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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #751 (permalink)
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pepelucho View Post
Nice call. That CL pop after the announcement was shocking. In an environment where oil supply / demand balance seems to dictate prices, why would the Fed no longer being 'Patient' affect the price so severely ? Short squeeze ?

Oil is negatively correlated with the dollar.

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pepelucho View Post
Nice call. That CL pop after the announcement was shocking. In an environment where oil supply / demand balance seems to dictate prices, why would the Fed no longer being 'Patient' affect the price so severely ? Short squeeze ?



Fed Policy of raising interest in June is off the table. This put a bid under stock market across the board and Crude. Basically, US $ at all time highs while every country in the world is debasing their currency is not good for US exports etc. There is more to this than my analysis. Fed does not want US $ keep making new highs. But they can only do so much. Ultimately macro headwinds will keep dictating the direction of $ etc.

A trader has to be aware of major variables which can impact a trade. As far as SUPPLY/DEMAND issue of crude oil goes, it's still on the the table and will keep the pressure on prices. A $3 move does not change a trend which has been under way for over a year. This bounce needs to be celebrated becuase it's easier to put on shorts with size into the bounce vs at a location where CL is already down 5% for the week.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Please, please bounce some more- are my prayers for CL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #754 (permalink)
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How have you guys traded the last few days?

Ive found it choppy and lite on "real" volume.
For instance I couldnt trade after the inventory numbers today or FOMC and I usually profit on them big orderflow numbers.
Anybody else?

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125 ticks of bounce is out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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xylem View Post
How have you guys traded the last few days?

Ive found it choppy and lite on "real" volume.
For instance I couldnt trade after the inventory numbers today or FOMC and I usually profit on them big orderflow numbers.
Anybody else?


There was massive Volme after FOMC minutes. This is as good it gets. Rest of the week- no volume, that's why one needs other set ups besides volume/order flow setups. If we have volume on most days, it will be a walk in the park to trade CL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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One time framing area needs to get filled. I doubt it will get filled during Asian session today. Asian session typical range is 50 ticks. CL has already moved twice the range.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
125 ticks of bounce is out.

I got out at 46.10 on short fom 46.96 thinking CL will rotate between 46 to 47. CL is at 45.30 as of 7.34 am. Damn. Trying long here. Looks like we are back to typical back and forth tight range after yesterday FOMC minutes rip up. Price staying below yesterday close throughout Globex is not a good sign for bulls. Asian and Euro session traders had no interest in bidding CL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 19th, 2015 at 07:50 AM.
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Getting less excited about my longs. Cut down the size as it seems like CLK5 is poised to test one time framing area from yesterday. Leaving some on in case she does not.
I have been fan of Adam Grimmes for 4 years. He did a webinar yesterday at futures.io (formerly BMT), if one has not watched it, you may want to watch it. I read his blog once or twice a week. He put lot of nonsense traders use in perspective and how prices are random/noise. Why day trading is more difficult than swing trading (He does not day trade any more).



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; March 19th, 2015 at 08:32 AM.
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I was listening to Chief Forex strategist of UBS or some top tier firm yesterday , don't remeber the firm name ( He has been declared top forex strategist 3 years in a row). He said lot of things but i just latched on to whatever i was already thinking. All of us like what we already have in my mind.
His comments were about US $ probably have put top in for the time being but he laid out some other things with it. I ignored other conditions ( they were above my head) and latched on to US $ top etc. Combined this with FOMC minutes rip up in CL, i am having hard time believing CL at 45. Not that i was not prepared for it. I just did not belive she will give up all the JUICE from yesterday during Globex session.

This is an example of how our own bias can impact/change reality. My inner voice was saying yesterday to leave some shorts on but one has to believe to stay put. Just dreaming about is not going to cut it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 19th, 2015 at 08:45 AM.
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