The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:164,104 / 2,037
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:532

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 532  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #791 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,233 received

Trading

This is one of the key components of THE HOLY GRAIL. Every time i ignore this , i get HIT HARD.

Trade Small Trade Often Market Measures 1/8/13 Trade small and trade often is one of the core ideas that you will hear over and over at tastytrade. By keeping your positions small and putting on lots of trades, you significantly reduce your chances of blowing out your trading account and if your trades have a high probability of profit, you should, over time, see increasing trading profits. This segment explains the math behind why we need to put on lots of trades and keep them small.

http://ontt.tv/1CkfILq

NOT: I am slowly trying to get into trading options on futures as a SWING trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 22nd, 2015 at 08:09 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #792 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prague, Czech Republic
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: AgenaTrader, Track'nTrade
Broker/Data: DeCarley/OEC, IBKR, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: futures, options
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 66 given, 83 received


mfbreakout View Post
This is one of the key components of THE HOLY GRAIL. Every time i ignore this , i get HIT HARD.

Trade Small Trade Often Market Measures 1/8/13 Trade small and trade often is one of the core ideas that you will hear over and over at tastytrade. By keeping your positions small and putting on lots of trades, you significantly reduce your chances of blowing out your trading account and if your trades have a high probability of profit, you should, over time, see increasing trading profits. This segment explains the math behind why we need to put on lots of trades and keep them small.

http://ontt.tv/1CkfILq

NOT: I am slowly trying to get into trading options on futures as a SWING trader.

I've switched to trading CL options on higher timeframes some time ago already. I find it harder and harder to achieve consistent results by daytrading CL on something like 3 or 5 min chart with reasonable money management.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to rani for this post:
 
  #793 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,233 received

Trding



rani View Post
I've switched to trading CL options on higher timeframes some time ago already. I find it harder and harder to achieve consistent results by daytrading CL on something like 3 or 5 min chart with reasonable money management.

We all look forward to your help regarding trading CL on higher time frames. Post your thinking, analysis etc. when you can.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Reply With Quote
 
  #794 (permalink)
Elite Member
toronto canada
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ib
Favorite Futures: option
 
Posts: 25 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 3 given, 3 received

order flow market profile

I am looking for order flow market profile for ninja trader 7 if any body can help me please

Reply With Quote
 
  #795 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,233 received

trading


jas12 View Post
I am looking for order flow market profile for ninja trader 7 if any body can help me please

Use serah tab for " Gomi". Following link have some info.

https://futures.io/elite-circle/3737-gommp-market-profile-indicator.html



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #796 (permalink)
Elite Member
Arkansas
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: TF, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 86 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 192 given, 134 received

Swing trading

As far as oil is concerned I am a swing trader and generally hold for several weeks to several months. I only focus on the fundamentals, economics and political side of it. I suck at picking tops/bottoms so I scale/average into positions. I am not an industry expert and am just a regular trader but here is my current views.

There is a ton of information out there that leads me to believe that it will be very difficult to get back above $60 for a really long time. Does this mean there is more downside, not really. We could trade in the $40-$60 range for a couple years.

All around the world storage is at or near an all time high. There is a cost to storage though and that cost appears to be increasing. any significant uptick in price is likely to be met with unloading of the storage. For example, buy at $45 and store it until we hit $55 then start unloading. However, not all storage is for resale as many governments are buying as much as they can possible store with no plans to sell. So you have to take the storage story lightly.

The US rig count continues to drop while production continues to increase. This leads me to believe that companies are shutting down low volume/high cost rigs and increasing production on the rest until price gets back into the profitable range for those rigs.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Capitulation hasn't happened yet. Until we see a lot of companies going under or defaulting on their debt then there is not a driving force to lower production. Most estimates I have seen show that many of the at risk US companies are hedged enough through the end of this year or next year to survive the lower prices. Many banks are already starting to work with them to restructure the debt to get them a little further down the road. I suspect we start seeing more M&A later this year that could shake up this a little bit.

