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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #331 (permalink)
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Inventories come out in the AM. Market seems to be very news driven right now, inventories should be very bearish. I'm going short into the night

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  #332 (permalink)
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TexAg View Post
Inventories come out in the AM. Market seems to be very news driven right now, inventories should be very bearish. I'm going short into the night

inventories don't have to be anything

you're just guessing; or, rather hoping they are bearish

that's called gambling, not trading

in any event, it's not a question of, if inventories are going to be higher than expected,

rather than, has that news been priced into the market or not

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  #333 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
inventories don't have to be anything

you're just guessing; or, rather hoping they are bearish

that's called gambling, not trading

in any event, it's not a question of, if inventories are going to be higher than expected,

rather than, has that news been priced into the market or not

I agree. I have to admit I'm more fundamentally driven than technical. I believe that the news was priced into the market today, but was overcome by news of supply disruptions in Libya. tomorrow, I expect the market will come back to the fundamental reality.

I like how you guys seem to be more technical and am looking forward to learning from you.

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  #334 (permalink)
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TexAg View Post
Inventories come out in the AM. Market seems to be very news driven right now, inventories should be very bearish. I'm going short into the night

Inventories will come out on Thursday this week, APIs gestimates are coming out tomorrow 4:30pm.


Last edited by Alphachase; February 17th, 2015 at 05:57 PM.
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  #335 (permalink)
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TexAg View Post
I agree. I have to admit I'm more fundamentally driven than technical. I believe that the news was priced into the market today, but was overcome by news of supply disruptions in Libya. tomorrow, I expect the market will come back to the fundamental reality.

I like how you guys seem to be more technical and am looking forward to learning from you.


charts provide me with landmarks and a visual representation of price action. fundamentals, sentiment, and price action are what drives my decisions.

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  #336 (permalink)
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trading


tigertrader View Post
inventories don't have to be anything

you're just guessing; or, rather hoping they are bearish

that's called gambling, not trading

in any event, it's not a question of, if inventories are going to be higher than expected,

rather than, has that news been priced into the market or not


makes sense and i hope to cross that bridge one day.

Thanks



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  #337 (permalink)
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Sentiment


tigertrader View Post
charts provide me with landmarks and a visual representation of price action. fundamentals, sentiment, and price action are what drives my decisions.

tigertrader,

I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...

...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...

...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...

...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...

I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?

One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...

Appreciate your clarification in advance. BlueRoo

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  #338 (permalink)
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Fu** Me Freddy

That was nothing more than closing out the current (/CLH5) contract at high/ open +/-

That will not happen to me again

(Or low/ open)

-Bill_M


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 18th, 2015 at 06:59 AM. Reason: sp, clarify
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  #339 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
makes sense and i hope to cross that bridge one day.

Thanks


BlueRoo View Post
tigertrader,

I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...

...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...

...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...

...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...

I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?

One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...

Appreciate your clarification in advance. BlueRoo

you need to read the spoo-nalysis thread...

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  #340 (permalink)
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Sentiment and Momentum



BlueRoo View Post
tigertrader,

I am interested in understanding how you read/assess sentiment...

...fundamentals, to me, are essentially the supply and demand relationship peppered with news about how each of these might be affected...

...price action shows two essential things for me that is areas of congestion and momentum...

...if sentiment is bullish then I would expect to see momentum on up moves...to clarify I read bullish momentum as price action where higher lows do not penetrate the previous high...you could see this on a range chart during the fall and rally in CL last night...

I do not use an order flow tool, so I am wondering if this is how you assess sentiment...?

One other question is how do you know if news has been priced into the market or not?...maybe it is my inexperience but I would have no idea how to make this assessment...

Appreciate your clarification in advance. BlueRoo

From my ongoing education on Technical Analysis

Sentiment and Momentum, should only be used as secondary indicators.

First of all, would come the trend and analysis of the trend.
Secondarily, would come indicators such as sentiment or momentum.
Not something to trade on alone.

From my understanding of news with regards to technical analysis is that news has already been priced in. For me, once I have gotten a good handle on the major fundamentals operating here, such as the Saudis declaring they are not to lower production and the relationship to the American Shale Frackers. Any news for me, is simply turning away your ear from and not worth paying attention to.

On my learning curve, and to be honest is very much on the low end of the curve now, what my curiosity and study has brought me to recently is the crossover between the 10 SMA and the 4 day EMA. And then on to how to use a single moving average as a trend line.

Also, curious about the relationship to the dollar and oil, who or what is leading the way on that one. Just running in tandem or does one take the lead? I am not convinced that they are not just running in tandem.

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