The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:145,287 / 1,913
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:490

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 490  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #61 (permalink)
Elite Member
wa/ usa
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: schwab, metatrader, OEC,T4,TDameritrade
Favorite Futures: CL ES 6C 6E
 
Posts: 254 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 197 given, 436 received


SMCJB View Post
DOE crude inventories released today. Build of 5.4million barrels to a total of almost 388 million barrels.
US crude stocks are the highest they've been in the last 15 years for this time of year by over 20 million barrels.
Only time US has had more crude in storage in the last 15 years was the spring seasonal peak in 2008 and 2013 when we peaked just below 400million barrels.
US Domestic crude oil production continues to increase and reached 9.2million barrels/day. This is over a 50% increase in the last 3 years, with Jan 2012 production below 6 million/day.

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf


And the fact that it rallied when it had every reason to sell off. It closed yesterday at highs and today was a follow through day. We'll see if it doesn't do a 180 by Monday then a range between 47 to 53 might be set

Reply With Quote
 
  #62 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 679 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 600 received

@tigertrader

This?

-Bill

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #63 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 679 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 600 received

/CL COT report


Commercial short consistently comes in with numbers higher/ more than long - makes sense

Non Com has been getting their ass handed to them, looking at the numbers long only since JUN 14

However looking at the spreading numbers might lend an answer but very little clue as to how the coin toss turned up

So we have % change, maybe that's where "something" lies............

Point is we have two weeks back to back w/ black numbers

Tomorrow??

-Bill_M

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Last edited by WilleeMac; January 15th, 2015 at 06:33 AM. Reason: clarify, long vs short
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #64 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 679 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 600 received

My thoughts on yesterday end of day rally price rout

Close the contract at or above low, take profit etc etc

Nothing more

MAR OI is 427

-Bill

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #65 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,802 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,541 given, 2,709 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


garyboy275 View Post
Dont want to start an argument but the spreads are just going to kill you before it turns around and runs and CL can trade 10 or 20 for a few years before it goes back up. Sure if it does go back upto 100 u d make a killing or if you get a V bottom. But in either case you dont have to hold it indefinitely --either time it or get lucky


SMCJB View Post
Agree, roll cost could be enormous. You could easily buy $20 oil, be holding $20 oil in a years time and lost $7.50 in roll costs.

Financial Times, Jan15th 2015
Commodities explained: Contango

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #66 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,225 received

trading




One of the clear signs that Crude Oil has put a bottom in when the term structure changes or as the article points out as long as there is oil on the market looking for a home to be stored- crude will continue to search for a bottom. Till then every bounce is shortable. Bigger the bounce ( like today) bigger the opportunities.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #67 (permalink)
Elite Member
Florida
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Favorite Futures: YM, ES, NQ, CL, ZB
 
trendwaves's Avatar
 
Posts: 738 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 2,782 given, 2,415 received

Seasonal's

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Mid-Feb to Late- April looks very strong seasonally. And a second leg up June-August.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Be Patient and Trade Smart
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to trendwaves for this post:
 
  #68 (permalink)
Elite Member
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG, TOS
Favorite Futures: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,638 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,214 given, 1,007 received


dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
  #69 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,802 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,541 given, 2,709 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


mfbreakout View Post
One of the clear signs that Crude Oil has put a bottom in when the term structure changes or as the article points out as long as there is oil on the market looking for a home to be stored- crude will continue to search for a bottom. Till then every bounce is shortable. Bigger the bounce ( like today) bigger the opportunities.

Question @mfbreakout when you say "when the term structure changes" what are you looking for/at? I personnally do not trade CL flat price, but I do trade term structure so I am curious what you mean.

On another note I shared a different article with a friend in the shipping industry where media sources talked about people utilizing VLCCs as floating storage. They interestingly contradicted that story and said at this point there is little evidence of that happening and that the VLCC market is actually quiet weak,

Reply With Quote
 
  #70 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,802 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,541 given, 2,709 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



SMCJB on Dec 19th View Post
WTI and EUR:USD from June 1st till the day before the OPEC Meeting had a 93.5% correlation.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Since the OPEC meeting WTI has plummeted but correlation with EUR:USD has broken down.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Not sure, what if anything that means, but hey I found it interesting.

Can't take credit for the idea, saw it in a presentation by Doug Huggins of Quantitative Markets Analysis in London, although I'm not sure what his exact time period was and he used Brent not WTI,

Charts show NYMEX CL & CME 6E closing prices.


Thxo View Post
Time to buy then ... dont you think?



gain247 View Post
... or maybe sell the EURUSD

And the answer was... Sell the Euro...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


All charts have the same scaling, $5/bbl = 0.02 EUR/USD

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Introducing iSystems with Stage 5 Trading

Apr 27

*NEW* FIO Journal Challenge featuring NinjaTrader ($2,000+ of prizes)

May

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 2) w/Ran Aroussi

Elite only

Ask Me Anything w/Raymond Deux @ NinjaTrader

May 3

An Afternoon with FIO member Softsoap

Elite only
 

Machine Learning & Data Mining Bias w/Kris Longmore @ Robot Wealth

Elite only

Brannigan Barrett (TBA)

Elite only

FIO member Gomi (TBA)

Elite only

FuturesTrader71 (TBA)

Elite only

EasyLanguage Programming w/Chris @ ABC Trading Group

Elite only

Portfolio Diversification w/Brendon Delate

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 02:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 4th, 2014 11:47 PM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 03:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 12:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 09:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:10 AM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-04-27 in 0.20 seconds with 21 queries on phoenix via your IP 107.22.30.231