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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2291 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
If you believe Raoul Pal this is just the beginning of the Oil rout and is all tied into the bigger Global Macro picture. Already experiencing a global slowdown, and about to have a global recession. Now add in a massive US-China trade war and China devaluing their currency* - which effects everybody. The US already has a massive pension crisis around the corner, but what happens if we do have a sell off and the baby boomers start panic selling? There's a lot more on Real Vision TV but he's Long Bonds (well actually Eurodollars (which is USD LIBOR not EUR:USD), Long Gold, Long Bitcoin, Short Equities, Short Crude and some other (non-precious metal) commodities. So far he's been very right on the Eurodollars** - which is his biggest recommendation - and the Gold and Bitcoin. In contrast historically some of his crude oil calls have been pretty poor I believe.

Long Raoul twitter thread with lots of charts. Warning: Doom & Gloom the world is coming to an end.
https://threader.app/thread/1159076338126532610

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  #2292 (permalink)
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Interesting crude curve shape currently.

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Which got me thinking. Have I ever seen a U shape that steep before. Just eyeballing that chart you can see that both Z9 and Z4 are about $3 above Z1. So despite the Z9-Z4 spread being approximately flat, the Z9-Z1-Z4 Butterfly is approximately $6!

So to keep things symmetrical I want to look at Z9-Z1-Z3 which is obviously not quite as exaggerated. Also I want to look at 'constant maturity'. So since Z9 is currently the 4th contract I am going to look at CL04-CL28-CL52 and this is what we get.

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So yes, in the last 5 years, this is about as U'y as the curve has ever been!

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  #2293 (permalink)
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Sorry 2nd post.
Right after I posted that, I thought, doesn't the Eurodollar (ie 90 day LIBOR) curve have the same shape.

Obviously axis are scaled but interesting none the less.

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For those that don't know Eurodollar Futures prices are (100 minus the 90 day LIBOR rate on the day of expiry) so a price of 98 represents an interest rate of 2%

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  #2294 (permalink)
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Found that putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly better using 12 month calendars rather than outrights (of course cost is commissions)


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  #2295 (permalink)
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jokertrader View Post
putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly

You did that? While it definitely looks out of whack, Z9's a little close to expiry for my liking.

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In Sim was more testing TT


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$DWT getting lots of attention today and also yesterday. Seems CL is meeting resistance at this level.

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