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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,328 / 1,754
Last Reply:1 Hour Ago (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old March 2nd, 2015, 02:06 PM   #521 (permalink)
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@mfbreakout why limit yourself to 6 trades a day?

ATR for CL is around 150 ticks. When i am taking a trade, i am shooting for 100 ticks. There are no opportunities left after CL has moved 100- 150 ticks in one direction.

There are very few days when i get 100 ticks on a full position. For example, i was up $3900 intra day today. I ended up with $2200 as CL pulled back and i could not take it any more . If i make one more mistake, i may go home Red. Since, i tend to hold my trades for about 2 hours with lot of JOY RIDE in between, my record shows 6 is the number. After that it's mostly down hill.

On another note, while trading CL i am also trading NG, TF, KC, ZS etc. There is not enough time or energy left after that.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 2nd, 2015, 02:09 PM   #522 (permalink)
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Following is a good examle as to what i am trying to trade. A trader has limited opportunities to define upper and lower end of a move. This is especially tricky for CL. Identifying extremes within one risk profile is the HOLY GRAIL.

NOTE: When John made this video he was around 14 years old. Now he is in college and has started some very cool investment initiatives.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old March 2nd, 2015, 03:24 PM   #523 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Following is a good examle as to what i am trying to trade. A trader has limited opportunities to define upper and lower end of a move. This is especially tricky for CL. Identifying extremes within one risk profile is the HOLY GRAIL.

NOTE: When John made this video he was around 14 years old. Now he is in college and has started some very cool investment initiatives.


Pretty damn impressive for a 14 year old. At 14 I was trying to figure out girls and high school calculus. I don't know who I feel worse for, me for having to try and catch up learning some of these concepts...or him for having been so engrossed with trading at such a young age. The self-pity is building....


Last edited by protokletos; March 2nd, 2015 at 03:46 PM. Reason: grammar
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Old March 2nd, 2015, 03:41 PM   #524 (permalink)
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Pretty damn impressive for a 14 year old. At 14 I was trying to figure out girls and and high school calculus. I don't know who I feel worse for, me for having to try and catch up learning some of these concepts...or him for having been so engrossed with trading at such a young age. The self-pity is building....


I felt exactly the same way when i first saw this video 3 years ago. Some traders are just naturally gifted was my consolation to myself and i am not, so i have to learn the hard way and still learning.

How about this one. He has been ruling trading world since very young age. I wonder what would he say about my charts (lol)?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 2nd, 2015, 03:49 PM   #525 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I felt exactly the same way when i first saw this video 3 years ago. Some traders are just naturally gifted was my consolation to myself and i am not, so i have to learn the hard way and still learning.

How about this one. He has been ruling trading world since very young age.

Wow, his credentials are unbelievable! The breadth of knowledge he has across different sectors is what impresses me the most. Moved up quick too. Must have made some killer trades that first year or two.

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Old March 2nd, 2015, 03:54 PM   #526 (permalink)
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Wow, his credentials are unbelievable! The breadth of knowledge he has across different sectors is what impresses me the most. Moved up quick too. Must have made some killer trades that first year or two.

Different strokes for different folks. He would not be able to day trade. Just differnet skill set.

My trading hero Mark Fisher who is a legend in his own right says he never tried to be like Georgr Soros or some body else. He just does what he knows. This is from a guy who trained lot of Paul tudor zJones traders and according to PTJ " Mark is the finest pit trader he has ever seen".



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 2nd, 2015, 04:01 PM   #527 (permalink)
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Different strokes for different folks. He would not be able to day trade. Just differnet skill set.

My trading hero Mark Fisher who is a legend in his own right says he never tried to be like Georgr Soros or some body else. He just does what he knows. This is from a guy who trained lot of Paul tudor zJones traders and according to PTJ " Mark is the finest pit trader he has ever seen".

If there's one thing I've learned over the past few weeks as I've started to immerse myself in studying day trading, it's just that--don't go beyond what you know.

