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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,289 / 1,753
Last Reply:Yesterday (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 10th, 2015, 12:19 PM   #681 (permalink)
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Trade ICE North American Crude - Know the Code

Inforgraphic showing the >20 North American Crudes you can trade on ICE.
(Most of these only trade OTC and are then block cleared but may be interesting anyway.)

Trade ICE North American Crude - Know the Code
https://www.theice.com/crude-grades

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Old March 10th, 2015, 01:39 PM   #682 (permalink)
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STEO for March is now available on EIA website

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Briefly, EIA lowered forecast for WTI to 52.15 for 2015 and raised for Brent to 59.50. Average production in Feb was 9.4, forecast for 2015 is 9.3 and for 2016 is 9.5

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Old March 10th, 2015, 01:57 PM   #683 (permalink)
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WTI seems looking to get out of its 7-day
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Last edited by Alphachase; March 10th, 2015 at 01:59 PM. Reason: Spelling
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Old March 10th, 2015, 02:33 PM   #684 (permalink)
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Only shorts on my mind. Conext and direction of the trades were right but timing was off to get paid when position size was right. Not sure why CL will not get sold during 9 to 10.30 am eastern time peroiod which is typically busy time slot and a time slot for most of my trades.

Direction of the trade was very clear all day except we never now when and how the FAT LADY will sing. It's not easy when CL is just stuck in a tight range and every thing looks like a support. Picking bottoms or reversal areas without REAL buying is never a good idea. Our channels, triangles, HVN, LVN etc have very little value. Longs made sense yesterday at 49.66 for me as some buying showed up and today since NY open there has been none. Looking at charts and saying this is support etc. only goes so far. PRICE has no value.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 10th, 2015, 03:04 PM   #685 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Tim Seymour- of fast money at CNBC has been saying for 2 months now to buy Oil becuase one may not get a chance to buy at these prices. He put the caveat that CL may go to 35 etc. but what if CL does not go there and just slowly keep going up?

What a piece of logic. He said couple of days ago " Considering where US $ is he is very encouraged by CL price action" (lol)

CL has only pulled back 7% since he spoke. I am sure he is $ cost averaging and buying with both hands. He could have been buying with both hands , legs and every thing else but YTD he has nothing to show for. It's not easy being a SWING trader either. I am not sure where his STOP LOSS is but for a Money Manager it's a death sentence where one has been building a position for 3 months, nothing to show for after 3 months and then getting stopped out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 10th, 2015 at 03:16 PM.
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Old March 10th, 2015, 03:23 PM   #686 (permalink)
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So, APIs gestimates are coming out 4:30 PM today. Tomorrow is LTD for Brent options and regular EIA report coming out 10:30 AM.

Take care.

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Old March 10th, 2015, 03:28 PM   #687 (permalink)
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Do not trade without it. There were nothing but shorts in ES, TF, GC since last Friday at least. Traders get so focused on their levels that they do not realize for example ES got sold off 100 full points in 3 days while they got 2 points here and 4 points there and after adding stop outs they are back to where they started at best.

Note: I do not trade ES. Just using ES as an example. I prefer TF but context and trades are similar.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 11th, 2015, 11:09 AM   #688 (permalink)
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I was hoping for a bounce during Globex to get a better location to short but no go. In my mind there is always 2 sides to a coin.

1) Price action is so weak that it does not matter just short it. But i have experienced many times CL bouncing 50-100 ticks while rubber band is stretched.

2) I can say no need to put on a trade. There is no way of knowing what CL will do. Wait for a bounce or wait till DOE report comes out. But then a voice comes out asking what if CL gets sold off 100 to 150 ticks before report comes out?

How to decide? It came down to asking one question. Has anything changed since you started shorting CL yesterday? Answer was NO, so i took the short.

Out flat 48.20. If we did not have upcoming DOE report at 10.30 am , i would have held some shorts. I typically wait 15 minutes after DOE report to decide what to do.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 11th, 2015, 12:19 PM   #689 (permalink)
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Sitting on Hands since covering shorts at 48.20 area. Will try longs if some signs of exhausation to the downside or buying shows up. I can not initiate a new short at 47.40 area since i can not define risk. Sitting on sidelines is also a trading strategy/set up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 12th, 2015, 11:10 AM   #690 (permalink)
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Short 48.42 NY open. Cover 47.72. Looking for longs now. No need to rush to take a position. It takes a long time to get paid with lot of head fakes in between.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; March 12th, 2015 at 11:15 AM. Reason: chart
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