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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,679 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 20th, 2015, 04:10 PM   #781 (permalink)
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Today it was market turn to take some of the money back after monster runs i had on Wedneday and Thursday. It's all part of the trading vs DAY DREAMING. After missing longs during the first 30 minutes from 9 am, all i can do is try shorts above 47 area.

Cover short 46.44 and did some more damage control. Returns and Risk need to match. One can not risk $500 and make $10k

I also think that today's gap you pointed out has to be filled. But most likely it not gonna happen today.

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Old March 20th, 2015, 06:04 PM   #782 (permalink)
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Bloomberg:- Here's the Next Biggest Threat to Global Crude Oil Prices

Bloomberg:- Here's the Next Biggest Threat to Global Crude Oil Prices

(Bloomberg) -- The next big threat to oil prices isnít from OPEC or Bakken shale. Itís Russian samovars, or teapots. Simple refineries that process crude into fuel oil are scaling back, because when oil prices slump, the government reduces the discount that these refiners -- known as teapots to those in the industry -- get for exporting fuel. They use less crude, freeing it up for sale abroad, which in turn adds to the global glut. Russia may increase oil exports by as much as 250,000 barrels a day this year, according to James Henderson, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies whoís followed the countryís energy industry for more than 20 years. That would equate to 5 percent growth in shipments, the most in at least a decade.




Tangent....

Isn't the additional part of this story/argument that there will be less fuel oil available?

(When you heat/distill crude, as a rule of thumb the lighter the product (which boils at the lowest temperatures), the greater the value. Fuel Oil is one of the heavier and least valuable products.)

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Old March 20th, 2015, 06:41 PM   #783 (permalink)
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@SMCJB

What is more important that "normal" refineries do never use either light or heavy oil. They need both. Increased supply of heavy oil (which is main Russian export grade) doesn't really matter. Concurrent similar increase in light oil grades supply will definitely brings more pain for oil prices, otherwise market should ignore that. Also, extra 250k bbl/day of heavy oil supply isn't big enough to move prices. It isn't Libyan crude and most likely won't affect larger picture. So, I disagree with Mr. BBG on that


Last edited by Alphachase; March 20th, 2015 at 06:49 PM.
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Old March 20th, 2015, 07:35 PM   #784 (permalink)
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It seems like we have have some swing traders here, not sure why they do not post their thnking, set ups.

I trade intraday, actually, but I look for numbers that, in context, will hopefully clue me in to the high or low for the day. Write it down in a journal every night and try to work from it in the morning. Would post them but I'm wrong half the time. Hahahahaha

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Old March 20th, 2015, 08:13 PM   #785 (permalink)
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I trade intraday, actually, but I look for numbers that, in context, will hopefully clue me in to the high or low for the day. Write it down in a journal every night and try to work from it in the morning. Would post them but I'm wrong half the time. Hahahahaha

George Soros win % is 47%. You are in good company. For some reason Soros always seems to have his biggest position on the winning trades. That's the name of the game. I want to put on some trades on SWING basis but no one seems to put up any trades or share set ups etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 21st, 2015, 12:51 AM   #786 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
It seems like we have have some swing traders here, not sure why they do not post their thnking, set ups.

I would second @mfbreakout and encourage any Crude, or even oil traders in general, to post, whether, swing, day trade, fundamental, technical, informational etc etc - it can only help.

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Old March 21st, 2015, 01:48 AM   #787 (permalink)
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I was just doing some margin analysis.
Thought others here might find it interesting so posting just in case.
This is for Thursday 19th, Maintenance Margin Only.
Since J5 expired today, everything should be moved up 1 row for current margins.
 
Code
Futures    Spreads     Butterfly's
J5 $4900   JK5 $1050   JKM  $950
K5 $4800   KM5  $290   KMN  $300
M5 $4700   MN5  $260   MNQ  $150
N5 $4500   NQ5  $250   NQU  $125
Q5 $4350   QU5  $210   QUV   $76
U5 $4250   UV5  $210   UVX  $125
V5 $4150   VX5  $180   VXZ   $76
X5 $4100   XZ5  $170   XZ5F6 $76
Z5 $4050   Z5F6 $150   Z5FG6 $76
F6 $4000   FG6  $140   FGH6  $76
G6 $3950   GH6  $200   GHJ6 $125
H6 $3900   HJ6  $150   HJK6 $100
J6 $3900   JK6  $210   JKM6 $100
K6 $3850   KM6  $150   KMN6 $100
M6 $3750   MN6  $190   MNQ6 $100
N6 $3700   NQ6  $150   NQU6 $150
Q6 $3700   QU6  $200   QUV6 $150
U6 $3600   UV6  $140   UVX6 $100
V6 $3600   VX6  $190   VXZ6  $51
X6 $3550   XZ6  $140   XZ6F7$100
I believe the non-linear/bumpy Spread and Butterfly margins are caused by the way CME/NYMEX define their margin tiers. Spreads across tiers have higher rates than spreads within tiers.