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Old March 2nd, 2015, 04:09 PM   #528 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
@mfbreakout why limit yourself to 6 trades a day?

A different form of risk management.

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Old March 2nd, 2015, 04:09 PM   #529 (permalink)
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If there's one thing I've learned over the past few weeks as I've started to immerse myself in studying day trading, it's just that--don't go beyond what you know.

I am not sure how many have seen movie " Perfect Storm". This is what day trading is. Don't let anyone make you think otherwise. I mean CL moved from 48.70 to 51 , back down to 49.40 and now at 49.74. Wellcome to the jungle.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old March 3rd, 2015, 03:12 AM   #530 (permalink)
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@e4williams

IMO trade what you're comfortable with. I think the natural progression in trading is: Stocks/ ETF's/ all, Options, Futures. Futures are a unique animal all to themselves, esp /CL or /GC.

If you're wanting to get in on the John Wayne, set up a practice account (paper) that mimic's actual fills. Some paper accounts will give you unrealistic fills - for example, Infinity is a tad bit harder to get filled on paper than real dollars, meaning on paper it has to trade through your strike to get filled.

And you absolutely must treat the paper account as real dollars or you will learn absolutely nothing. IIRCC, @FuturesTrader71 said, put a trade on, get in the game - by being in the game you will learn more than watching the game (some paraphrase.) @DionysusToast has some excellent videos here at futures.io (formerly BMT) and at his website for teaching trading futures. One of the interesting things he has put forth (prop shops) is take a portion of your day and take no more than 4 ticks (example) 6 ticks, no less than X ticks, no more than X ticks loss etc. Write everything down and go back through the day.

I'm a huge advocate (as is Mr Dalton) of writing (physical) vs typing to remember things - it just seems to work that way.

@Devil Man "6,8 or even 10 ticks stop loss" I dunno, depends on the means to the end, what you be up to

-Bill_M

Thank you for your excellent response.

And, yes, I have been paper trading, as well. And learned a ton from that, and, yes, I have been treating it exactly as that, as my real money. So far, it ain't looking too pretty

Preferred instruments to trade and why. A question thrown out there.

I am swing trading so I might have a different perspective.

I could have hopped out of oil on Jan 29th and gone right into Gold for a great trade.
I don't much like the charts for the e-mini S & P.

I hear the DAX is making moves but can't figure out how to bring up the damn chart.


In my trading education as I am slowly trying to bring myself out of ignorance and then a quick stumble through stupidity.

Perhaps, a next step in my education is not to be married to the same bride and know when to jump ship and find a better trade-able instrument.

So far, all I like is Gold and Oil. Any other suggestions to look at?


I like moving averages. I have never done this before, I have never gone beyond looking at 200 day MA, try pulling up WTI crude oil with a 1000 day simple moving average on a weekly chart on a twenty year historical chart and look at this resistance shown to present weekly prices. Talk about resistance.


After a lot of study, I think I know the basic fundamentals here. Saudis, frackers, Russia, and Iran.

Nigeria seems to hold great potential, one of the largest untapped oil fields around, why not go out and rape their land?

Oil, to me is quite interesting at this point, oil is almost or is challenging the DOW theory. I think what we are facing now is the beginning of March and when summer hits and driving picks up. That's March, April, May.

There are just so many politics involved. Politics versus the Dow theory, there are an awful lot of traders out there whether they be institutions, hedge funds, or individual investors that are re-lying on technical analysis.

On a daily chart, looking at the 50 MA crude oil seems to be quite the well-behaved boy.

Is oil to buck technical analysis due to the politics involved, to abide by technical analysis which oil is currently doing?

That gives us three months until driving season kicks in. All the top analysts are calling for higher oil prices in the second half of this year.

Quite curious as to how oil is going to play out over the next three months.


However, not curious enough to lose my money on this nonsense.

So, I will pose the question once again, other instruments traders like to trade.

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