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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,726 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 18th, 2015, 10:31 AM   #351 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post

Options expiry keeps volume in prompt month high as people manage their last delta's.

Can you explain what you mean by this in a little more detail? I understand how options work in a basic way but I have never traded them.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 10:46 AM   #352 (permalink)
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@kurlare

Most platforms will have some form of "Show Contract Change Events"

However what @SMCJB has posted

Also you can go here http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_settlements_futures.html and keep an eye on the OI and the back month growing faster(?) than the front month

And yes, like yesterday it occasionally catches me off guard (damn sure never again.)

Also promulgating the moonshot yesterday (other than closing out the current contract) was folks jumping on the band wagon, shorts getting hammered etc

-Bill

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Old February 18th, 2015, 11:01 AM   #353 (permalink)
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kurlare View Post
Can you explain what you mean by this in a little more detail? I understand how options work in a basic way but I have never traded them.

I'm just saying that March options expired yesterday, so yesterday there were a lot of people still trading march futures against their options positions. Since those options have now expired though, nobody is trading march futures vs their options position today. Hence the transition from March to April being the dominant contract begins.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 11:02 AM   #354 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I'm just saying that March options expired yesterday, so yesterday there were a lot of people still trading march futures against their options positions. Since those options have now expired though, nobody is trading march futures vs their options position today. Hence the transition from March to April being the dominant contract begins.

Got it, very clear. Thanks.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 11:26 AM   #355 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Also roll is 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th of the month, also options expiration is always the third Friday of each month (holiday?)

I've no excuse for screwing yesterday up, good hard lesson learned - I should know better

-Bill

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Old February 18th, 2015, 12:56 PM   #356 (permalink)
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kurlare View Post
How do you know today is rollover day for CL? How would this action manifest itself in the market, in your experience?

Futures expiry is on 20th. TOS platform start giving heads up 3 days before expiration. I will switch to CLJ5 on Friday - the day TOS will not allow traders to trade CLH5 contract.

Price action close to expiration gets jerky and requires long hold time. When it looks like CL is ready to go the moon it will pullback after hours of SONG and DANCE like this morning around 53 area. Price was stuck between 52.70 to 53.10 area for hours.

Some traders look at difference between CLJ5, CLH5 but more importantly USO rollover cost. USO incurs huge rollover cost. I do not watch it as that is beyond my skill set. I tried but it was not worth it. My solution- trade small and trade per usual plan with reduced targets.

Short 52.77 added to short 52.56 . Out flat 52.20. 2 hours of back and forth with 30 ticks bounces in between to make 50 ticks. Over last 5 years when i look at my records - always the same story during expiration week. No need to rush to take a position. One gets plenty of time to get into a position. If one thinks 52 area is long now, one will get plenty of time to go long and then get ready to enjoy JOY RIDE of back and forth.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 01:44 PM   #357 (permalink)
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A trader tools which work like a charm on most days and while a trader read on price action and his/her analysis has reasonable degree of sucess during normal trading days- during expiration week KISS them GOOD BYE.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 01:44 PM   #358 (permalink)
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Regarding moving averages


zander931 View Post
I'm not sure I agree/understand with much of what you wrote, but I'll let @tigertrader address your view on market sentiment, the news and fundamentals, if he is so inclined.

The only thing I'll address is your comment about moving averages, and lead/lag inter-market relationships.

Frankly, your comment about moving averages almost sounded satirical, from my point of view. If you're being serious, though, I implore you to stop wasting your valuable time. There is absolutely no edge to be found in moving averages alone. A moving average crossover is, likely, one of the most simplistic, overused and ineffective "trading setups" in existence. If you choose to trade this way, you'll be trading in a complete vacuum. You'll be gambling, not trading (knowingly initiating trades that have no identifiable edge). I challenge you to provide a single (valid) reason why a MA crossover has any structural or behavioral edge.


In regard to inter-market relationships...

You'll find plenty of markets that exhibit a lead/lag relationship with oil (RB, CAD, USD, bonds, etc...). These relationships can provide a trader with an incredible informational edge, imo. Your time would be much better spent studying the dynamics of these relationships. Try to look for what's currently driving price, and develop an understanding as to why this is the case (these are both relatively difficult to accomplish, at least for me, but trading isn't as simple as many purport it to be).


Rereading my comments, they appear to be much more blunt/harsh than I intended them to be. Please understand I'm honestly only trying to save you some time/money/frustration. Also, bear in mind, I'm certainly not a trading veteran, yet, so take my advice fwiw.


I am not looking at moving averages alone. I am just digging into these. First, is the trend-line (I like to keep things simple, for example knowing how to draw a trend-line) Is there a trend or is the stock or commodity in a sideways trend. Knowing how to draw a good trend line. That's number one for me.

You are discounting the value of technical analysis, even a look at the 10 SMA is of great value.

I can look at the same chart, for example crude for weeks and weeks and still gain new insights into the chart.
And I think your are dead wrong about moving averages. Trading from a technical analysis standpoint is understanding the trend.

I am still low on the learning curve, I'll admit that right off. However, I do find that people on this board can get too over-sophisticated quickly.

As I said I am still low on the learning curve here, I thought and think that the 10SMA and 4EMA crossover would be good buy sell entry points. I am doing more of a short term trade strategy looking at daily charts. Not day-trading.

If you think you can correct me on this one, give it a try. I would value any input.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 05:37 PM   #359 (permalink)
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EIA ANNOUNCEMENT/API #

DOES ANYONE KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET THESE NUMBERS?

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Old February 18th, 2015, 05:41 PM   #360 (permalink)
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northend View Post
DOES ANYONE KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET THESE NUMBERS?

It depends on. Massive builds in Cush and crude inventories are very bearish. Like now. More than $1 plunge in mere 15 min on big volumes outside RTH.


Last edited by Alphachase; February 18th, 2015 at 05:47 PM.
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