es market is waiting to see the magnitude and effectiveness of european qe and how geopolitical conflicts will play out; and, the oil market is waiting to see what the saudi's will do, if supply will be pared, and if demand from asia will improve. the markets themselves have no idea how any of this will be resolved, so how can anyone think, that by looking at a chart of past price action, they can successfully predict what's going to happen in the future?
Last edited by tigertrader; January 18th, 2015 at 04:12 PM.
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The intense recent 2 month selling we saw might be permanently bulls and hedges going on and historically speaking we are entering a bullish time frame for CL.
Tuesday we rallied from gap down lows and while the EIA# was bearish Cl had no intention of selling and rallies past the McVpoc area of 4850 and rallied even on Thursday open to 51+ before pulling back to Tuesdays vpoc area. friday it had every reason to sell, a retest higher and failure with continuation lower would be expected on continued selling pressure instead we got a failure above 4850 and a late day push above that area to make new highs into the close. where does that leave us? I am thinking possibly a ramp higher establishing value between 4850 to 5150 area and continuing to push toward 5350 and 5500 areas. Impulsive push below 4850 would negate all that. So far we rallied on bearish news and we hasb e follow through I am not married to this idea but until proved wrong I am going forward next week with that
I attended a Rational Trader dot com (Shane Handy) webinar yesterday on /CL order flow, 11amET to 3pm and he did a damn good job. Especially since it was zero clams to attend. Full disclosure - I'll be taking the seven day trial
There s always elite trader for you. I already gave you a synopsis of what I saw last week. Still waiting something constructive from you and you were first to complain that this thread has lost its meaning. And with that I won't ever share my ideas here thank you
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While I agree completely with your comment regarding the effect of Contango on ETFs it should be noted that the negative effect on returns applies to long positions. For short ETFs (short ETF or long inverse ETF) the effect should in theory be the opposite, ie positive yield roll in a contango market.
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