The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 34) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,174 / 1,753
Last Reply:7 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 17th, 2015, 05:35 PM   #331 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Dallas, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: OptionsXpress
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 2 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 2 given, 2 received

Inventories come out in the AM. Market seems to be very news driven right now, inventories should be very bearish. I'm going short into the night

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to TexAg for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 05:42 PM   #332 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,870 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,243 given, 31,000 received


TexAg View Post
Inventories come out in the AM. Market seems to be very news driven right now, inventories should be very bearish. I'm going short into the night

inventories don't have to be anything

you're just guessing; or, rather hoping they are bearish

that's called gambling, not trading

in any event, it's not a question of, if inventories are going to be higher than expected,

rather than, has that news been priced into the market or not

Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 05:46 PM   #333 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Dallas, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: OptionsXpress
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 2 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 2 given, 2 received



tigertrader View Post
inventories don't have to be anything

you're just guessing; or, rather hoping they are bearish

that's called gambling, not trading

in any event, it's not a question of, if inventories are going to be higher than expected,

rather than, has that news been priced into the market or not

I agree. I have to admit I'm more fundamentally driven than technical. I believe that the news was priced into the market today, but was overcome by news of supply disruptions in Libya. tomorrow, I expect the market will come back to the fundamental reality.

I like how you guys seem to be more technical and am looking forward to learning from you.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to TexAg for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 05:50 PM   #334 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received


TexAg View Post
Inventories come out in the AM. Market seems to be very news driven right now, inventories should be very bearish. I'm going short into the night

Inventories will come out on Thursday this week, APIs gestimates are coming out tomorrow 4:30pm.


Last edited by Alphachase; February 17th, 2015 at 05:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to Alphachase for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 05:56 PM   #335 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,870 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,243 given, 31,000 received

Futures Edge on FIO

TexAg View Post
I agree. I have to admit I'm more fundamentally driven than technical. I believe that the news was priced into the market today, but was overcome by news of supply disruptions in Libya. tomorrow, I expect the market will come back to the fundamental reality.

I like how you guys seem to be more technical and am looking forward to learning from you.


charts provide me with landmarks and a visual representation of price action. fundamentals, sentiment, and price action are what drives my decisions.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 06:02 PM   #336 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,220 received

trading


tigertrader View Post
inventories don't have to be anything

you're just guessing; or, rather hoping they are bearish

that's called gambling, not trading

in any event, it's not a question of, if inventories are going to be higher than expected,

rather than, has that news been priced into the market or not


makes sense and i hope to cross that bridge one day.

Thanks



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 07:46 PM   #337 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OX, Z360, Excel
Broker/Data: DeCarley
Favorite Futures: Futures and Future Options
 
Posts: 121 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 75 given, 96 received

Sentiment


tigertrader View Post
charts provide me with landmarks and a visual representation of price action. fundamentals, sentiment, and price action are what drives my decisions.

tigertrader,

I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...

...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...

...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...

...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...

I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?

One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...

Appreciate your clarification in advance. BlueRoo

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to BlueRoo for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 08:16 PM   #338 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 616 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 288 given, 463 received

Fu** Me Freddy

That was nothing more than closing out the current (/CLH5) contract at high/ open +/-

That will not happen to me again

(Or low/ open)

-Bill_M


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 18th, 2015 at 06:59 AM. Reason: sp, clarify
Reply With Quote
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 08:40 PM   #339 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,870 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,243 given, 31,000 received


mfbreakout View Post
makes sense and i hope to cross that bridge one day.

Thanks


BlueRoo View Post
tigertrader,

I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...

...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...

...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...

...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...

I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?

One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...

Appreciate your clarification in advance. BlueRoo

you need to read the spoo-nalysis thread...

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
     

Old February 17th, 2015, 10:57 PM   #340 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Amarillo Texas/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: none
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 61 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 30 given, 11 received

Sentiment and Momentum



BlueRoo View Post
tigertrader,

I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...

...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...

...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...

...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...

I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?

One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...

Appreciate your clarification in advance. BlueRoo

From my ongoing education on Technical Analysis

Sentiment and Momentum, should only be used as secondary indicators.

First of all, would come the trend and analysis of the trend.
Secondarily, would come indicators such as sentiment or momentum.
Not something to trade on alone.

From my understanding of news with regards to technical analysis is that news has already been priced in. For me, once I have gotten a good handle on the major fundamentals operating here, such as the Saudis declaring they are not to lower production and the relationship to the American Shale Frackers. Any news for me, is simply turning away your ear from and not worth paying attention to.

On my learning curve, and to be honest is very much on the low end of the curve now, what my curiosity and study has brought me to recently is the crossover between the 10 SMA and the 4 day EMA. And then on to how to use a single moving average as a trend line.

Also, curious about the relationship to the dollar and oil, who or what is leading the way on that one. Just running in tandem or does one take the lead? I am not convinced that they are not just running in tandem.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to e4williams for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:25 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-02 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.197.75.176