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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,162 / 1,753
Last Reply:5 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 18th, 2015, 06:01 PM   #361 (permalink)
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I can look at the same chart, for example crude for weeks and weeks and still gain new insights into the chart.
And I think your are dead wrong about moving averages. Trading from a technical analysis standpoint is understanding the trend.

I am still low on the learning curve, I'll admit that right off. However, I do find that people on this board can get too over-sophisticated quickly.

If you think you can correct me on this one, give it a try. I would value any input.

CME has some great education material and I would suggest you start there.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/getting-started.html

I highly recommend you go through all of those. If you are lazy and don't intend to go through all of them then at least go through all of the Jeff Quinto "Fundamentals" section.

Moving averages are awesome at showing you the past trend. Worthless at telling you anything that is going to happen next, including trend.

You admit that you are still in the "learning curve", whatever that is, then you shouldn't so quickly reject what others are telling you.

I have been trading a really long time and still learn something new every single day, actually every single trade.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:14 PM   #362 (permalink)
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Anyone who wants to learn to trade need to put on a trade. It does not matter if it's a paper trade. I paper traded for 2 years.
I was bullish all day due to following reasons;

1) 54 area got tested 4 times over last 2 weeks. In my mind CL was ready to test high and higher.

2) Value areas keep getting build higher ( i do not find these to be useful but use it since everyone seems to like it).

3) Yesterday PRICE ACTION and a strong close at highs.

In the back of my mind i had one -ve question mark about 54 being taken out. The doubt was due to the fact that damn CL pulled backall the way to 52. This is not a sign of a BULLISH trend. When result of all 3 above mentioned points turned out to be -ve, i turned bearish.

Finally, i started building shorts around 52.10 area and was fully loaded with 30 cars. Due to some starnge reason i was totally unaware of FOMC rate decision. I got SURPRISED.

Cover some 50.44.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:19 PM   #363 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Due to some starnge reason i was totally unaware of FOMC rate decision. I got SURPRISED.

FOMC Minutes were released today. Usually come out on Wednesdays 3 weeks after meetings.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:22 PM   #364 (permalink)
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FOMC Minutes were released today.

Yep and my subsequent shorts were also due to FOMC minutes. If i was aware of it before hand, i would had a monster day, instead my surprise forced me to play defense.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:22 PM   #365 (permalink)
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14.3 Million Barrel Inventory Build is a really big number...

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:24 PM   #366 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Yep and my subsequent shorts were also due to FOMC minutes. If i was aware of it before hand, i would had a monster day, instead my surprise forced me to play defense.

You can set reminders in your calendar to avoid such a surprise. See FOMC link in my previous post.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:28 PM   #367 (permalink)
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If 48 breaks on this down move this week or next week- we will get to see who has been swimming naked from the BULL side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:33 PM   #368 (permalink)
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After loading up on shorts before FOMC minutes, what was I doing? Listening to some music. I prefer it vs looking at DOM etc trying to see what SMART MONEY is doining. Once a decision has been made , it pays to stay put.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 18th, 2015 at 06:47 PM.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:35 PM   #369 (permalink)
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API gestimated 3.60 Cush build today. This is very large build. Over last 1-1.5 years API has been very close in their Cush # comparing to EIA. If confirmed tomorrow by EIA, would be the one of the largest builds since 2008.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:36 PM   #370 (permalink)
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API gestimated 3.60 Cush build today. This is very large build. Over last 1-1.5 years API has been very close in their Cush # comparing to EIA. If confirmed tomorrow by EIA, would be the one of the largest builds since 2008.

That's why I will be praying tonight that CL bounces some so that i can add to shorts.



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