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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,563 / 1,754
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 16th, 2015, 11:32 AM   #711 (permalink)
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No interest in longs. Short 44.30, add to shorts 43.96. I have been holding shorts for hour and a half now. Slow predictable down moves means all the reasons to hold on to the shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 16th, 2015, 11:46 AM   #712 (permalink)
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If Asain and Euro session traders had no interest in bidding CL up- why should i even think about longs? Only shorts so far. For the last seven months ONLY thing which made sense is to identify areas to short CL vs figuring out where the bottom is or where to go long. Of course there were some long set ups and opportuities along the way but for me biggest trades have been from the short side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 16th, 2015, 12:27 PM   #713 (permalink)
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Could not hold shorts any longer plus lunch doldrums on hands. Cover and holding runner.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 16th, 2015, 12:46 PM   #714 (permalink)
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One of the sure way of knowing that a trader will not make it as a day trader trading CL with stat. like following.


1) Gain/ Loss Numbers of contracts traded.

$ 500 150

$1300 250


$630 275


$1600 575


$200 100


$1100 650


$ 120 230

$875 120


$ 2100 350

$475 200



What's wrong with this picture? 10 straight day of positive gains, No -ve days, No draw downs and the trader made $8900 in TEN DAYS. This is a super trader. Not in my book and experience. When a trader is trading 200 round trip contracts in CL, he should be clearing $10-20k a day. This trader is trading scared and will not make it over a long term. He is taking excessive risk and leverage. By quickly getting out of trades he thinks he is controlling risk.

NOTE: This is for discretionary traders trading with a capital of $100 to $150K. Algos, HFT, super fast scalpers with 6 figures account size etc. are excluded ( but if that all one can get on a 6 figure trading account , why even trade?)



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old March 16th, 2015, 03:04 PM   #715 (permalink)
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NOTE: This is for discretionary traders trading with a capital of $100 to $150K. Algos, HFT, super fast scalpers with 6 figures account size etc. are excluded ( but if that all one can get on a 6 figure trading account , why even trade?)

Well 25 * $8900 = $222,500/year which on 'most' 6 figure accounts is a pretty decent annualized return. Even at $1M it's a 22% return. Not stellar but not awful.

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Old March 16th, 2015, 03:54 PM   #716 (permalink)
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Well 25 * $8900 = $222,500/year which on 'most' 6 figure accounts is a pretty decent annualized return. Even at $1M it's a 22% return. Not stellar but not awful.

The point i was trying to make was not about rate of return. With this kind of leverage and Mikey Mouse trades- a trader is always very close to blowing his account away unless the trader is a machine and is always trading exactly the same way day in and day out.

My post is not meant for machines. I consider 22% annualized rate of return a stellar rate of return if achieved on a consistent basis year after year. Bernie Madoff was only touting ability of his firm to generate 7% rate of return with very little volatility and managed to grab $50 Billion AUM. If he touted 22% return without significant volatility no one would have given him money to manage. That was his Genius. He knew shophiscated investors are not day dreamers like majority of the population with no more than 2 cents to rub and looking for pie in the sky pipe dreams. So he pitched them exactly what they will get or were getting from any world class insventment firm.

Off course there are exceptions like Soros, Steve Cohen etc but that's another debate. In summary risk adjusted rate of return matters.

Note: Madoff could not even produce 7% rate of return. He tried during first couple of years and then went off to the deep end.

Note: The post was also directed towards some of the traders who are trying or have passed the combines at Top Step traders. They pay $2.20 per contract and with this kind of volume , commission alone is $6380. I know off dozen of traders who passed combine with these kind of stats and can not control their excitement on passing and when they get put back in te training camp they wonder what happened. They are trading this kind of size on $100 to 150K account- which is beyond insane.

Note: I am aware that traders with this kind of volume leasse a seat at exchnage and pay 1/2 the cost or even less than a typical trader pays.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 16th, 2015 at 04:39 PM.
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Old March 16th, 2015, 09:39 PM   #717 (permalink)
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Old March 17th, 2015, 12:44 AM   #718 (permalink)
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using nano satellites to predict oil surpluses?

How AI Can Calculate Our Oil Surplus...From Space | WIRED

There's a company out there, Genscape, that does exactly this type of stuff. They install camera's/data readers/etc at all sorts of locations, pipeline compressors, refineries, power plants, storage facilities etc etc and then estimate all sorts of important fundamental data.

I've seen some of their data before and it's pretty amazing. They can tell you a plant/refinary/unit etc tripped hours or days before you will ever see it else where. It's sort of a must have for large energy traders but I think pretty expensive for anybody else.

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Old March 17th, 2015, 12:56 AM   #719 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Well 25 * $8900 = $222,500/year which on 'most' 6 figure accounts is a pretty decent annualized return. Even at $1M it's a 22% return. Not stellar but not awful.


mfbreakout View Post
The point i was trying to make was not about rate of return. With this kind of leverage and Mikey Mouse trades- a trader is always very close to blowing his account away unless the trader is a machine and is always trading exactly the same way day in and day out.

My post is not meant for machines. I consider 22% annualized rate of return a stellar rate of return if achieved on a consistent basis year after year. Bernie Madoff was only touting ability of his firm to generate 7% rate of return with very little volatility and managed to grab $50 Billion AUM. If he touted 22% return without significant volatility no one would have given him money to manage. That was his Genius. He knew shophiscated investors are not day dreamers like majority of the population with no more than 2 cents to rub and looking for pie in the sky pipe dreams. So he pitched them exactly what they will get or were getting from any world class insventment firm.

Off course there are exceptions like Soros, Steve Cohen etc but that's another debate. In summary risk adjusted rate of return matters.

Note: Madoff could not even produce 7% rate of return. He tried during first couple of years and then went off to the deep end.

Note: The post was also directed towards some of the traders who are trying or have passed the combines at Top Step traders. They pay $2.20 per contract and with this kind of volume , commission alone is $6380. I know off dozen of traders who passed combine with these kind of stats and can not control their excitement on passing and when they get put back in te training camp they wonder what happened. They are trading this kind of size on $100 to 150K account- which is beyond insane.

Note: I am aware that traders with this kind of volume leasse a seat at exchnage and pay 1/2 the cost or even less than a typical trader pays.

Please don't take it as criticism, I think you post some excellent stuff here, you just asked a question and I tried to answer.

As I mentioned in another thread recently in response to some similar comments, my style of trading is very different than yours and many/most other people here. What you consider a good risk/return, and a good PnL/contract could be completely different for a different style of trading. I was reading something recently on Eurodollar Butterflies (sorry cant find link) and the question was asked, why would you put that trade on if you only expect 4bp profit, to which the answer was something on the lines of 'well if you have a 1000 on thats 100k, find 10 trades a year like that and thats a Million.'.

Not all trading is like trying to ride a bull, like the CL market. I could never ever trade the way you do... my account would diminish quickly, but I don't trade like you and my account increases nicely. Different Strategies for different people - both can still be right.

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Old March 17th, 2015, 02:11 AM   #720 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
There's a company out there, Genscape, that does exactly this type of stuff. They install camera's/data readers/etc at all sorts of locations, pipeline compressors, refineries, power plants, storage facilities etc etc and then estimate all sorts of important fundamental data.

I've seen some of their data before and it's pretty amazing. They can tell you a plant/refinary/unit etc tripped hours or days before you will ever see it else where. It's sort of a must have for large energy traders but I think pretty expensive for anybody else.

That's interesting. What is in it for the refiner though, is all of their production numbers public info?

Might be a silly question because I don't trade energy futures or options on futures

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