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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,216 / 1,757
Last Reply:2 Hours Ago (06:13 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 18th, 2015, 12:42 AM   #341 (permalink)
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From my ongoing education on Technical Analysis

Sentiment and Momentum, should only be used as secondary indicators.

First of all, would come the trend and analysis of the trend.
Secondarily, would come indicators such as sentiment or momentum.
Not something to trade on alone.

From my understanding of news with regards to technical analysis is that news has already been priced in. For me, once I have gotten a good handle on the major fundamentals operating here, such as the Saudis declaring they are not to lower production and the relationship to the American Shale Frackers. Any news for me, is simply turning away your ear from and not worth paying attention to.

On my learning curve, and to be honest is very much on the low end of the curve now, what my curiosity and study has brought me to recently is the crossover between the 10 SMA and the 4 day EMA. And then on to how to use a single moving average as a trend line.

Also, curious about the relationship to the dollar and oil, who or what is leading the way on that one. Just running in tandem or does one take the lead? I am not convinced that they are not just running in tandem.

I'm not sure I agree/understand with much of what you wrote, but I'll let @tigertrader address your view on market sentiment, the news and fundamentals, if he is so inclined.

The only thing I'll address is your comment about moving averages, and lead/lag inter-market relationships.

Frankly, your comment about moving averages almost sounded satirical, from my point of view. If you're being serious, though, I implore you to stop wasting your valuable time. There is absolutely no edge to be found in moving averages alone. A moving average crossover is, likely, one of the most simplistic, overused and ineffective "trading setups" in existence. If you choose to trade this way, you'll be trading in a complete vacuum. You'll be gambling, not trading (knowingly initiating trades that have no identifiable edge). I challenge you to provide a single (valid) reason why a MA crossover has any structural or behavioral edge.


In regard to inter-market relationships...

You'll find plenty of markets that exhibit a lead/lag relationship with oil (RB, CAD, USD, bonds, etc...). These relationships can provide a trader with an incredible informational edge, imo. Your time would be much better spent studying the dynamics of these relationships. Try to look for what's currently driving price, and develop an understanding as to why this is the case (these are both relatively difficult to accomplish, at least for me, but trading isn't as simple as many purport it to be).


Rereading my comments, they appear to be much more blunt/harsh than I intended them to be. Please understand I'm honestly only trying to save you some time/money/frustration. Also, bear in mind, I'm certainly not a trading veteran, yet, so take my advice fwiw.


Last edited by zander931; February 18th, 2015 at 01:36 AM.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 03:32 AM   #342 (permalink)
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@tigertrader

I am intrigued as to the hypothetical assumption (since its hard to quantify) on statistically how much do you believe fundementals add an edge in your trading probability wise.

Let me make it interesting (or more complicated - haha) by asking, if you were to drop your fundemental analysis - do you believe you could still be trading succesfully on Technical Analysis alone?

I'll throw in my personal experience (not in fundementals though) - I was involved in a long research in which we took 13 years of 1 min data studying the "GAP" phenomena - we used various algorithms, machine learning and statistical software from "R" to Matlab etc to create a "Decision Support Tool" in our trading - we were able to increase the probability of the raw natural setup from 65% to 75% - was it worth it? Mmm...how did someone once say - give a man a 90% probability setup and they can still lose money due to fear/greed / bad money management etc.

So as an analogy - Im wondering if your Fundementals increased your probability by say 10%? and if so - was it worth the investment ? Personally I like to keep it simple and do not enjoy reading /assesing fundementals.

When I was 21 - I was reading Stephen Hawkings book (I'm doing a free translation from a foreign language so Im not sure it was called the same way in English) - "Black Holes and Universes"' where he spoke about being able to find the ultimate mathematical formula of life/the universe as everything is interaction of particles/atoms - which meant that everything is deterministic and suggested we humans have no free thought - needless to say I was very disapointed considering this genious suggests we are Robots - but at the end of the book he said something that chnaged everything ..somehting along these lines " Yes- we will know how the universe started - but not WHY IS IT HERE" - I think of the markets in the same way ...

Steve


Last edited by ziggy123; February 18th, 2015 at 03:37 AM.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 03:55 AM   #343 (permalink)
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I had some time to look at this pretty picture its clear the big picture is what one should be looking at and thats what gives the big profit (when the big funds move in as they are not entering to scalp). Context is so important.

Nice trade @tigertrader.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:05 AM   #344 (permalink)
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Longs and longs. A down and then C up. Per mark Fisher C up is a set up when traders get caught with their pants down and that was the reason to go long again above 53. The way 54 area got rejected i am hesitant to go long on pullbacks, i was planning to go long around 53.50 area but too much of a pullback. She either takes out 54 or back to 52.50 area. When and how? One just had to dream little bit.

