The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:164,112 / 2,037
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:532

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you dont need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 532  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #71 (permalink)
Market Wizard
St Thomas, USVI
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,977 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,661 given, 3,041 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


madLyfe View Post

I think tastytrade do some great educational pieces. This is a good one for many people


tigertrader View Post
that cl has a -.91 correlation with bonds, and a +.97 correlation with canadian dollar, and a 1.00 correlation with rb, and that lead/lag relationships exist on a daily basis.

And according to tastytrade...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #72 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 682 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 603 received

News maybe you can use

Steepest Drop in U.S. Oil Rigs Shows OPEC Prevailing - Bloomberg

Reply With Quote
 
  #73 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,233 received

Trading



SMCJB View Post
Question @mfbreakout when you say "when the term structure changes" what are you looking for/at? I personnally do not trade CL flat price, but I do trade term structure so I am curious what you mean.

On another note I shared a different article with a friend in the shipping industry where media sources talked about people utilizing VLCCs as floating storage. They interestingly contradicted that story and said at this point there is little evidence of that happening and that the VLCC market is actually quiet weak,

Hi SMCJB,

By term structure i mean it need to move back from contango to backwardation. As far as technical evidence i am looking for that Crude Oil has put a bottom in- all CL has to do rip 300 ticks up and never visit that area again- whether it's $44, 40 or whatever it may be. So far, CL rips up and then gives up everything within same day or within next day or two. This kind of behavior is typical when something is extremely bearish. We get strongest rips up - short squeze etc- within a bearish trend and then so called bullish candles, price action etc disappears.

Crude to 'go the way of whale oil': Dennis Gartman.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; January 16th, 2015 at 04:16 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #74 (permalink)
Market Wizard
St Thomas, USVI
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,977 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,661 given, 3,041 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


mfbreakout View Post
By term structure i mean it need to move back from contango to backwardation.

Crude vs 1st Month Spread
14.6 R2
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Crude vs 2nd Month Spread
25.3 R2, Getting Better
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Crude vs 1st-vs-6th Spread
31.0 R2, Getting Better
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Crude vs 2nd-vs-6th Spread
34.0 R2, Getting Even Better
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Crude vs 6th-vs-12th Spread
53.3 R2, Now We Are Talking
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
 
  #75 (permalink)
Webinar Host
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,731 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,810 given, 10,972 received


SMCJB View Post
Crude vs 6th-vs-12th Spread
53.3 R2, Now We Are Talking
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I see a dove...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
  #76 (permalink)
Market Wizard
St Thomas, USVI
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,977 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,661 given, 3,041 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



OPECs strategy is working, and it will be obvious in U.S. production by midyear when growth from shale plays will come to a halt,


Need more than a drop in production growth before S/D corrects.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #77 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Amarillo Texas/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: none
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 12 received

TA analysis on WTI Crude

I have three questions,

1. I have spent 40 minutes on Google trying to find an inverse 1x inverse ETF on WTI crude oil, any recommendations.

2. My price projection for WTI Crude is down to 26 or 28 within two to two and a half months. How best to trade that??
I was just thinking a short EFT 1x, which apparently I am having great difficulty in finding.

3. One thing I am closely examining on the technical analysis side is the angle of the drop in oil price in 2008, If one looks at that on a monthly chart. We have six candlesticks down. Until bottom was hit. Losing and average of about 14 points a month. On this downturn we have about 3 candlesticks down, losing about 9 or 10 points a month. I have a price projection of 26. Now, I need someone here better than math than I am. Should I be looking at this chart arithmetically or in logarithm. The one major difference here between the two is that in 2008 we hit a peak that we declined from. On this downturn, we have a breakdown though support.

Also worthy of note in the 2008 chart is the angle of ascension, once we hit bottom from there. I would assume once this downturn has hit it's bottom WTI crude would do a similar move up.

Reply With Quote
 
  #78 (permalink)
Market Wizard
St Thomas, USVI
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,977 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,661 given, 3,041 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


e4williams View Post
I have spent 40 minutes on Google trying to find an inverse 1x inverse ETF on WTI crude oil, any recommendations.

40mins??
SCO seems to be what you want.
Crude Oil ETF Database

I don't understand #3 so cant help you there.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #79 (permalink)
Elite Member
Florida
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Favorite Futures: YM, ES, NQ, CL, ZB
 
trendwaves's Avatar
 
Posts: 740 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 2,809 given, 2,423 received


Quoting 
2. My price projection for WTI Crude is down to 26 or 28 within two to two and a half months. How best to trade that??
I was just thinking a short EFT 1x, which apparently I am having great difficulty in finding.

