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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,276 / 1,753
Last Reply:22 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 13th, 2015, 12:06 PM   #261 (permalink)
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It took me a long time to understand set ups which are equal to gambling and set ups which have high degree/probability of success.
Traders can not help themselves ( including me) to call tops and bottoms etc. and then use tight stop loss to fight against the machine.
As i have posted many times my highest return trades are FLUSH UP and FLUSH DOWNS. Around 8.30 am eastern time when CL hit 82.97 area- it had some qualities of a flush up.

I shorted 52.89 area. Covered some at 52.60 area and rest scratched. I have been sitting on hands since then. If there are longs for traders looking for 54 etc- it's on pullbacks around ORL area off 52.60 area. I did not take longs on pullbacks and now i just have to sit tight.

If there is a 100+ ticks FLUSH up ( from prce action, it seems like it's just matter of time), i will look at it, otherwise nothing wrong with watching a movie.
How about longs? Longs where ? at 53.20 and then see CL pullback to 52.80 and add to longs? What if CL drops to 52.50 , add more to longs ? That's a different kind of trading and beyond my skillset. CL can drop 40-80 ticks without in a NY minute. This area is very dangerous. It can FLUSH UP ( mor elikely and i would love to see it) or lul new longs at highs and then pull the rug. ONLY traders who have been building positions from 50 and up area have an edge. They can handle 40-80 ticks pullback and still be sitting pretty. JOHNNY COME LATELY trying new longs at highs- well we all know some times get SURPRISED.

ONLY one thing is CLEAR- no shorts without sizeable FLUSH UP or significant selling at highs. CL can run beyond any standard deviation we can think off. Shorts at 53.30 are good also but will require a wide stop loss and ability to add into bounces plus LONG HOLD TIME. It's not about short 53.30 and stop los at 53.41 etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 13th, 2015 at 12:17 PM.
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Old February 13th, 2015, 12:17 PM   #262 (permalink)
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Ugh, still trying to get used to/ incorporate the foot print charts

Time is still time, like clockwork (pun intended)

-Bill

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EDIT

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Last edited by WilleeMac; February 13th, 2015 at 12:30 PM. Reason: add chart/ change chart
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Old February 13th, 2015, 12:21 PM   #263 (permalink)
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Waiting for second target 52.70

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Old February 13th, 2015, 12:27 PM   #264 (permalink)
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Addind to short around .84

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Old February 13th, 2015, 01:07 PM   #265 (permalink)
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Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
I made a comment earlier this morning about front running a measured move 50% retrace and it bothered me that I could not give the folks here a better explanation

I learned a whole bunch of stuff from David Halsey at eminiaddict dot com over the past years, so most of the half-way-back stuff is ingrained in my brain. However it serves no purpose for the folks popping in here (and there.)

David does a damn good job and has a set of rules he sticks to, of which is the maximum front run. Typically it is four for /ES and six for /6E. I can't remember off the top of my head the exact number for /CL but obviously it can't be 20 or something like that.

In the below M1 chart is a good example of a micro measured move with a front run of four (six.) The larger pull that is partially showing (yellow line 50% 5260) is a measured move of low to high, which is a much safer (probability) pull with likely participation (price action.) When I say low you can have Globex, pit open, yesterday number(s) etc. The thing that makes the larger pull a no brainer is it is the low of the morning moonshot to high. It also happens to be 0700amET but that is a story for another day.

Ride safe

-Bill

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Old February 13th, 2015, 01:28 PM   #266 (permalink)
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What is the name of this thred?

The CL analysis thread. How bout the littlest bit of technical analysis thrown in here rather than a quick little of snips

Everyone should remember how dangerous day- trading was when it first came out back in the 90's.
People killed themselves over this.

How bout' looking a bit longer term, at least three god- damned weeks out. At the trend line. CL has now hopped above the trend line. However, I am I going to guess that the trend line is still effective, only now we are above the trend line. The fundamentals are too strong. The Saudis are protecting their asses. They are squeezing out the frackers. At the same time the Saudis are able to strike at the Russians, who a highly dependent upon oil and the Iranians at the same time. I don't know the politics involved. I suspect that it is highly connected to America.

And you have the president of Venezuela, begging to the Chinese to loans, and visiting Iran for support. Oh, God, Christ why can't they just go back to living how poor they were 10 years ago and get used to that. Another question is when Venezuela's bonds are going to default.

