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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #771 (permalink)
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Couple of more points from previous post regarding Quad witching days.

1) Expect price stalling after every 30-40 ticks move.
2) 60-100 ticks move from where? from yesterday low, yesterday high? I just look at Globex session high and low as refrence points.
3) When some indicator is showing buy, buy after 60-100 ticks move, i short and vice versa. I do that typically any way but Quad witching days, ATR is typically smaller than rest of normal trading days. It's a true VIDEO GAME type of day.
4) Number of trades is much smaller than rest of the days. I do not take more than 4-6 trades on normal days any way. I wait, wait and then wait some more.

NOTE: I just listened to an excellent interview of John Burbank of Passport Capital. One key take away " PRICE IS A LIAR". What do we here all day long " PRICE IS KING". No wonder he is worth couple of billions and rest are engaged in DAY DREAMING.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #772 (permalink)
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US $ and CL has been trading tick for tick in inverse relationship for months now. I do not trade CL without US $ chart front and center.

Out of long from 44.95 at 45.40



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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$ kept falling and CL kept going up.

1) Short 46.68. Stopped out 47.21.

2) reshort 47.08. Cover some 46.54 and stopped out on rest.

3) Reshort 47.02. Cover 46.60. Flat. Overall in the hole for the day unless i manage to get another 50 ticks.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I know its expiration day but J/K spread in 40c with our current stocks is shall we say surprising to me.
That's in a $1/bbl in the last 5 trading sessions while K/M is unchanged and M/N has actually widened 10c over the same period!


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I know its expiration day but J/K spread in 40c with our current stocks is shall we say surprising to me.
That's in a $1/bbl in the last 5 trading sessions while K/M is unchanged and M/N has actually widened 10c over the same period!


I have been looking at these spreads closer the last few months. I still haven't found an actionable trade from them yet. Any material out there that you can share that might help point me in the right direction? I am a longer term swing trader though so that might be why I haven't seen much into it, not sure...

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New York Times Breaking News: Obama Administration Unveils Federal Fracking Regulations

The Obama administration on Friday unveiled the nation’s first major federal regulations on hydraulic fracturing, the controversial technique for oil and gas drilling that has led to a dramatic increase in American energy production but has also raised concerns about health and safety risks.

The Interior Department began drafting the rules in Mr. Obama’s first term after breakthroughs in the technology, also known as fracking, led to a surge in the production of oil and gas.

The fracking boom has put the United States on track to soon become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. But environmentalists fear that the technique, which involves injecting a cocktail of chemicals deep underground to fracture the rocks around oil and gas deposits, could contaminate surrounding water supplies and wildlife.

The new rules will apply only to oil and gas wells drilled on public lands, even though the vast majority of fracking in the United States is done on private land. The rules will cover about 100,000 wells, according to the Interior Department.

Full Story :- http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/21/us/politics/obama-administration-unveils-federal-fracking-regulations.html

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Quoting 
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -56 to 1069 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 56 rigs from last week to 1069, with oil rigs down 41 to 825, gas rigs down 15 to 242, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

U.S. Rig Count is down 734 rigs from last year at 1803, with oil rigs down 648, gas rigs down 84, and miscellaneous rigs down 2.

The U.S. Offshore rig count is 37, down 11 rigs from last week, and down 18 rigs year over year.

The report is also available on their corporate website

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Wasn't trading CL today, but my targets for the day that i put in my journal last night were pretty far off. I need to start watching the dollar more.

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mfbreakout View Post
$ kept falling and CL kept going up.

1) Short 46.68. Stopped out 47.21.

2) reshort 47.08. Cover some 46.54 and stopped out on rest.

3) Reshort 47.02. Cover 46.60. Flat. Overall in the hole for the day unless i manage to get another 50 ticks.

Today it was market turn to take some of the money back after monster runs i had on Wedneday and Thursday. It's all part of the trading vs DAY DREAMING. After missing longs during the first 30 minutes from 9 am, all i can do is try shorts above 47 area.

Cover short 46.44 and did some more damage control. Returns and Risk need to match. One can not risk $500 and make $10k



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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It seems like we have have some swing traders here, not sure why they do not post their thnking, set ups.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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