You can also look at option strategies against USO, as simple as buying a put, selling (writing) a call, or the various bear vertical spread strategies.

One thing you have to be cautious of is the effect of contango on USO or other commodity ETF, because USO is priced in front month only, so monthly rollover of futures contracts with contango will affect future performance. This article explains the current situation with respect to ETF's based on crude oil ... The Cruel Oil-Market Math Conspiring Against ETF Bulls - Bloomberg


Quoting 
Also worthy of note in the 2008 chart is the angle of ascension, once we hit bottom from there. I would assume once this downturn has hit it's bottom WTI crude would do a similar move up.

A bigger difference today compared to 2008 is the US Dollar. You really need to be comparing the US Dollar against Crude Oil to understand what is happening today. The trade your considering is also a trade on the future price of the US Dollar against the Yen and Euro. Currently we have collapsing global demand, primarily asia, combined with a strong uptrend in the US Dollar. In 2008, we had steady to increasing global demand within an environment of a weak dollar policy in effect whereby the brief dollar rally mid-year quickly reversed back to close the year back below long term support at the 80 level, and thereby allowing oil to reverse trend and rocket higher. So, with that backdrop, unless the dollar trend reverses course, the best oil will be able to do is find a low somewhere and drift sideways in a trading range. With that said, we are now within the window of time that starts a bullish seasonal period for oil, (from mid-January to late April).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Be Patient and Trade Smart

Last edited by trendwaves; January 18th, 2015 at 11:50 AM. Reason: added 10 year CL monthly chart
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to trendwaves for this post:
 
  #80 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,937 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,302 given, 31,575 received



trendwaves View Post
You can also look at option strategies against USO, as simple as buying a put, selling (writing) a call, or the various bear vertical spread strategies.

One thing you have to be cautious of is the effect of contango on USO or other commodity ETF, because USO is priced in front month only, so monthly rollover of futures contracts with contango will affect future performance. This article explains the current situation with respect to ETF's based on crude oil ... The Cruel Oil-Market Math Conspiring Against ETF Bulls - Bloomberg



A bigger difference today compared to 2008 is the US Dollar. You really need to be comparing the US Dollar against Crude Oil to understand what is happening today. The trade your considering is also a trade on the future price of the US Dollar against the Yen and Euro. Currently we have collapsing global demand, primarily asia, combined with a strong uptrend in the US Dollar. In 2008, we had steady to increasing global demand within an environment of a weak dollar policy in effect whereby the brief dollar rally mid-year quickly reversed back to close the year back below long term support at the 80 level, and thereby allowing oil to reverse trend and rocket higher. So, with that backdrop, unless the dollar trend reverses course, the best oil will be able to do is find a low somewhere and drift sideways in a trading range. With that said, we are now within the window of time that starts a bullish seasonal period for oil, (from mid-January to late April).


all commodity prices were were high for the past 7 years because the dollar was weak. and, now the dollar is back to more normal levels, and commodity prices have adjusted. however, the demand side of the equation is only one part of the story; and in fact, only 44% of the drop in oil prices is attributable to broader demand factors. there has also been a 65% surge in u.s. crude production in the past 4 years, which was driven by new drilling technologies. eventually, falling oil prices will have the effect of reducing supply, and stimulating demand, and oil prices will rebound. therefore, it's wrong to think this is primarily a demand side problem, especially, if you factor in the the saudi's actions. this is an important distinction, because lower oil prices, that result from increased supplies, will likely be supportive of future economic growth.

Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Battlestations: Show us your trading desks and win $750 in prizes

August
 

Ask Me Anything (AMA) w/Rod Casilli @ Collective2

Aug 23
 

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 3, Live Trading) w/Ran Aroussi [1PM ET]

Elite only
 

Develop Strategies and Perfect Execution w/Brannigan Barrett @ Axia Futures

Elite only

Introduction to Phillip Capital futures brokerage services

Aug TBD

How Monte Carlo Analysis Can Help Your Trading w/Kevin Davey

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 02:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 4th, 2014 11:47 PM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 03:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 12:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 09:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:19 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-08-17 in 0.10 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.196.18.46