To trade a fly in terms of the calendar would be
- To buy the Z1/Z2/Z3 fly, I would buy the Z1/Z2 calendar and Sell the Z2/Z3 calendar
- To sell the Z1/Z2/Z3 fly, I would sell the Z1/Z2 calendar and buy the Z2/Z3 calendar
Right?

So in reality, looking at the DOM right now,
the Z1/Z2 has a bid of 1.36 and an Ask of 1.60
the Z2/Z3 has a bid of 0.60 and an Ask of 0.73

So if i am selling the Z1/Z2/Z3
Sell the Z1/Z2 at the bid of 1.36 and buy the Z2/Z3 at Ask of 0.73, puts me at 0.63 cents or work the legs in the middle???
I know a pretty basic question but want to know if the data i am collecting and the way i am able to trade will actually match

SMCJB 

Interestingly, despite the back end strength, the rig count seems to have stalled being up only a few rigs since the end of May versus +110 in first five months of year.

Rig count was down 9 on Friday, back to 860, Nay 25th was 259 so we've gained 1 rig in the last 3 months. In addition the COT non-commercial net long dropped considerably last week (34k) and is now at its lowest level since mid November last year.

jokertrader 

To trade a fly in terms of the calendar would be - To buy the Z1/Z2/Z3 fly, I would buy the Z1/Z2 calendar and Sell the Z2/Z3 calendar - To sell the Z1/Z2/Z3 fly, I would sell the Z1/Z2 calendar and buy the Z2/Z3 calendar Right? So in reality, looking at the DOM right now, the Z1/Z2 has a bid of 1.36 and an Ask of 1.60 the Z2/Z3 has a bid of 0.60 and an Ask of 0.73 So if i am selling the Z1/Z2/Z3 Sell the Z1/Z2 at the bid of 1.36 and buy the Z2/Z3 at Ask of 0.73

Monday 11:06 Eastern. 140/144 and 75/83 so 57/69

jokertrader 

puts me at 0.63 cents or work the legs in the middle???

I use an autospreader. So if I was a 65 seller, the autospreader would offer z1z2 @ 134 and join the z2xz3 bid at 75.
I'd be careful putting legs down past z0/z1

Piece by John Kemp talking about the issues in the Permian Basin putting a cap on US production...

U.S. oil boom starts to cool, tightening global market
https://www.reuters.com/?edition-redirect=af

The biggest problem is the lack of sufficient pipeline capacity to move oil from shale wells ... But production in the Permian Basin has also been constrained by shortages of labour, equipment and materials, which have pushed drilling, pressure pumping and completion costs sharply higher ... Midland crude is currently trading at discount of $14 per barrel compared with Cushing, while Cushing is itself priced at a further discount of $10 to Brent.

We are dealing with this very issue. We are doing joint ventures to get our west Texas oil to the coast.

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SMCJB 

In addition the COT non-commercial net long dropped considerably last week (34k) and is now at its lowest level since mid November last year.

Open Interest seems to be in a sharp decline since May... I am thinking on buying a couple of USO Puts, hopefully have vega help my case with an increase on implied volatility. This shall balance my long SPY calls. I guess we'll see on Monday.

Update: I am taking back what I said on the trading position, not because I am not short biased but I have never really backtested this trade.

A surprisingly non-bullish interview with Art Berman over at MacroVoices

https://www.macrovoices.com/

Interesting correlation between front month to following month spread against CL actual . Might be nothing but i love finding these types of anomalies



Spec commitment also worth watching at multi decade extremes over 2018




Plenty to be made in both directions of course but i do think we are at a point where upside limited for rest of year into next year

Ozquant 

Interesting correlation between front month to following month spread against CL actual . Might be nothing but i love finding these types of

Very interesting, what platform are you using?
Thanks.




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Guys I finally did it. I got a webinar scheduled that will have some focus on trading CL. It has only taken 2 years lol.

Webinar: CL - Finding Your Edge with Unique Technical Indicators w/Richard Weissman Hi guys, It is my pleasure to welcome back Richard Weissman for a webinar event sponsored by DTN IQFeed, on Tuesday October 16th @ 4:30 PM Eastern US. The title for this event is "Finding Your Edge & Maximizing Returns with Unique Technical …