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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,289 / 1,753
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 13th, 2015, 08:54 AM   #701 (permalink)
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Apr/May spread getting hammered. Settled at -208 traded as low as -240 over night.
Brent/WTI back out over $10

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Old March 13th, 2015, 12:04 PM   #702 (permalink)
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Staying short but it's not easy as we get different signals etc.


Slow selling with dead cat bounces of no more than 25 ticks in between is a CLEAR SIGN to stay the course. I covered at 46.10 before NY open and then after 30 minutes reshorted around 46.11. When will i get completely out? Whenever there is a FLUSH DOWN and then reversal of that FLUSH DOWN.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 13th, 2015 at 12:09 PM.
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Old March 13th, 2015, 12:15 PM   #703 (permalink)
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London Close at 11.30 am eastern time plus upcoimg lunch hour plus CL down 3.5%- i wll not be surprised if CL chops around for next hour or so.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 13th, 2015, 02:06 PM   #704 (permalink)
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Baker Hughes weekly rig update (available on their corporate website):


Quoting 
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -67 to 1125 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 67 rigs from last week to 1125, with oil rigs down 56 to 866, gas rigs down 11 to 257, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

U.S. Rig Count is down 684 rigs from last year at 1809, with oil rigs down 595, gas rigs down 87, and miscellaneous rigs down 2.

The U.S. Offshore rig count is 48, down 3 rigs from last week, and down 6 rigs year over year.


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Old March 13th, 2015, 02:08 PM   #705 (permalink)
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I am sure you all are aware of this but just in case, until 3/29, london close is at 12:30 ET. We move forward first week end of March and London does it the last week end of march. Similar situation when we fall back.

For reference:
Daylight saving time dates for United Kingdom ? England ? London between 2014 and 2018

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Old March 13th, 2015, 02:10 PM   #706 (permalink)
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I am sure you all are aware of this but just in case, until 3/29, london close is at 12:30 ET. We move forward first week end of March and London does it the last week end of march. Similar situation when we fall back.

For reference:
Daylight saving time dates for United Kingdom ? England ? London between 2014 and 2018

We know but thanks anyways.

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Old March 13th, 2015, 06:22 PM   #707 (permalink)
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Oil Prices Tumble After IEA Warning - WSJ

If locked try google the title Oil Prices Tumble After IEA Warning.

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Old March 14th, 2015, 10:52 AM   #708 (permalink)
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Zerohedge: Oil Price Faces Another 20% Drop Due To Contango Math

Zerohedge: Oil Price Faces Another 20% Drop Due To Contango Math

I think Zerohedge is rather bleak in its outlook of life and seems to be continually predicting the end of the financial system but I thought you guys might appreciate this article. It claims to reference a Soc Gen piece but extensive Google searching has been unable to find said article
You need to understand the economics of the floating storage play, Soc Gen says.
It walks through the costs of floating storage and makes an argument that prices need to be a lot steeper for it to work. There's what appears to be a nice diagram illustrating this but it's almost unreadable.

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Oil Price Faces Another 20% Drop Due To Contango Math | Zero Hedge

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Old March 14th, 2015, 11:00 AM   #709 (permalink)
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Floating Storage

Interestingly when searching for the Soc Gen article I stumbled upon a plethora of other articles saying the floating storage arbitrage is closed and nobody is doing it.

Platts March 12th:- ANALYSIS: Narrowing crude contango takes steam out of floating storage
The floating storage play eyed by oil traders around the world earlier this year has failed to materialise in any significant manner because of a narrowing of the contango in Brent-related crudes.

Of around 42 VLCCs taken on time charter earlier this year with options for floating storage during the contango driven demand period, only four were confirmed to be doing floating storage in Asia, a VLCC broker in Singapore said.

A London-based broker put the number of VLCCs being used for storage at three. "We have been tracking these ships very closely and, as far as we can see, the DHT Falcon, the Eliza and the Alsace are the only VLCCs being used for floating storage".

Financial Times March 9th :- Traders left adrift as oil storage trade loses its lustre
The world’s biggest oil traders rushed to hire supertankers at the start of the year. The idea was to buy cheap barrels of crude, store it at sea and lock in a profit by selling contracts in the futures market. But only a couple of the almost 40 vessels originally chartered to hold crude offshore for up to 12 months are doing so, shipbrokers and analysts say....
Ship & Bunker March 4th :- Floating Storage Down as "Super Profit" in Crude Market is "Just Not There"

WSJ Feb 26th :- Oil Storage Sinks as Price Bobs / Storing oil in tanker ships is becoming less profitable amid heightened volatility

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Old March 15th, 2015, 05:12 PM   #710 (permalink)
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I have utmost respect for traders seeking to understand price activity to any market.

However, I am at odds with indicators of the modern era.

If Gann or Babson can....with a pencil and paper turn $130 into $12,000 in 1909.... what is your Market Profile going to do for you in comparison?

Either your self-convinced it gives you an edge, or in fact...its a exaggeration for your eyes to relate with.

Here is a measure of proof...out of love, someone is taking the time to help me...


Wyckoff's post to US Congress and Wall Street....publications sustaining Gann's trade decisions and predictions.

Is Gann a fluke or was his perspectives true... as compared to market profile?


I can tell you truthfully, he would not use it.

Gann had his mind... pencil and paper.


Attachment 177879



Have a lovely day.

I had no idea there were wheat options in 1909, I knew agri derivs have existed for centuries but actual listed options back then, wow. Surprised livermore didnt leverage up on these.

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