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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,055 / 1,755
Last Reply:12 Hours Ago (02:44 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 10th, 2015, 06:15 PM   #211 (permalink)
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API INVENTORIES
--------------------------------
Crude: 1600k BUILD vs 6100k BUILD prev
Cushing: 979k BUILD vs 2600k BUILD prev
Gasoline : 1600k BUILD vs 2000k BUILD prev
Distillates : 497K BUILD vs 278k BUILD prev
R. U . Rate : DOWN 0.5 % at 88.7 %


I do not look at API numbers. For example if instead of juming 50 ticks to the upside after report if CL was down 50 ticks, i would have added to my shorts regardless of what report says. Some traders get too bogged down by actual numbers.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 10th, 2015, 06:22 PM   #212 (permalink)
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One of the biggest lessons of technical analysis is that it is important to understand how markets usually move. If we can do that, then it becomes possible (in some cases) to identify what the most probable future price path is for any market. Let’s consider crude oil in this context:

Crude Oil Corrective Retracement?

crude oil bounce_corrective wave chart February 2015

In trends, markets typically move in alternating bouts of with-trend strength, interspersed with retracements (or consolidations) against that trend. That’s essentially a principle of market behavior, and is one of the most common trending patterns. Crude oil has been in a substantial downtrend since at least October 2014, and perhaps longer, depending how you define the trend. The recent Crude Oil bounce appears to have suckered in a lot of buyers, since under $50 crude appears to be a “bargain” to many players. Furthermore, strength in crude is being offered as an explanation for recent strength in stocks. All of this could be very dangerous.

There is a high probability that this bounce is nothing more than a retracement in an intact downtrend. Look at the chart above, which makes this clear. Even more dangerous would be another small bounce in crude oil, perhaps extending another week or so. (This is fairly likely.) Even with that second bounce, we will still probably have only outlined a larger Crude Oil bounce against the trend, and there’s a good chance this market will turn lower again.

Understanding market structure like this can help you put your trades in context. If you are a short-term trader, there’s probably nothing wrong with buying oil here, but where is your stop? It doesn’t need to be under the January lows – that’s more of a profit target for bears. Conversely, if you are short here, you probably need to be prepared for the possibility of another Crude Oil bounce, perhaps even to stand ready to short into that bounce, with appropriate stops and risk controls. Understand your market. Know your risk. Plan your trade, and trade your plan.

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No position in any of the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 10th, 2015, 06:44 PM   #213 (permalink)
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good stuff

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Old February 10th, 2015, 08:03 PM   #214 (permalink)
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I thought crude would come up higher above 52.50 this morning to at least test 53.00
Instead I watched it fall off a cliff. Was not confident to enter in anywhere.

Nice trading @mfbreakout . Well analysed.

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Old February 11th, 2015, 12:49 AM   #215 (permalink)
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I thought crude would come up higher above 52.50 this morning to at least test 53.00
Instead I watched it fall off a cliff. Was not confident to enter in anywhere.

Nice trading @mfbreakout . Well analysed.

If you did not feel comfortable shorting at ORH once OR was formed- next more definitive short was when 51.80 was broken.
51.80 being Globex low.

I also thought that CL will go to 53 etc that's why my short was with a small position size and added to short once 51.80 was broken.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 11th, 2015, 08:00 AM   #216 (permalink)
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Well reaction to API report is bullish. It does not matter what the report says, PRICE ACTION says 50 is REAL today. Out of balance of short at scratch at 50.80. By Bullish, I only mean that CL can run some during Globex session. Macro structure is still bearish for me. Range for me till DOE report is 50 to 52.50 area. I just have to make sure i do not initiate a new short close to 50 or new long close to 52.50 area.


6.55 AM and CL is at 49.70? What happened to that 80 ticks move from 50.40 area to 51.20 after API report yesterday?
First the move shook me out of my shorts from 50.80 area and it turned out to be a head fake. It happens but i have to follow my RULES.

