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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,894 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 15th, 2015, 05:21 PM   #271 (permalink)
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Crude oil analysis

Well, thanks for the two requests for my input.

I am curious about the relationship to the dollar to oil and (also to the equities market) any ideas on just how that works. Does the dollar, lead the way on that one? Does oil run second place on that?

Also, does anyone have advice on a charting service? I am still choosing a trading platform. I was not impressed with Ninjatrader's charting. I just signed on to Ameritrade's Think or Swim and I think I lite that better already. I do a lot of extensive chart studies and yet I have not yet found anything better than investing.com which offers a great charting service however they don't list certain futures that I would like to look at.

I don't care if the charting service is different than the platform I choose. Any recommendations just on charting??

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Old February 15th, 2015, 11:03 PM   #272 (permalink)
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Thought id post for once.
CL been somewhat tricky to trade lately. However putting things into context I was following this 4 hour chart closely.
Trade was taken within Asian session right at market open. Shorted a FLUSH up then loaded.


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First trade was stopped out at 40 ticks. In like 2 seconds. Very dangerous with thin liquidity.
Id be curious to see if we go down to 50?

Big shout out to Tariq! Context Context Context!


James

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Old February 15th, 2015, 11:36 PM   #273 (permalink)
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May see some odd volatility due to some participants taking the day off with the shortened Monday trading. Also got a contract roll coming up.

I am trying to figure out if you loaded long when you said "Shorted a FLUSH up then loaded."

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Old February 16th, 2015, 04:36 AM   #274 (permalink)
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I loaded shorts on the move up. If it clearly broke that 4 hour resistance (100 ticks) I would of got out.

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Old February 16th, 2015, 12:11 PM   #275 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Here's a study I'm currently working on. I've set the study to mark the high and low of each two hour time frame. Start time is 0200amET and end time is 1500ET.

When looking at the "count number" it is the number of occurrence long or short. For example if the high or low at 2am was at the top of the hour it would get a one or two (one is high and two is low.) If the high was at 215am it would get 1.25 and if 245am it would get 1.75, reverse for low would be two respectively.

As you can see the 1500ET window is blank and so far the spreadsheet has 41 records. As I enter in more records I suspect the "time bin" will not change much only an increase of occurrence.

How do I know this? On my M1 chart I have marks at the hour, half hour, fifteen minute and forty-five minute. I've been tracking this on /6E and /CL.

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Last edited by WilleeMac; February 16th, 2015 at 12:21 PM. Reason: sp, clarify
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Old February 16th, 2015, 09:27 PM   #276 (permalink)
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Thoughts on where we are going?
Anyone think we can move lower to the 50.00 area before moving up?

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Old February 16th, 2015, 09:38 PM   #277 (permalink)
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Oil Correction

Cl is correcting back towards the prevailing trend line. Currently in a sideways pattern. It seems the target of the correction will be the convergence of the trend line and the noted area of congestion. Key level is 53.45. Then 54.19. Above these levels one would expect the congestion area to be hit. The alternative is that there is a 5 wave price pattern underway. This view would call for a fall back to the lower support line. Will have to trade it as it happens.

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Old February 17th, 2015, 08:59 AM   #278 (permalink)
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If anybody is interested in more information on my post #275

Here: https://futures.io/trading-journals/15779-trading-6e-euro-eur-usd-futures-contract-old-school-twist-58.html#post475308

-Bill

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Old February 17th, 2015, 09:54 AM   #279 (permalink)
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I shorted between 53:10 to 52:80 based off 240 min context. US session finally paid off on move.
I like trading this way. Just VERY HARD to execute entries and manage their risk!
Hope we see 51 - 50.50 this week before rollover.

Good luck

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Old February 17th, 2015, 10:14 AM   #280 (permalink)
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jthom View Post
I shorted between 53:10 to 52:80 based off 240 min context. US session finally paid off on move.
I like trading this way. Just VERY HARD to execute entries and manage their risk!
Hope we see 51 - 50.50 this week before rollover.

Good luck

FWIW my targets are 51.21 and 50.71 and would like to at least see the top one hit today. I have been waiting on this sell-off as well. The poor holiday action drove me crazy...haha.

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