NOTE: Above 54 short squeeze which everyone has been waiting for may come true. It will be easier to trade if it somes before inventory day on Thursday.


Thought about taking a short during Asain session but passed. Small test long 52.71 during Euro session. Since yesterday Euro session and start of euro session today CL has moved around 800 ticks but traders can't help themselves but to wonder what so called BIG money is doing. All one has to do is to look at perforance of CTA's over any time period and this fantasy of following as to what BIG money is doing will get put in perspective.

Analysis ( fundamental and technical) has some value if a trader has a trade on otherwise TV is a better choice for watchig a movie. That's the reason i read Tiger posts or any other trader who has a trade on.

NOTE: Contract rollover day. Typically a day full of jerky moves all day.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old February 18th, 2015, 06:51 AM   #345 (permalink)
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@tigertrader

I am intrigued as to the hypothetical assumption (since its hard to quantify) on statistically how much do you believe fundementals add an edge in your trading probability wise.

Let me make it interesting (or more complicated - haha) by asking, if you were to drop your fundemental analysis - do you believe you could still be trading succesfully on Technical Analysis alone?

I'll throw in my personal experience (not in fundementals though) - I was involved in a long research in which we took 13 years of 1 min data studying the "GAP" phenomena - we used various algorithms, machine learning and statistical software from "R" to Matlab etc to create a "Decision Support Tool" in our trading - we were able to increase the probability of the raw natural setup from 65% to 75% - was it worth it? Mmm...how did someone once say - give a man a 90% probability setup and they can still lose money due to fear/greed / bad money management etc.

So as an analogy - Im wondering if your Fundementals increased your probability by say 10%? and if so - was it worth the investment ? Personally I like to keep it simple and do not enjoy reading /assesing fundementals.

When I was 21 - I was reading Stephen Hawkings book (I'm doing a free translation from a foreign language so Im not sure it was called the same way in English) - "Black Holes and Universes"' where he spoke about being able to find the ultimate mathematical formula of life/the universe as everything is interaction of particles/atoms - which meant that everything is deterministic and suggested we humans have no free thought - needless to say I was very disapointed considering this genious suggests we are Robots - but at the end of the book he said something that chnaged everything ..somehting along these lines " Yes- we will know how the universe started - but not WHY IS IT HERE" - I think of the markets in the same way ...

Steve

Just because Boston has Harvard, MIT and 100 other excellent institutions at every level does not mean we Bostonians have to make day trading more difficult than it is. Jsut kidding.

Hope you are doing well.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 07:36 AM   #346 (permalink)
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I had some time to look at this pretty picture


Not to be a dick, but to be a prick - what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

-Bill


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 18th, 2015 at 07:36 AM. Reason: sp, clarify
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Old February 18th, 2015, 07:43 AM   #347 (permalink)
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i know i don't like when someone hijacks my thread, so i don't want to overstay my welcome, and impose my will on the "other tt's" thread. all of the above questions have been addressed to the nth degree on my spoo-nalysis thread. just a quick caveat however. if you read the same books as everyone else, you are going to think like everyone else; and, if you think like everyone else, then you are going to trade like everyone else. if you trade like everyone else, you are going to have same results as everyone else. this is EXACTLY the reason why 95-99% of retail traders fail. it's the "socialism" of trading. it's the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, and it's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. winston chuchill

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Old February 18th, 2015, 08:47 AM   #348 (permalink)
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Thought about taking a short during Asain session but passed. Small test long 52.71 during Euro session. Since yesterday Euro session and start of euro session today CL has moved around 800 ticks but traders can't help themselves but to wonder what so called BIG money is doing. All one has to do is to look at perforance of CTA's over any time period and this fantasy of following as to what BIG money is doing will get put in perspective.

Analysis ( fundamental and technical) has some value if a trader has a trade on otherwise TV is a better choice for watchig a movie. That's the reason i read Tiger posts or any other trader who has a trade on.

NOTE: Contract rollover day. Typically a day full of jerky moves all day.


Sitting on hands and trying to decide whether to short into bounces or wait for longs on pullbacks.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; February 18th, 2015 at 08:52 AM.
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Old February 18th, 2015, 10:05 AM   #349 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post

NOTE: Contract rollover day. Typically a day full of jerky moves all day.

How do you know today is rollover day for CL? How would this action manifest itself in the market, in your experience?

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Old February 18th, 2015, 10:12 AM   #350 (permalink)
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kurlare View Post
How do you know today is rollover day for CL? How would this action manifest itself in the market, in your experience?

Options expiration was yesterday 17th
Penultimate is tomorrow 19th
Futures Expiry is 20th.

Options expiry keeps volume in prompt month high as people manage their last delta's. Today and tomorrow 2nd month volume will be close to equal or even exceed prompt. Friday is expiry and probably only for those who really have some interest in the underlying physical, so volume in prompt will drop precariously.

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