I've had this woman from Vantagepoint software trying to sell me on their software several times. She is a good saleswoman. She does good follow-up. The software costs between 3000.00 to 5000.00 depending on which program you buy.

So, I asked here send me a sample, show me WTI crude oil when it jumped up and what was Vantagepoint recommendation on that.

She sent a chart with a crossover between the 10 simple moving average and the four day exponential moving average.

I do trust that other people have put a lot of intelligence and study into the market.

What's are other people's take on the cross - over on the 10 day SMA and the 4 day EMA as a trading strategy.
I looked at Gold and this seems to be quite effective for that.

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Old February 13th, 2015, 01:42 PM   #267 (permalink)
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e4williams View Post
The CL analysis thread. How bout the littlest bit of technical analysis thrown in here rather than a quick little of snips

Everyone should remember how dangerous day- trading was when it first came out back in the 90's.
People killed themselves over this.

How bout' looking a bit longer term, at least three god- damned weeks out. At the trend line. CL has now hopped above the trend line. However, I am I going to guess that the trend line is still effective, only now we are above the trend line. The fundamentals are too strong. The Saudis are protecting their asses. They are squeezing out the frackers. At the same time the Saudis are able to strike at the Russians, who a highly dependent upon oil and the Iranians at the same time. I don't know the politics involved. I suspect that it is highly connected to America.

And you have the president of Venezuela, begging to the Chinese to loans, and visiting Iran for support. Oh, God, Christ why can't they just go back to living how poor they were 10 years ago and get used to that. Another question is when Venezuela's bonds are going to default.

I've had this woman from Vantagepoint software trying to sell me on their software several times. She is a good saleswoman. She does good follow-up. The software costs between 3000.00 to 5000.00 depending on which program you buy.

So, I asked here send me a sample, show me WTI crude oil when it jumped up and what was Vantagepoint recommendation on that.

She sent a chart with a crossover between the 10 simple moving average and the four day exponential moving average.

I do trust that other people have put a lot of intelligence and study into the market.

What's are other people's take on the cross - over on the 10 day SMA and the 4 day EMA as a trading strategy.
I looked at Gold and this seems to be quite effective for that.

It may help to ask a specific question from the posts different traders post. There is pletny of technical analysis. It's just not in one post. futures.io (formerly BMT) community relies on different point of views and ideas. Look forward to your posts regarding your trades and set ups. I can not comment on Vanatge or any other software. Each trader has to develop context for BIG PICTURE and tools for execution. I am not aware of any software which provides conetx for trading. There is an existing thread at futures.io (formerly BMT) where vendors of all kinds are discussed. Look under search tab.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 13th, 2015 at 01:59 PM.
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Old February 13th, 2015, 02:00 PM   #268 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
I made a comment earlier this morning about front running a measured move 50% retrace and it bothered me that I could not give the folks here a better explanation

I learned a whole bunch of stuff from David Halsey at eminiaddict dot com over the past years, so most of the half-way-back stuff is ingrained in my brain. However it serves no purpose for the folks popping in here (and there.)

David does a damn good job and has a set of rules he sticks to, of which is the maximum front run. Typically it is four for /ES and six for /6E. I can't remember off the top of my head the exact number for /CL but obviously it can't be 20 or something like that.

In the below M1 chart is a good example of a micro measured move with a front run of four (six.) The larger pull that is partially showing (yellow line 50% 5260) is a measured move of low to high, which is a much safer (probability) pull with likely participation (price action.) When I say low you can have Globex, pit open, yesterday number(s) etc. The thing that makes the larger pull a no brainer is it is the low of the morning moonshot to high. It also happens to be 0700amET but that is a story for another day.

Ride safe

-Bill

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Nice


Have You had your boat in the water lately, or the scooter out of the shed?

Just kidding, well actually rubbing it in a little Cold up there in "Old Kin-tuck" this time of year I'm sure.


Last edited by Cashish; February 13th, 2015 at 09:39 PM.
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Old February 13th, 2015, 10:35 PM   #269 (permalink)
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Old February 14th, 2015, 07:41 AM   #270 (permalink)
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@e4williams


Quoting 
And you have the president of Venezuela

I'm more interested in the President of Argentina, say'n

Anyway, like @mfbreakout said jump in, chime in

-Bill_M

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