Now for me CL is in a NO MANS land. If i short STOP LOSS is too wide ( above 51.20 and 51.80 area) and if i go long STOP LOSS will be under 49. I will just have to sit on hands and wait.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 11th, 2015, 08:14 AM   #217 (permalink)
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Execution of a trade:

Regardless of how i come up with resistance area of 51.20, 51.80 etc whether it's based of PRICE ACTION, pattern etc.
One thing never ever changes for me. I need a FLUSH UP. Bigger the FLUSH UP, bigger the position size. If CL just moves back and forth and come to an area where i would like to short, i use small position size.

As an example, lets say CL moves from 49.50 area to 50.50 ( 100 ticks ) in one 5 minute bar and then another massive bar or subsequent smaller bars to 51 area- I will SHORT the hell of it. If no FLUSH UP and CL keeps moving up in a slow up and down move- there is no telling where she will stop. It can be 51.20, 51.80 or 53 etc. Similalrly, it will be much easier to try long on FLUSH DOWN vs just guessing as to where support is.

FLUSH UP OR FLUSH DOWN represents a change to me. Good trading opportunities ONLY comes when there is a change. Following is an example of few choice USELESS commentory from various sources. Most of these guys live or die in a SCALPING UNIVERSE but they are full of ideas, feelngs etc.. All post are from yesterday night eastern time.

1) Yes with inv not great we can go above 54.60 ! Bullish 10.40 pm

2) $53 is possible once we bottom! 10 pm

3) Yes we can ignite up higher with inv wow !!!!yes 70 in March !!! !!!!!!! Bullish

4) Desperate desperate shorts we may never see 48 we can ignite much higher Bullish 11.44 pm

5) long at 50.22 for 20 contracts...looking for a run into 50.47 to 50.65 ...will tighten the stop soon.. Bullish 10.45 pm

6) Should bottom in the $48-49 range before shooting up to that $60 mark! 11 pm


Internet is a wonderful thing. In an itself there is nothing wrong with above statements except that they are looking for these ideas to play out with a TIGHT STOP. Tighter the better. Men by nature are focused and like certain things being very tight.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 11th, 2015 at 08:38 AM.
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Old February 11th, 2015, 09:34 AM   #218 (permalink)
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Short 50.11. Cover some 49.70

Who cut prices when demand is STRONG and SUPPLY is tight?

" Bloomberg) -- Iraq, Kuwait and Iran joined Saudi Arabia in cutting their March crude prices for Asia, signaling the battle for a share of OPEC’s largest market is intensifying.
Iraq’s Basrah Light crude will sell at $4.10 a barrel below Middle East benchmarks, the deepest discount since at least August 2003, the Oil Marketing Co. said Tuesday. National Iranian Oil Co. said its official selling price for March Light crude sales will be a discount of $2.10 a barrel, the widest since at least March 2000, according to a company official who asked not to be identified because of corporate policy. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. said Wednesday its discount will be $4.10, the biggest since August 2008.
The cuts come after Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, reduced pricing to Asia last week to the lowest in at least 14 years. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left its members’ output targets unchanged at a November meeting, choosing to compete for market share against U.S. shale producers rather than support prices. Iraq is the second-biggest producer in OPEC, Kuwait is third and Iran fourth.
“This is an effort by some producers to protect market share,” Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said by phone Tuesday. “It’s really straightforward; cutting prices is how you keep your foot in the door.”



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 11th, 2015, 11:54 AM   #219 (permalink)
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Old February 11th, 2015, 03:24 PM   #220 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Execution of a trade:

Regardless of how i come up with resistance area of 51.20, 51.80 etc whether it's based of PRICE ACTION, pattern etc.
One thing never ever changes for me. I need a FLUSH UP. Bigger the FLUSH UP, bigger the position size. If CL just

Would you mind explaining what you mean by flush up/down? Also, can you contrast this to your other comment about scalping?

Thanks!

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