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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #741 (permalink)
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CL has tested shorts RESOLVE like i have not seen in a while. Still short. Shorted 42.68, 42.54 on FLUSH UP before DOE report, Cover some 42.26. My dreams of 40 area getting tested is getting SHAKY by the minute. Looks like FOMC minutes will be the next catalyst.

For me, shorts will be over for the time being if CL rips above 43.20 area. If forces beyond our control wants to defend 42- it does not matter what my patterns, context etc.. are telling me. I have to adjust. Time to listen some of gentle George songs.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 18th, 2015 at 11:15 AM.
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SMCJB View Post
@mfbreakout how many hours a day do you trade?
Asian, Euro , NY, seems like your always trading.

When certian MACRO catalyst are under way, i do tend to get all excited. I normally do not trade Globex session unless macro head winds are all around. Otherwise 8.30 am till 2.30 pm eastern time. When i trade Globex session, i place stop loss and do not watch screen. So Globex trades are more relaxing vs NY RTH session.



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US $ over bought, CL over sold. FOMC minutes will either get CLOCK reset or over bought will become more over bought and oversold will become more oversold.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I was reading some traders post. Long above 42.50 and short below 42.40. I said THANKS but no THNAKS. They were trading some wave patterns.

No trades now till FOMC minutes are out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Too complex and all the work for 12 ticks. An example of some pattern. No context but busy drawing lines all day.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #746 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
US $ over bought, CL over sold. FOMC minutes will either get CLOCK reset or over bought will become more over bought and oversold will become more oversold.


YELLEN: Just because we're not using the word 'patient' doesn't mean we're going to be impatient

Dovih statement- Key word " PATIENCE" remained in the statement. A CNBC host was wondering why CL is up? Trade first and ask questions later= Mark Fisher. 42 level is secure. They had every opportunity and reason to break it but no go.

" For me, shorts will be over for the time being if CL rips above 43.20 area. If forces beyond our control wants to defend 42- it does not matter what my patterns, context etc.. are telling me. I have to adjust. " Trade the Plan not candles etc.



NOTE: I will trade CLK5 contract from tomorrow.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #747 (permalink)
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What's next. What's in store for Thursday and Friday? I will have a better sense as to what Asian and European traders do during Globex session.

My hope is that CL runs another 200-300 ticks to the upside. It will be easier to find short location. Otherwise have to wait for pullbacks to try longs on Thursday.



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OVX down, $ down = CL up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Don't you guys think crude (and euro - WTF? ) is getting extremely overbought short term?

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mfbreakout View Post
US $ over bought, CL over sold. FOMC minutes will either get CLOCK reset or over bought will become more over bought and oversold will become more oversold.

Nice call. That CL pop after the announcement was shocking. In an environment where oil supply / demand balance seems to dictate prices, why would the Fed no longer being 'Patient' affect the price so severely ? Short squeeze ?

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