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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,089 / 1,755
Last Reply:17 Hours Ago (02:44 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 19th, 2015, 03:08 PM   #391 (permalink)
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Something i do not bet against with DOE A up unless a nice FLUSH UP shows up. One time is OK for a natural pullback after 240 ticks move and thats why i shorted 52.18. I am trading CLJ5 contract.

Bottom line i am not going long at highs ( anything above 52.30 is high for me to try new long) even if she is going to 53. I will get my ticks if there are left any per my RULES.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 19th, 2015, 03:12 PM   #392 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Something i do not bet against with DOE A up. One time is OK for a natural pullback after 240 ticks move and thats why i shorted 52.18.

I bought 51.68, closed 52.70. It was so tempting. LOL

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Old February 19th, 2015, 04:04 PM   #393 (permalink)
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Something i do not bet against with DOE A up unless a nice FLUSH UP shows up. One time is OK for a natural pullback after 240 ticks move and thats why i shorted 52.18. I am trading CLJ5 contract.

Bottom line i am not going long at highs ( anything above 52.30 is high for me to try new long) even if she is going to 53. I will get my ticks if there are left any per my RULES.

Certain trades one has to trade along with algos.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 19th, 2015, 04:11 PM   #394 (permalink)
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Today's data/news

Relative newbie to Oil, experience with NG, but I'm sitting on the sidelines trying to gain some experience/knowledge on days like today. With EIA inventories rising to high levels to echo API reports yesterday, I was expecting a bit of a bear market today. Any insight as to what I'm seeing happen today? Tons of volume over the last few hours as well. I apologize in advance for the naivete, but I'm beginning to get wrapped up in this! Thanks...

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Old February 19th, 2015, 04:14 PM   #395 (permalink)
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Relative newbie to Oil, experience with NG, but I'm sitting on the sidelines trying to gain some experience/knowledge on days like today. With EIA inventories rising to high levels to echo API reports yesterday, I was expecting a bit of a bear market today. Any insight as to what I'm seeing happen today? Tons of volume over the last few hours as well. I apologize in advance for the naivete, but I'm beginning to get wrapped up in this! Thanks...


This is known as BAD NEWS but GOOD PRICE ACTION. In this scenario trading opportunities are more vs if price action was as expected. Price action to the down side most probably would have been muted as CL already had moster sell off during prior day and subsequent Globex session.

Always keep daily, weekly and monthly true range in mind. Some traders look at 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation moves in mind to put on trades. It's very hard to inititate a new short after price already has moved 3 standard deviation etc. Which one is easier to short? 50.20 or 52.70? Sell GREEN BARS and BUY RED BARS.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old February 19th, 2015, 04:20 PM   #396 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
This is known as BAD NEWS but GOOD PRICE ACTION. In this scenario trading opportunities are more vs if price action was as expected. Price action to the down side most probably would have been muted as CL already had moster sell off during prior day and subsequent Globex session.

Thanks, I follow. Loving these dynamics.

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Old February 19th, 2015, 04:26 PM   #397 (permalink)
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Its not that simple but as a general Rule. Buy Red - Sell Green. Sell Green ONLY in macro bearish trend.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 19th, 2015, 04:38 PM   #398 (permalink)
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Its not that simple but as a general Rule. Buy Red - Sell Green. Sell Green ONLY in macro bearish trend.

Nice rule of thumb there.

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Old February 19th, 2015, 06:38 PM   #399 (permalink)
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On balance

Looking at current price action in this ascending triangle it is interesting to see that most of the momentum has been to the down side...and that the areas of congestion have been near the highs...

Congestion or consolidation below the high may be building a case for a break up...certainly the higher lows support this...

Yet on each of the falls the momentum has been to the downside...makes me think price patterns can fail...

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Old February 19th, 2015, 08:57 PM   #400 (permalink)
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CME has some great education material and I would suggest you start there.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/getting-started.html

I highly recommend you go through all of those. If you are lazy and don't intend to go through all of them then at least go through all of the Jeff Quinto "Fundamentals" section.

Moving averages are awesome at showing you the past trend. Worthless at telling you anything that is going to happen next, including trend.

You admit that you are still in the "learning curve", whatever that is, then you shouldn't so quickly reject what others are telling you.

I have been trading a really long time and still learn something new every single day, actually every single trade.

Well, so far nobody has told me anything except for you. Thank you for the advice and I will thoroughly check out the CME site. I am only on this site to gain an education on trading and I have already picked up some good pointers.

I don't know how people are trading on this board, are they trading just to grab a few ticks intraday are they going out one, two, or three weeks out?

I, personally, think that Gold is in a much better trading range that oil, which along with the dollar are both currently moving sideways. and I think will continue to do so for some time.

And no, I don't buy your argument that moving averages aren't valid for the future.
It seems to be quite easy to talk very flippant on this board.

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