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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,814 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 31st, 2015, 01:33 PM   #851 (permalink)
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nobody would want to hear about my 'mickey mouse' trades..

I am all for it. One has to start from somewhere. There is no shame in it. Sharing trades can be quite liberating and get a trader out of MIKEY MOUSE ZONE.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 31st, 2015, 01:37 PM   #852 (permalink)
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I've been very quiet the last 2.5 days, curve is very boring.
NG is even worse. That market will put you to sleep.

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Old March 31st, 2015, 01:42 PM   #853 (permalink)
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I've been very quiet the last 2.5 days, curve is very boring.
NG is even worse. That market will put you to sleep.

yep, that's why i pray for sizeable bounces so that i can short CL right in her face. It's tough to short at days lows etc. All i know shorts have uper hand and they keep adding to shorts into the bounces and covering at lows. Traders who are short from 51, 49.50 etc. have enough gains and they do not mind adding to shorts at 48.50, 49 etc. That was the reason for my short at 48.77 after electronic close yesterday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 31st, 2015, 01:50 PM   #854 (permalink)
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Hi everyone,
after two bad trades at the NY open, i put some intere on IB HI
long at 48.46 exit at 48.62. i lost the reversal at 48.67 at HVA from yesterday
range day....

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Old March 31st, 2015, 01:55 PM   #855 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Staying with the trend and keep adding to original position.

I have been at this for years now and have not fully implemented it.

EXAMPLE: short 20 cars 49.30 into Friday close.

1) Cover some 48.20 area before electronic close on Friday.

2) Add to shorts on Monday around 49 area. Cover some 47.70 area.

3) Add to shorts at 48.77 after pit close on Monday. Cover some 48, some 47.70 etc. during Tuesdy Globex session. Keep adding to shorts during NY session on Tuesday around 48.50 area while covering some.



This sounds and look all very neat and clean but one has to endure 100 ticks bounces in between. A trader also has to manage number of cars from original short and number of new cars added subsequently. Every time a short is covered, original shorts gets covered first.

NOTE: 1) This example is just for illustrative purposes.
2) This example shows as to why i am not interested in longs and keep shorting CL.
3) If there is no bounce, i am already on the train and do not have to sweat shorting at lows. When bounce comes, i buy more seats on the train.
4) If i get stopped out at my disaster stop loss ( which is above 49.50 area) , i just have to make sure i am not adding to my shorts from 47.50 area all the way to 49 (lol). I have done such foolish things in the past all in the name of staying with the trend.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 31st, 2015 at 02:59 PM.
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Old March 31st, 2015, 02:10 PM   #856 (permalink)
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Is anyone else trading? I would like to see how some of the other traders are trading. It hardly benefits anyone if just one trader post - that's the reason i closed my journal. I thought there are some new traders here so we may get differnt points of views.

I bought CL puts equal to 4% of my account balance. The last ones were Jun 30s for 0.10. I intend to hold them until early May. If no major drop in CL by then, I will reevaluate my position.

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Old March 31st, 2015, 02:12 PM   #857 (permalink)
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Hi everyone,
after two bad trades at the NY open, i put some intere on IB HI
long at 48.46 exit at 48.62. i lost the reversal at 48.67 at HVA from yesterday
range day....


" long at 48.46 exit at 48.62. i lost the reversal at 48.67 at HVA from yesterday"

One should only be long at 48.46 if one thinks CL is going to 49 and beyond. No one can catch a reversal 20 ticks later after being long just minutes earlier. That's how computers trade and it's tough to beat them. Globex low of 47.28 and price at 48.50 during NY session- a move of 122 ticks within a bearish trend - is enough information for me to say NO LONGS here. I do not care what anything else is showing like delta, DOM, bid- ask etc They are all designed to catch retail traders. Every tool is helpful if trading with macro trend.

I have to confess, i thought about going long too but then 122 ticks move came to my mind and i shorted it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 31st, 2015 at 02:54 PM.
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Old March 31st, 2015, 02:30 PM   #858 (permalink)
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Johhny come lately have no chance in most cases. If API report or DOE report does not generate required reaction, i cut down my shorts or just get out. I do not care how bearish the reports are. I have been hurt enough not to mess with BAD NEWS BUT GOOD PRICE ACTION scenarios to fight it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 31st, 2015, 02:38 PM   #859 (permalink)
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out at 48.22 and 48.47 just 1 runner left BE stop


Last edited by garyboy275; March 31st, 2015 at 02:46 PM.
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Old March 31st, 2015, 02:46 PM   #860 (permalink)
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A story of 2 accounts. One with maxium position size and the other one with smaller position size. In the end we all trade our CONVICTIONS. As a RULE i am always out of counter trend trade after a certain % of ATR etc. and then get ready to add or put on a trade with macro trend into the bounces. If i can get 40-60 ticks on a macro counter trade, i count my blessings and get out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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