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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2221 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Dallas Fed :- Oil and Gas Sector Growth Stalls amid Sharp Oil Price Decline

Growth in energy sector activity slowed significantly in fourth quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The business activity index—the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms—remained positive, but barely so, plunging from 43.3 in the third quarter to 2.3 in the fourth. Readings near zero indicate activity was largely unchanged from the prior quarter, a break from the 10-quarter-long trend of rising activity. The decrease in the fourth-quarter index was driven by both exploration and production (E&P) and oilfield services firms.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2018/1804.aspx

Reuters :- OPEC oil output posts biggest drop since 2017 on Saudi move

OPEC oil supply fell in December by the largest amount in almost two years, a Reuters survey found, as top exporter Saudi Arabia made an early start to a supply-limiting accord while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines.

The 15-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 32.68 million barrels per day last month, the survey on Thursday found, down 460,000 bpd from November and the largest month-on-month drop since January 2017.
https://af.reuters.com/article/congoNews/idAFL8N1Z33J5

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  #2222 (permalink)
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After 2 months in contango Oil getting bullish green shoots finally . I am a dip buyer

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  #2223 (permalink)
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Well I am still in the other camp building short spread positions...though hurting a bit


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  #2224 (permalink)
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Well I am still in the other camp building short spread positions...though hurting a bit


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Ive built a model so i just do what it says


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Ozquant View Post
After 2 months in contango Oil getting bullish green shoots finally . I am a dip buyer

It's interesting how both in futures and options you also need to get the contract right besides the trade direction. I think I hopped on too early with my USO Calls but "mid term" I got the direction right both on Crude and Gold. I'll be looking for 90 - 120 Days To Expiration now... 45 days to expiration (or front month contract) as suggested in some places seems too short when price is consolidating...

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  #2226 (permalink)
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CL on target for the biggest run of green days ever in this 25% run from recent lows .


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  #2227 (permalink)
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Ozquant View Post
Spreads are expanding

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OzQuant, May I ask why your data sets do not seem to run from oldest to newest to assist in following the time line trends? Or at least that seems to be the way are listed in the upper left. I.e... the top one is U20 is above the 19's. I know this goes back a bit to Decemebr but wondered if there was rhyme to this reason?

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  #2228 (permalink)
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jmont1 View Post
OzQuant, May I ask why your data sets do not seem to run from oldest to newest to assist in following the time line trends? Or at least that seems to be the way are listed in the upper left. I.e... the top one is U20 is above the 19's. I know this goes back a bit to Decemebr but wondered if there was rhyme to this reason?

How the different contracts are listed has zero input in how data is displayed . Its meaningless

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  #2229 (permalink)
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Ozquant View Post
How the different contracts are listed has zero input in how data is displayed . Its meaningless

@Ozquant, correct but when I look at the index in the upper left corner I see green as the first color - that should indicate it is the earliest timeframe so I was surprised how it did not seem to correlate. Then I looked further to see that it is not the expected earliest or even latest timeframe. It falls inside at 2nd to last.

Interesting in that it starts where should be expected at 2nd from bottom. End of chart it is 2nd from top.

Do you have any education you can pass along about what this spread expansion forecasts?

That is just the way a standard reading of a chart would work. But thanks for the chart anyway -- made me think.

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  #2230 (permalink)
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Any idea what's caused WTI to get nailed today?

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