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Old March 21st, 2015, 12:00 PM   #788 (permalink)
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Key Levels for Trading Crude Oil


SMCJB View Post
I would second @mfbreakout and encourage any Crude, or even oil traders in general, to post, whether, swing, day trade, fundamental, technical, informational etc etc - it can only help.

I have been following this thread for a short time. Really helpful information and appreciated. Nothing new or profound but wanted to contribute because this (and other CL threads) are invaluable.

I am a member of a small group of crude oil traders and we meet daily for a few hours using Google+. I scalp the CL, another member extensively trades CL options and a few stocks like K, IBM, GOOG., and ETFs like IWM, USO, SPY, TBT, and TLT. Another member does both. A few things we are focused on at this time are (not in order of priority):

1) Retracements/pullbacks, especially significant swings, and the developing movement between the day's high and low. 50% fib retracements are very common. Plus mindful of 70-80% retracements and 120-130% extensions.
2) Prior day's pit close, Y-high, Y-low, and today's open. And Globex highs and lows.
3) Standard floor pivots. Daily, Weekly, Monthly.
4) Trend lines.

I watch videos, webinars, and sit in on free trade room trials. I am interested in leaning new strategies, techniques, or anything that I am not aware of that may add to my personal trading toolbox. I am currently evaluating TPO and volume profile charts to see if they add value.

As most often there at least 1-2 significant moves every day, I try to anticipate or identify them as quickly as possible. I am not so good at holding on to the runners, so happy with 10-20 tick trades.

I use unirenko, and tick charts in complimentary fashion , and currently favor 10R-5O-2T unirenko bars. I am guilty of over- tweaking the settings, but less so lately. futures.io (formerly BMT) threads have been mostly helpful in this regard.

I also use a 5-range chart and 100-volume chart for drawing intraday trend lines. I just find them easier to use.

I use a few indicators obtained from futures.io (formerly BMT), NT, and TS forums plus a few of my own Tradestation indicators. I use them for entries when they "fire" in concert with the above key levels. I am not convinced they are any better than others, but seem to fit my style of trading.

I look forward to following this thread.

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Old March 21st, 2015, 02:48 PM   #789 (permalink)
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Thanks but i am all set if i need to analyze 10 years of data with 1.5 million trades to get 5 ticks? If one thinks that he/she can beat GS, Citadel algos with whatever- keep dreaming. Human mind has a better chance than some algos selling for $249/month. Day trading is hard enough. We tend to make sure we never have a successful long term career by focusing on Mikey mouse trades in the name of ORDER FLOW. A home based full time reatil trader trying to make 100% living from day trading has NO CHANCE while competing HFT firms and their resources.

NOTE: My friend does use this as an add on to his own discretionary trading to keep an eye on some unusual volume behaviour etc. I personally do not like anything where BULLS are in control and then 4 minutes later BEARS are in control within 30 ticks range.

NOTE: Any order flow tool/presentation i have seen ( and i have most them all ), the presenter/owner/developer is in a rush to cover some after trade has moved in his favour 3 ticks or something like that. Why? becuase they see numbers jumping up and down at the speed of light and they are scared.

NOTE: This does not mean ORDER FLOW tools are bad. Anything is bad if it forces a trader to take Mikey Mouse trades. I know some traders who use their order flow tools quite successfully but it took them 2-5 years just to get handle on this and they are not covering their positions for single digit ticks when the set up calls for a 60 to 100+ ticks.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; March 21st, 2015 at 09:25 PM.
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Old March 21st, 2015, 08:53 PM   #790 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
NOTE: Any order flow tool/presentation i have seen ( and i have most them all ), the presenter/owner/developer is in a rush to cover some after trade has moved in his favour 3 ticks or something like that. Why? becuase they see numbers jumping up and down at the speed of light and they are scared.

What is wrong with a 3 tick gain on a clean 100 tick swing?

Good points MFB!

If you can keep your wits about you while all others are losing theirs, and blaming you....The world will be yours and everything in it, what's more, you'll be a man, my son. - Kipling
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