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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,184 / 1,753
Last Reply:9 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 20th, 2015, 08:05 AM   #411 (permalink)
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I'm not one for posting charts anymore

However I thought I'd throw this out there to see how this plays out

Which side wins this battle? (I have some ideas,,,,,,,,,)

-Bill

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EDIT

Like taking candy from a baby (sometimes)

Ride safe


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 20th, 2015 at 08:32 AM.
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Old February 20th, 2015, 09:32 AM   #412 (permalink)
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More on the WTI/ Brent discussion

-Bill_M

WTI (USOil) Versus Brent (UKOil)

EDIT

If ToS there's no /BZ so if you want to track(?) it maybe use BNO or? (caution, illiquid)


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 20th, 2015 at 10:12 AM.
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Old February 20th, 2015, 12:35 PM   #413 (permalink)
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WTI was for decades the most (or at least one of the most expensive) crudes in the world. The US imported crude and shipped it up pipelines into the midwest etc. Hence WTI regularly priced at Brent + Frieght +Pipeline costs. Obviously with the change in US production, the addition of new pipelines, and the reversing of others (so crude can now flow from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast) things now look very different.

CME/NYMEX issued a research report back in October Brent-WTI Spread to Tighten Further / The Ghost Barrels actually arguing for it to narrow. (Report has some interesting discussion of fundamentals hence the link) Never sure whether they believed that or whether they are just trying to (re-)inflate the importance of WTI as a world benchmark. Of course back in October Padd II stocks were 35 million barrels lower and prices were $40 higher. Oh to have a Crystal Ball.

Thanks for the history there. Somewhat similar to what I've seen on the gas side with Appalachian production coming on in the last few years. The CME report is a good read.

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Old February 20th, 2015, 12:50 PM   #414 (permalink)
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I'm not one for posting charts anymore

However I thought I'd throw this out there to see how this plays out

Which side wins this battle? (I have some ideas,,,,,,,,,)

-Bill

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EDIT

Like taking candy from a baby (sometimes)

Ride safe

did you enter at 51.60 range?

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Old February 20th, 2015, 02:53 PM   #415 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Question?

How often does the Baker/ Hughes Rig Count come out/ hit the wires?

I went to their website and it says the 2nd Friday of JAN, APR, JUL and OCT.

Yet there's news out today saying rig count hits 2011 lows

Am I missing something?

Thank you

-Bill

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Old February 20th, 2015, 02:56 PM   #416 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Question?

How often does the Baker/ Hughes Rig Count come out/ hit the wires?

I went to their website and it says the 2nd Friday of JAN, APR, JUL and OCT.

Yet there's news out today saying rig count hits 2011 lows

Am I missing something?

Thank you

-Bill

Every Friday, usually between 11am-1pm. If you're subscribed for expensive subscriptions, then you can get it earlier than others

Baker Hughes - Investor Relations - Rig Counts

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Old February 20th, 2015, 03:04 PM   #417 (permalink)
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@Alphachase

Thank you

I just signed up for the rig count alert via email

It will be interesting to see what "it" actually is

I'll report back

-Bill

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Old February 20th, 2015, 04:26 PM   #418 (permalink)
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Crude ended up in a relatively tight range today. I just closed my shorts with relatively small profits (was short at average 52.32 just prior to NY session). Next week might be very rocky for crude. All recent attempts to go higher were completely rejected and US production is on the rise as it was broadly expected. Decline in gas and disty production in PADD3 calls for some concerns though. Regarding rig counts, the count itself doesn't make any sense, what's more important is the "quality" of those idled rigs and efficiency of those that have not been idled so far. In other words, those idled rigs are usually way less productive than majority of horizontal ones (where percentage decline in numbers was smaller). These highly productive wells can withstand even bigger declines in prices. That paves the way for further increase in crude production. Patience, precaution and precision are key words now. Wish ya all a great WE!

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Old February 23rd, 2015, 08:17 AM   #419 (permalink)
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specs are long crude and max pain would definitely be to the downside

i don't believe it would be unimaginable for the crude market to see a major puke

many want to believe that the first serious bounce after a long downtrend is a sign of a bottom,

but, it may a bear market correction, which in the big picture, is simply a fairly limited bounce off the lows

the weak shorts have been summarily squeezed and dispatched to the sidelines;

and, now the market may be ready, willing, and able to take a crap

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Old February 23rd, 2015, 09:38 AM   #420 (permalink)
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Slightly oversold now, she may want to go back to 50
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