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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #321 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
that because you're making assumptions based on personal bias, and not trading the market. i don't even trade this stuff and i could see that coming from a mile away.

Long 12 @ an average of ~mid 51s (you, not me, obviously)....

Caught a nice one. Impressive trading (not to mention your ES holdings).

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  #322 (permalink)
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Long 12 @ an average of ~mid 51s....

Caught a nice one. Impressive trading (not to mention your ES holdings).

He is on fire (so much to be learned / can be learned / seriously in tune with the market @tigertrader ) !

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  #323 (permalink)
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leinster View Post
He is on fire (so much to be learned / can be learned / seriously in tune with the market @tigertrader ) !

Agree - congrats on a superb trade today, my favorite part was when you said you had no plans to cover. RBOB and HO spreads were very wild today as well.

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  #324 (permalink)
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dreaming


mfbreakout View Post
This is what i am dreaming.


Longs and longs. A down and then C up. Per mark Fisher C up is a set up when traders get caught with their pants down and that was the reason to go long again above 53. The way 54 area got rejected i am hesitant to go long on pullbacks, i was planning to go long around 53.50 area but too much of a pullback. She either takes out 54 or back to 52.50 area. When and how? One just had to dream little bit.

NOTE: Above 54 short squeeze which everyone has been waiting for may come true. It will be easier to trade if it somes before inventory day on Thursday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; February 17th, 2015 at 03:17 PM.
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  #325 (permalink)
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leinster View Post
@tigertrader is it fair to say from an analysis perspective a fat vpoc at start of the day 53.20) a push down with relative ease leaving a lot of untested areas then a fatter distribution (51.70) then after it got over that lump a big push back whoosh to vpoc?

i really don't follow mp that closely. post hoc everything looks like it works; but, charts don't drive price.

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  #326 (permalink)
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Apologies for post hoc know u hate it. What was your main reasoning behind getting long market imbalance move overdone ?

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  #327 (permalink)
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Trading

Why everyone gets bullish at highs and bearish at lows? Maybe because different time frame traders are looking at different highs and lows. That's why it's useless to follow another trader trades with 15 ticks stop loss.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #328 (permalink)
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leinster View Post
Apologies for post hoc know u hate it. What was your main reasoning behind getting long market imbalance move overdone ?

you know me better than that, to believe my decision process was that simple

it was combination of factors that led me to believe that expected value was to the upside

fundamentals, sentiment, price action, et al, all came into play

i explained the context behind the trade in my spoo-nalysis post #14142

when i get a chance i 'll explain the rest...

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  #329 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Why everyone gets bullish at highs and bearish at lows? Maybe because different time frame traders are looking at different highs and lows. That's why it's useless to follow another trader trades with 15 ticks stop loss.


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deflation or reflation is the burning question


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chart shows the 5-30s curve vs. the euro. deflation trade has driven the euro lower as the market priced in ecb/qe which has also been reflected in the curve flattening through a combination of lower long yields and a future fed rate hike being priced in. now that long rates have spiked aggressively higher (bonds sold off) since month-end, the curve has steepened slightly as the euro has attempted to rally. oil prices also squeezed sharply higher, such that a reflation trade following ecb/qe action has followed a similar pattern to what followed the boj as taper talk picked up within weeks of QQE being announced. just as the euro has not broken materially higher, the curve so far, is in a range and near-term flattening remains likely into the next fed minutes. however, rates are signalling a possible regime change.


Last edited by tigertrader; February 17th, 2015 at 04:48 PM.
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