At some point there will be a lot of political pressure put on OPEC and US to decrease production as there are many countries who really needs oil to be $60+ for their government to run. In the short term they are increasing their output in order to offset the lower cost. This can't continue for ever. A lot of these countries try not to put the bad news out into the public and claim things are just fine. I don't see how this is the case though. Simple economics points to a much different picture. I mean Greece was doing just fine according to them until things got to a critical stage.

I have been building positions in oil companies and ETF's whenever price dips below $45. I sell a little on the pops towards/above $50 and will continue this cycle. I am prepare to hold these for years and will scale in larger in the $30's. I closed the last of my short positions on the most recent drop below $50 and don't have any plans to short anything in the oil/gas industry at this time. My most recent, this past week, oil company purchases were NOV and CVX. I will continue to add to them if they drop more and will take some profits if I can get 20% or more return in the next few months. I can hold them for a couple years though if needed.

I have been looking into to other ways to trade oil on smaller timeframes without trading CL directly or taking on the risk it carries. I have more then enough risk exposure from trading TF and NQ that I prefer to focus on that for now.

Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to wirechild for this post:
 
  #797 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,233 received

Trading

CL has no self respect. She drops 1-2 % on drop of a hat. Please come up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-03-22_1928_dreaming.png  
Reply With Quote
 
  #798 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,233 received

Trading

Hi Wirechild,

" My most recent, this past week, oil company purchases were NOV and CVX. I will continue to add to them if they drop more and will take some profits if I can get 20% or more return in the next few months. I can hold them for a couple years though if needed.".


Even swing traders have stop loss or a point when premise is wrong. I have been looking at integrated Oil companies to buy for swing trading ( months, years etc) but can not figure out stop loss. How do you figure out stop loss? I know you ONLY look at fundamentals but i hope startegy is not to just keep buying into sell offs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-03-22_1940_ugly.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #799 (permalink)
Elite Member
Arkansas
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: TF, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 86 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 192 given, 134 received


mfbreakout View Post
Hi Wirechild,

" My most recent, this past week, oil company purchases were NOV and CVX. I will continue to add to them if they drop more and will take some profits if I can get 20% or more return in the next few months. I can hold them for a couple years though if needed.".


Even swing traders have stop loss or a point when premise is wrong. I have been looking at integrated Oil companies to buy for swing trading ( months, years etc) but can not figure out stop loss. How do you figure out stop loss? I know you ONLY look at fundamentals but i hope startegy is not to just keep buying into sell offs.

I don't have a physical stop loss and seldom have an exact stop on long positions, I am a lot more strict with the short positions though. I continue to evaluate them, usually once a week, and if something fundamentally changes then I will sell. I also will sell if I believe there are better returns somewhere else, a different company or a different industry. Earnings are usually a big part of my swing trades, but for now I am not as concerned about them as I expect a lot of turbulence.

If price drops another 4+% and I still believe in the position then I will add. This is not an approach I would normally take, but I do believe these companies will weather the storm and come out leaner and meaner on the other side of this. No idea how long it will take or if I am willing to stick it out. Only time will tell...

I will try to put together a list of each my swing holdings later this week with my reasoning for picking them and my current thoughts.

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to wirechild for this post:
 
  #800 (permalink)
Elite Member
Arkansas
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: TF, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 86 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 192 given, 134 received



mfbreakout View Post
CL has no self respect. She drops 1-2 % on drop of a hat. Please come up.

This is why I have avoided CL. I have traded it very poorly in the past and I can't get my mind wrapped around the huge swings it makes. Just recently it went from -4% to +4% in 3 hours... Not for me.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Battlestations: Show us your trading desks and win $750 in prizes

August
 

Ask Me Anything (AMA) w/Rod Casilli @ Collective2

Aug 23
 

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 3, Live Trading) w/Ran Aroussi [1PM ET]

Elite only
 

Develop Strategies and Perfect Execution w/Brannigan Barrett @ Axia Futures

Elite only

Introduction to Phillip Capital futures brokerage services

Aug TBD

How Monte Carlo Analysis Can Help Your Trading w/Kevin Davey

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 02:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 4th, 2014 11:47 PM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 03:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 12:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 09:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:46 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-08-17 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.167.194.4