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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,184 / 1,753
Last Reply:9 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 31st, 2015, 05:45 PM   #871 (permalink)
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So courge to put on 2 cars was the correct call. Out 48.21. Did not add to shorts as i was looking for a FLUSH up to add to he shorts like the one we had yesterday into the close. I am already short enough cars with average price of 48.90.

I will hit flat tab on my shorts if after API report CL gets above 48.30 area or before API report and look at things from fresh perspective. every trader is PRONE to gettng married to one position/bias and then getting taken to the cleaners.

Why 48.30 area? i do not want to give up all the gains on shorts from 48.90 area. I have given enpough time to shorts. There may be something lurking out there ( Iran deal etc). One can always put a new trade on.


No downside reaction to API news. Took 3/4 of shorts out around 47.70. Will keep shorting bounces till proven wrong.



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Old March 31st, 2015, 06:23 PM   #872 (permalink)
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No downside reaction to API news. Took 3/4 of shorts out around 47.70. Will keep shorting bounces till proven wrong.

API numbers not in play. Looks like Iran deal news is coming out 6 pm eastern time today.



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Old March 31st, 2015, 07:13 PM   #873 (permalink)
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API numbers not in play. Looks like Iran deal news is coming out 6 pm eastern time today.

and Drama continues.

" LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP)

Nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers have entered into overtime, after negotiators decided to ignore a midnight Tuesday deadline and give more time to efforts to reach agreement.

Negotiations were continuing into Wednesday morning, local time. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf says the extension was justified although "several difficult issues" still needed to be bridged.

The sides hope to reach a preliminary understanding that will allow them to enter a new phase of negotiations aiming at a final deal by June.

The U.S and its negotiating partners want to curb Iranian nuclear programs that could be used to make weapons. Iran denies such aims but is negotiating for an end to sanctions."



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Old March 31st, 2015, 10:06 PM   #874 (permalink)
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" No downside reaction to API news. Took 3/4 of shorts out around 47.70. Will keep shorting bounces till proven wrong."

Damn CL at 47.18. The moment FEAR of loosing ones potential gains enters a traders mind, a traders gets shaken out. That's what happened when CL bounced from 47.30 to 47.70 after API news. I am glad i kpet some shorts on.

What a bloke like you trading CL?




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 1st, 2015 at 04:50 AM.
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Old April 1st, 2015, 09:12 AM   #875 (permalink)
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" I will hit flat tab on my shorts if after API report CL gets above 48.30 area or before API report and look at things from fresh perspective. Every trader is PRONE to gettng married to one position/bias and then getting taken to the cleaners."


Still short as my Globex stop loss above 48.30 did not get hit. However, i did cover some more around 47.18. There are ONLY 3 ways to manage risk;

1) If you have leverage in your portfolio, deleverage.

2) Buy Insurance.

3) Diversify.

I mostly rely on option#1. Still looking to add to shorts in " Short account".



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Old April 1st, 2015, 11:12 AM   #876 (permalink)
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Out of shorts 47.80. Flat ahead of DOE drama. It's tough to find a STOP LOSS location. CL can spike 60 ticks or spike down before resuming whatever she needs to do. I hope she does not get stuck in a tight range waiting for IRAN deal news.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 1st, 2015 at 11:18 AM.
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Old April 1st, 2015, 11:26 AM   #877 (permalink)
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Hello Friends

Hi My name is Paul...I was wondering if they are any crude oil traders in Washington DC area for meeting up?

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Old April 1st, 2015, 11:57 AM   #878 (permalink)
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I too was flat for inventory. However, this is what I saw today. Lots of stops at this level for both longer term traders as well as day traders.

I did not trade this as I could not find a good stop location prior to the number but for those with very deep pockets or compulsive gamblers, this was a fair bet.

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Old April 1st, 2015, 12:11 PM   #879 (permalink)
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Still very quiet here.

Looking at the 3 month spreads...
May-Aug KQ trading -394 which is -131 per spread
Aug-Nov QX trading -217 which is -72 per spread
Nov-Feb6 XG trading -174 which is -58 per spread
Feb6-May6 GK trading -128 which is -43 per spread
May6-Aug6 KQ trading -92 which is -31 per spread

So the Butterflys are worth
May-Aug-Nov KQX -177
Aug-Nov-Feb QXG -43
Nov-Feb-May XGK -46
Feb-May-Aug GKQ -36

QXG @ -43 looks high....

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Old April 1st, 2015, 12:12 PM   #880 (permalink)
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4915-4900 needs to be taken out with some force today. Nice short area for turn back to 4850.

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