The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started: by tturner86 Views / Replies:135,876 / 1,830
Last Reply: Attachments:465

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 465  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #411 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 677 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 300 given, 595 received

I'm not one for posting charts anymore

However I thought I'd throw this out there to see how this plays out

Which side wins this battle? (I have some ideas,,,,,,,,,)

-Bill

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


EDIT

Like taking candy from a baby (sometimes)

Ride safe


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 20th, 2015 at 08:32 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #412 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 677 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 300 given, 595 received

More on the WTI/ Brent discussion

-Bill_M

WTI (USOil) Versus Brent (UKOil)

EDIT

If ToS there's no /BZ so if you want to track(?) it maybe use BNO or? (caution, illiquid)


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 20th, 2015 at 10:12 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #413 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Oil, gas
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 7 given, 3 received



SMCJB View Post
WTI was for decades the most (or at least one of the most expensive) crudes in the world. The US imported crude and shipped it up pipelines into the midwest etc. Hence WTI regularly priced at Brent + Frieght +Pipeline costs. Obviously with the change in US production, the addition of new pipelines, and the reversing of others (so crude can now flow from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast) things now look very different.

CME/NYMEX issued a research report back in October Brent-WTI Spread to Tighten Further / The Ghost Barrels actually arguing for it to narrow. (Report has some interesting discussion of fundamentals hence the link) Never sure whether they believed that or whether they are just trying to (re-)inflate the importance of WTI as a world benchmark. Of course back in October Padd II stocks were 35 million barrels lower and prices were $40 higher. Oh to have a Crystal Ball.

Thanks for the history there. Somewhat similar to what I've seen on the gas side with Appalachian production coming on in the last few years. The CME report is a good read.

Reply With Quote
 
  #414 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Oil, gas
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 7 given, 3 received


WilleeMac View Post
I'm not one for posting charts anymore

However I thought I'd throw this out there to see how this plays out

Which side wins this battle? (I have some ideas,,,,,,,,,)

-Bill

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


EDIT

Like taking candy from a baby (sometimes)

Ride safe

did you enter at 51.60 range?

Reply With Quote
 
  #415 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 677 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 300 given, 595 received

Futures Edge on FIO
Question?

How often does the Baker/ Hughes Rig Count come out/ hit the wires?

I went to their website and it says the 2nd Friday of JAN, APR, JUL and OCT.

Yet there's news out today saying rig count hits 2011 lows

Am I missing something?

Thank you

-Bill

Reply With Quote
 
  #416 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received


WilleeMac View Post
Question?

How often does the Baker/ Hughes Rig Count come out/ hit the wires?

I went to their website and it says the 2nd Friday of JAN, APR, JUL and OCT.

Yet there's news out today saying rig count hits 2011 lows

Am I missing something?

Thank you

-Bill

Every Friday, usually between 11am-1pm. If you're subscribed for expensive subscriptions, then you can get it earlier than others

Baker Hughes - Investor Relations - Rig Counts

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Alphachase for this post:
 
  #417 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 677 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 300 given, 595 received

@Alphachase

Thank you

I just signed up for the rig count alert via email

It will be interesting to see what "it" actually is

I'll report back

-Bill

Reply With Quote
 
  #418 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received

Crude ended up in a relatively tight range today. I just closed my shorts with relatively small profits (was short at average 52.32 just prior to NY session). Next week might be very rocky for crude. All recent attempts to go higher were completely rejected and US production is on the rise as it was broadly expected. Decline in gas and disty production in PADD3 calls for some concerns though. Regarding rig counts, the count itself doesn't make any sense, what's more important is the "quality" of those idled rigs and efficiency of those that have not been idled so far. In other words, those idled rigs are usually way less productive than majority of horizontal ones (where percentage decline in numbers was smaller). These highly productive wells can withstand even bigger declines in prices. That paves the way for further increase in crude production. Patience, precaution and precision are key words now. Wish ya all a great WE!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Alphachase for this post:
 
  #419 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,870 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,243 given, 31,030 received

specs are long crude and max pain would definitely be to the downside

i don't believe it would be unimaginable for the crude market to see a major puke

many want to believe that the first serious bounce after a long downtrend is a sign of a bottom,

but, it may a bear market correction, which in the big picture, is simply a fairly limited bounce off the lows

the weak shorts have been summarily squeezed and dispatched to the sidelines;

and, now the market may be ready, willing, and able to take a crap

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #420 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received


Slightly oversold now, she may want to go back to 50
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Alphachase for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Al Brooks: When A Good Trade Goes Bad (Risk and Probabilities)

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: Quant Trading with Python

Elite only

NinjaTrader 8: Tips and Tricks (part 2)

Mar 2

An Afternoon With FIO member @michaelemoore

Elite only

Jigsaw Trading: Keys to successfully trading the open

Mar 9

Macro view: Trump Market Risk w/Piers Curran @ Amplify Trading

Elite only

Reading the Psychology of the Market w/Brett Steenbarger & Trading Technologies

Elite only

Hybrid Machine Learning (R and TradeStation) w/Murray Ruggiero

Elite only

Spring Grains Outlook w/Sean Lusk @ Walsh Trading

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:43 PM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-02-21 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.161.164.139