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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,089 / 1,755
Last Reply:17 Hours Ago (02:44 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 27th, 2015, 02:05 PM   #821 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -21 to 1048 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 21 rigs from last week to 1048, with oil rigs down 12 to 813, gas rigs down 9 to 233, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

U.S. Rig Count is down 761 rigs from last year at 1809, with oil rigs down 674, gas rigs down 85, and miscellaneous rigs down 2.

The U.S. Offshore rig count is 34, down 3 rigs from last week, and down 16 rigs year over year.

The report is also available on their website.

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Old March 27th, 2015, 04:17 PM   #822 (permalink)
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One day of bounce - even though it was massive- everyone forgot about as to what's been going on for over a year with Crude. They forgot about all the inventory reports which has been coming out every Wednesday with the same message every time- there is plenty of supply.

My premise has not changed for shorts and will not change till Crude gets really defended. Shorts and shorts since Thursday. Never once it crossed my mind to try longs except for scalps. Within a bearish trend " BIGGER THE BOUNCE- BIGGER THE POSITION SIZE" is the rule i go by.

It's lot easier to short at 52, 51 then at 44. But people get bullish above 50 and bearish below 44 (lol).



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 27th, 2015 at 04:31 PM.
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Old March 27th, 2015, 04:34 PM   #823 (permalink)
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Why would CL will hang in there all day at 49.50 area and then drop 150 ticks into close? They like to lull people into FALSE SENSE of security. Hi, CL got bought at 49.50 2 days ago, look how price stayed above it all day, there is a HVN etc. and then it all dissappears . We like to look at these made up things like MACRO traders gives shit about these things. This is the thinking i had when i tried long at 49.80 before the close thinking CL is going to 50.40 etc. Luckily i know what happens when you have Montly, Weekly and daily A downs , so i got out.


CORRECTION: First chart should read short 51.89 and cover 51.10 area



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; March 27th, 2015 at 04:52 PM.
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Old March 27th, 2015, 04:37 PM   #824 (permalink)
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A picture is worth 1000 words.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 27th, 2015, 05:05 PM   #825 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
CL bounced hard during Asian session on Wednesday ( once in a year type of event) due to headline news of Saudia Arabia attack on Yemen and traders took out their PITCH FORKS, MEDIAN LINES, MARKET PROFILE, FIB, GANN, ELLIOT WAVES etc. and on and on and declared that their magical forecast TARGETS got hit.

It's another thing that hardly anyone one of them had a trade on. Saudia Arabia did not call me before the event but i knew what needs to happen at highs. If more and new headlines had came out of that region- CL would have continued on her upward path regardless of our neat little tools based projections.

Since there was no news it was time to take the AIR out of this move. Bottom line i did not short becuase i have some tool telling me that THIS is it, CL is not going higher. Since it was a fluid enviornment i used tight stop loss and got stopped out many time till i got the market by the BALLS.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 27th, 2015, 05:18 PM   #826 (permalink)
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Stop loss on rest of shorts 49.50 area and if and when 47.40 area gets broken , will add to shorts. Who knows we may get another headline news event and CL rips again. That will be the catalyst for a back up move and not due to some lines on a chart.

Anyone who was rubbing his hands that despite his analysis showing CL is going to $52 he missed the up move, well here is your chance, buy CL with both hands. I have no interest in longs here.

NOTE: Stop loss is just based off what i cn afford to give up from potential gains. I do not draw lines and say CL is going here or there. My feeling is if there is no news- CL should not bounce back 100 ticks if she wants to go lower.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 27th, 2015 at 05:26 PM.
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Old March 27th, 2015, 05:35 PM   #827 (permalink)
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A new sucker is born every minute. Turn $500 to $300,000. EX- Pipe fitter has discovered a hidden code (lol). I am booking next flight to Australia (lol).

" David Burton 1hr
File: BURTON1.mp3
Gann Teacher & Private Trader: Australia
Born: 1957 Years in the Market: 22
Method of Trading: Technical
David is not an intraday trader. Why should he be when
market moves can be predicted years in advance?
Born in New Zealand, David qualified as a fitter for the
New Zealand Electricity Board before moving to
Australia in 1978 to work on the mines. In 1983 he
briefly became a futures broker and at the same time
discovered the works of W.D.Gann, a market analyst
from the first half of the twentieth century. Since his
stint as a broker he has been privately trading his own
account. Having spent years studying Gann and
decoding its hidden meanings, Burton is able to predict
future market movements.
Using Gann techniques, he was able to, for example
predict the moves in Cotton in the mid 1990's, turning
$500 into $300,000 using traded options. David is not
someone who minces his words and answers to
questions are often direct, succinct and to the point.
A number of his basic approaches are revealed, as well
as clues to further research. For example, he has
discovered a hidden code in Gann’s book, Tunnel
Through the Air"



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 28th, 2015, 04:37 AM   #828 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
A new sucker is born every minute. Turn $500 to $300,000. EX- Pipe fitter has discovered a hidden code (lol). I am booking next flight to Australia (lol).

" David Burton 1hr
File: BURTON1.mp3
Gann Teacher & Private Trader: Australia
Born: 1957 Years in the Market: 22
Method of Trading: Technical
David is not an intraday trader. Why should he be when
market moves can be predicted years in advance?
Born in New Zealand, David qualified as a fitter for the
New Zealand Electricity Board before moving to
Australia in 1978 to work on the mines. In 1983 he
briefly became a futures broker and at the same time
discovered the works of W.D.Gann, a market analyst
from the first half of the twentieth century. Since his
stint as a broker he has been privately trading his own
account. Having spent years studying Gann and
decoding its hidden meanings, Burton is able to predict
future market movements.
Using Gann techniques, he was able to, for example
predict the moves in Cotton in the mid 1990's, turning
$500 into $300,000 using traded options. David is not
someone who minces his words and answers to
questions are often direct, succinct and to the point.
A number of his basic approaches are revealed, as well
as clues to further research. For example, he has
discovered a hidden code in Gann’s book, Tunnel
Through the Air"

hahahaha Hidden Code !! Is that like the Holy Grail

Moves predicted Years In Advance , yeah right pull the other one !

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Old March 28th, 2015, 10:52 AM   #829 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Since there was no news it was time to take the AIR out of this move. Bottom line i did not short becuase i have some tool telling me that THIS is it, CL is not going higher. Since it was a fluid enviornment i used tight stop loss and got stopped out many time till i got the market by the BALLS.

Hi mfbreakout, I been learning very much with all your posts in this awesome thread, thanks is not enough. how tight are your stops loss? and how often tries to grab the market by the balls . do you use always the 6 trades rules?

thanks

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Old March 28th, 2015, 12:52 PM   #830 (permalink)
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SMCJB-Jan 27th
After production hit 9.1 million bpd in late 2014, the agency (EIA) now expects production to climb to 9.42 million bpd around the middle of this year, then ebb to 9.26 million bpd at year's end.

The US hit 9.42 last week. Well ahead of the EIA prediction of the middle of the year.


Last edited by ron99; March 28th, 2015 at 05:06 PM.
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