The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 68) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,563 / 1,754
Last Reply:Yesterday (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 9th, 2015, 12:27 PM   #671 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,221 received

Trading

Looks like quite a number of posts over the weekend which had nothing to do with trading. It amazes me as to how people get upset with each other without even knowing each other. Well discretionary traders are a passionate bunch and stuff like this happens here and there. James posted his charts. Bill apparently was talking about something else but it looked like he was making fun of James charts and confusion follows. The same thing happens in trading. Trading is all about looking at a given set of information/data and then acting upon on it..

Now back to trading. The sole purpose of this thread and futures.io (formerly BMT) in general.

#1) Short at NY open.

#2) Had to reverse and go long. Unfortunately $ strength forced me to cut down long position size.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-03-09_1105_longs.png  
Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 12:28 PM   #672 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Florida
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM, CL
 
trendwaves's Avatar
 
Posts: 686 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 2,485 given, 2,103 received

Chart update from last week, same exact price zones as prior charts. The 50.70 level is still an active area of interest.

Trades for this morning: Long on the 30 minute BB breakout up, Short on reversal down off 50.70 . Currently flat.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Be Patient and Trade Smart
Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to trendwaves for this post:
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 12:30 PM   #673 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,221 received

Trading


CORRELATIONS.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-03-09_1013_corelations.png  
Reply With Quote
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 12:31 PM   #674 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,356 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


mfbreakout View Post
CORRELATIONS.

What are you correlating?
Prices? Prices Changes? or Log Price Changes?

Reply With Quote
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 12:54 PM   #675 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,221 received

Trading

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 

SMCJB View Post
What are you correlating?
Prices? Prices Changes? or Log Price Changes?

Rocking Returns is the title of the correlations chart.

Inverse correlations between commodity markets and USD remains surreal. Going back to when #Deflation’s Dominoes started to become readily apparent (let’s use 180-days ago) here are 4 big correlations to keep in mind:



USD vs CRB Commodities Index -0.98
USD vs WTI Oil -0.96
USD vs. Gold -0.55
USD vs SP500 +0.69

In other words, #StrongDollar has perpetuated both Oil and Commodity #Deflation. And now the US stock market is looking for some love from the bond market (or the lack thereof), because both USD + #RatesRising would force funds out of Treasuries.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 01:07 PM   #676 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received

As far as I can see, crude also well correlated (inversely) to USA and TYA.

Nonetheless, in short term gas and disty are better correlated to Brent than WTI.

Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-correlations_20150309.png  
Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to Alphachase for this post:
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 01:16 PM   #677 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,356 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Alphachase View Post
Nonetheless, in short term gas and disty are better correlated to Brent than WTI.

That makes sense since RB and HO are contracts that are based upon NYH, and as such represent North Atlantic pricing rather than MidWest pricing. If we had an LLS (Louisiana Light Sweet) Contract it would also probably correlate higher with Brent than WTI.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 01:25 PM   #678 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received


mfbreakout View Post
because both USD + #RatesRising would force funds out of Treasuries.

Sorry, but I disagree slightly. Higher yields always mean higher returns. And treasuries have also another upside - they can be held as collateral almost everywhere. Depends on global economy situation (and US inflation rates), treasuries may be in high demand for a very long time regardless of how strong the dollar is (unless interest rates jump significantly).

Reply With Quote
     

Old March 9th, 2015, 01:37 PM   #679 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received


SMCJB View Post
That makes sense since RB and HO are contracts that are based upon NYH, and as such represent North Atlantic pricing rather than MidWest pricing. If we had an LLS (Louisiana Light Sweet) Contract it would also probably correlate higher with Brent than WTI.

Exactly. Product exports also add to that. I always try to keep an eye on vessel map. And LLS always correlates higher to Brent. Even Argus thinks so

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to Alphachase for this post:
     

Old March 10th, 2015, 09:31 AM   #680 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,356 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

CME Group :- Oil Collapse: Winners and Losers


CME Group :- Oil Collapse: Winners and Losers
9 Mar 2015
By Erik Norland

The Geopolitical and Economic Consequences of Lower Oil Prices
Since June 30, 2014, crude oil prices have been nearly halved (Figure 1). Still, the direction of oil prices is uncertain and there is a very real possibility that they may remain low for several years. Despite advances in alternative fuels and efforts at conservation, oil remains the life blood of the world economy and essentially the only meaningful transportation fuel. As such, lower oil prices will have enormous economic and political consequences that will be felt globally in a variety of ways...


http://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/oil-collapse-winners-and-losers.html

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:48 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-05 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 23.23.50.247