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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,828 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 17th, 2015, 09:20 PM   #731 (permalink)
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Thanks TravisD. CL is at 42.41 and now i am thinking how come i did not hold all the cars on short from 43.90 area? Like most discretinary traders i get carried away.

By the way- finding edges of a trade on day trading basis is very difficult. That's why i sit and pray for bounces all day.

I agree that finding the edges with CL is a tough, organic process. If I hadn't learned from another savvy CL trader's journal to trade with a disaster stop loss there wouldn't be very much hope for my trading account.

Looking at next month's contract(May 15) it is trading at almost exactly $2 higher. Does this effect any of your guys' trades, or is there a way to capitalize on this difference in price?

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Old March 17th, 2015, 09:41 PM   #732 (permalink)
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I agree that finding the edges with CL is a tough, organic process. If I hadn't learned from another savvy CL trader's journal to trade with a disaster stop loss there wouldn't be very much hope for my trading account.

Looking at next month's contract(May 15) it is trading at almost exactly $2 higher. Does this effect any of your guys' trades, or is there a way to capitalize on this difference in price?


May Contract trading $2 higher has no impact on my trading. I am staying short and added to shorts after API report.


NOTE: A word about Market Profile. When i first saw Julian video about Auction Market Theory i was so impressed that i went to the deep end of the pool looking at Volume Profile/Market Profile from all kinds of angles. It turned out to be a waste of time as far as day trading Crude goes. I was countinhg LVN, HVN, POC etc. all day long. I have yet to meet a Volume Profile trader who is trading CL successfully based on HVN, LVN etc. Scalping does not counts.

Bottom line do not get bogged down with too much information.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 17th, 2015 at 09:49 PM.
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Old March 17th, 2015, 09:47 PM   #733 (permalink)
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What MF said. The spread isn't bothering me at all. Looking for a short opportunity to hold at least for a while here in the afterhours right around 44.85. My gut tells me that as volume shifts into the contract in the morning, and the oil report comes out, it's going to take a beating. Only traded a few months worth of oil report days, but there doesn't seem to be any new demand, or any real production cuts as of yet. I don't know about the 20-30 dollar bottom everyone is taking about, but for the moment, overall buying pressure isn't here.

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Old March 17th, 2015, 11:54 PM   #734 (permalink)
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TravisD View Post
Looking at next month's contract(May 15) it is trading at almost exactly $2 higher. Does this effect any of your guys' trades, or is there a way to capitalize on this difference in price?

The 52c narrowing of the front month spread in a day like today has to be considered interesting. As full as storage is, somebody wants to own April.

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Old March 18th, 2015, 12:03 AM   #735 (permalink)
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Old March 18th, 2015, 12:08 AM   #736 (permalink)
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All the data on your chart up until the last point is From the J contract, the last point is from K.

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Old March 18th, 2015, 08:16 AM   #737 (permalink)
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May Contract trading $2 higher has no impact on my trading. I am staying short and added to shorts after API report.


NOTE: A word about Market Profile. When i first saw Julian video about Auction Market Theory i was so impressed that i went to the deep end of the pool looking at Volume Profile/Market Profile from all kinds of angles. It turned out to be a waste of time as far as day trading Crude goes. I was countinhg LVN, HVN, POC etc. all day long. I have yet to meet a Volume Profile trader who is trading CL successfully based on HVN, LVN etc. Scalping does not counts.

Bottom line do not get bogged down with too much information.

CL at 42.20 area and suddenly no one is posting charts on different forums for long set ups. Now that is worrisome by itself. I am thinking if everyone bets are stacked from the short side- this is not good. But sometimes consenus is RIGHT. I am just trying to make sure i do not over leverage a position. That's all i have to do.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 18th, 2015, 08:30 AM   #738 (permalink)
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When a trader is taking position from the wrong side - Counter trend trades, following seems to be progression for his attempts to find support. For what ever reason, they keep looking at CL fall from $100+ area to $50 and counting , they keep trying longs in the name of value etc.

1) 5 or 15 minutes channels, trend lines etc.. When they get busted.

2) Time for 30 minutes

3) Then 1 and 4 hour time period

4) Now, they want to look at REAL long term support so it's time for daily, weekly, monthly levels

Switching time period not going to cut it. It's much easier and simpler to trade with the trend till it changes. Today, with DOE report plus Fed minutes at 2 pm, chances to make some REAL dough and chances to loose one shirt also. Be careful.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 18th, 2015 at 08:38 AM.
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Old March 18th, 2015, 08:46 AM   #739 (permalink)
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How i am trying to manage short trades since yesterday.

#1) held 1 car from the short side @43.80 area. After API report 4.30 pm yesterday, added to shorts 4 contracts @ 42.94.
Cover all 42.45.


#2) Shorted 42.76 during Asain session yesterday. Covered some 42.21 this morning and holding rest. Lookng for areas to add to short position.

In my experience after around 100 ticks move, CL tends to take a breather. She tend to just get stuck for hours, bounce some and then continue in the direction of the prevailing trend. I am trying to stay with the trend while covering some shorts along the way. 99% of the time i am FLAT before NY open, DOE report, FOMC minutes etc. No need to be a hero. One can always put the trade back on.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 18th, 2015 at 08:54 AM.
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Old March 18th, 2015, 11:19 AM   #740 (permalink)
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@mfbreakout how many hours a day do you trade?
Asian, Euro , NY, seems like your always trading.

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