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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,300 / 1,753
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 5th, 2015, 03:06 PM   #621 (permalink)
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Who wants to Swing trade CL? No Flush down yet to try longs. Short 51.16.

out 50.80. Flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 5th, 2015, 03:09 PM   #622 (permalink)
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Any physical traders out there? What are your thoughts about this new contract?

CHICAGO, March 4, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, LOOP LLC, operator of the largest privately-owned crude oil terminal in the U.S., and NEO Markets, Inc., a leading online marketplace for U.S. physical oil transactions, today announced they had reached a definitive agreement to develop the first-ever physically delivered crude oil storage futures contract.

Yeap I saw that. Very interesting. Be interesting to see whether it trades. The fact that it's a physical makes it very difficult to dabble in, due to the enormous delivery risk, unless your already a physical player at LOOP. Get on the other side of a trade with somebody who intends to take or make delivery and you may not be able to get out.

For those of you who don't know what LOOP is, or the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, it's quite interesting. It's basically an off-loading platform 2.4km offshore of Louisiana that receives 13% of the US's imports.

Wikipedia - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port

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Old March 5th, 2015, 04:43 PM   #623 (permalink)
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Ok,

I officially nominate @SMCJB as Chief (of) Repository Knowledge of this thread

So, that would be CRK as opposed to CIO

Uhhh, errr repository tends to lend itself to the "past"

So in light of the situation, I now nominate said person as CIO

-Bill


Last edited by WilleeMac; March 5th, 2015 at 04:49 PM. Reason: sp, clarify
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Old March 5th, 2015, 06:09 PM   #624 (permalink)
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Every once in a while (read that again) you will get a nice move after 1445-1500PM

There's a reason those candles are painted yellow (Wilders Exponential Average, less than 30% volume of the last 89 bars, + or - 2.35 STD.)

Where's the pit close? Hint: damn near like clock work 1428 to 1430ET. IMO, unless you are on your A-game, stay away 1345ish to 1440ish. I've made some money and I've LOST a bunch of money.

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Old March 5th, 2015, 06:16 PM   #625 (permalink)
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Where's the pit close? Hint: damn near like clock work 1428 to 1430ET. IMO, unless you are on your A-game, stay away 1345ish to 1440ish. I've made some money and I've LOST a bunch of money.

The locals in the IPE Brent Pit in London, back when they still had a pit, used to call the Close "Grab a Grand".

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Old March 5th, 2015, 06:54 PM   #626 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Every once in a while (read that again) you will get a nice move after 1445-1500PM

There's a reason those candles are painted yellow (Wilders Exponential Average, less than 30% volume of the last 89 bars, + or - 2.35 STD.)

Where's the pit close? Hint: damn near like clock work 1428 to 1430ET. IMO, unless you are on your A-game, stay away 1345ish to 1440ish. I've made some money and I've LOST a bunch of money.

-Bill

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This could also contribute to crude oil volatility during the time period you mention.


Quoting 
Platts requires that companies declare their intention to post bids or offers before a cut-off point in the afternoon, which is 30 to 45 minutes before the close of the market, depending on the commodity. During those final minutes, those buyers and sellers can adjust their prices in line with the Platts’ incrementability and repeatability guidelines, but new participants cannot post bids and offers. Companies that have not submitted bids or offers, however, may choose to accept a bid or an offer posted through the MOC process. This allows the universe of potential buyers and sellers to be far larger than the number of companies that have posted bids and offers.


Quoting 
WHAT IS THE “WINDOW”?
The “window” is the term market participants use to refer to the 30- to 45-minute period before the close of the market when Platts no longer accepts new bids or offers in the price assessment process. The “window” is not to be confused with the MOC process itself. It is just a part of the overall process, which involves surveying the market throughout the day as well as during the “window,” which is typically the time when the market is most active.

http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/aboutplatts/mediacenter/PDF/intromocoil.pdf

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Old March 6th, 2015, 08:03 AM   #627 (permalink)
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Low expectations for the day till $ slows down. I will short the hell out of CL if she spikes 150+ ticks. Never short a dull market. Will load up from the long side if CL flushes down to 50 area.

The position size reflects basically 50-50 set up. CL may move 50 ticks up or 50 ticks down. Either way the move will be immaterial for me and thus 1 car on just to get a feel for order low. I am hoping that we get some set ups after jobs report today at 8.30 am eastern time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 6th, 2015, 09:14 AM   #628 (permalink)
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@mfbreakout

It seems low participation market(s) are easier to melt up than down, do you find this to be true?

Thank you

-Bill

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Old March 6th, 2015, 09:49 AM   #629 (permalink)
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Low expectations for the day till $ slows down. I will short the hell out of CL if she spikes 150+ ticks. Never short a dull market. Will load up from the long side if CL flushes down to 50 area.

The position size reflects basically 50-50 set up. CL may move 50 ticks up or 50 ticks down. Either way the move will be immaterial for me and thus 1 car on just to get a feel for order low. I am hoping that we get some set ups after jobs report today at 8.30 am eastern time.

$ up and up on job report. Short 50.77. I will be very patient and careful to try longs till dust settles down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 6th, 2015, 09:56 AM   #630 (permalink)
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@mfbreakout

It seems low participation market(s) are easier to melt up than down, do you find this to be true?

Thank you

-Bill

I do not have statistical evidence to back it up but my screen time tells me that before prevailing trend is resumed CL gets marked up to facilitate shorts. So answer is Yes. That's why i am always shorting Flush ups in CL.

ES, TF , $ are have been bullish trend. In these instruements, i ONLY have one set up and that is go longs on pullbacks. No shorts except for scalps.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; March 6th, 2015 at 10:05 AM.
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