Ozquant 

August oil futures were down 2.35% in the first 5m bar after weekend open . End of story ... I have no idea what you are talking about

We were talking about the fundamentals and how they effected the market. You seem to be talking about a single 5 minute bar. If you got stopped out, or had a profit target that got hit on that bar, your 100% right. (Remember Monday's low was still higher than Friday's low). If you didn't though, CLQ rallied back and almost settled unchanged. CLZ on the other hand sold off early and continued to sell off all day, significantly widening the Q-Z spread, which is what we were discussing. So I don't think its black and white as you say.. somebody looking at a RTH wouldn't see any of what you highlighted.

Your initial 5% down prediction was a bold one, and accurate in direction and severity if not magnitude and you should be commended for it. I on the other hand am just talking about something that already happened, monday morning quarterbacking as they say here. My position was setup to make money on a front end sell off. Unfortunately I was wrong and lost money on the whole move.

Where do you think it goes from here? Seems like we had a massive speculative long position liquidation in the most recent commitment of traders report. Despite that though we still seem to be very tight, with Sep $1.40 over October. Then there's Iran, offset by a potential SPR sale.

SMCJB 

We were talking about the fundamentals and how they effected the market. You seem to be talking about a single 5 minute bar. If you got stopped out, or had a profit target that got hit on that bar, your 100% right. (Remember Monday's low was still higher than Friday's low). If you didn't though, CLQ rallied back and almost settled unchanged. CLZ on the other hand sold off early and continued to sell off all day, significantly widening the Q-Z spread, which is what we were discussing. So I don't think its black and white as you say.. somebody looking at a RTH wouldn't see any of what you highlighted. Your initial 5% down prediction was a bold one, and accurate in direction and severity if not magnitude and you should be commended for it. I on the other hand am just talking about something that already happened, monday morning quarterbacking as they say here. My position was setup to make money on a front end sell off. Unfortunately I was wrong and lost money on the whole move. Where do you think it goes from here? Seems like we had a massive speculative long position liquidation in the most recent commitment of traders report. Despite that though we still seem to be very tight, with Sep $1.40 over October. Then there's Iran, offset by a potential SPR sale.

Spreads have tightened and we had the washout , i think downside limited medium term . CL was a tad extended and regardless of that Trump news that was rescinded it was always going to retrace imo. I had the 65 area pegged for support as conviction buy area

Ozquant 

Spreads have tightened and we had the washout , i think downside limited medium term . CL was a tad extended and regardless of that Trump news that was rescinded it was always going to retrace imo. I had the 65 area pegged for support as conviction buy area

Hi,
nice chart data idea. Does it represent the price for each futures expiration contract? Think and hope so...
Is there an easy place to get it online-updated?
Thank you!

davidfa 

Hi, nice chart data idea. Does it represent the price for each futures expiration contract? Think and hope so... Is there an easy place to get it online-updated? Thank you!

yes it does!
you can see delayed quotes on the cme website

or you can get a tt demo account and see delayed data

SMCJB 

While ride in CL today

SMCJB, do you have any idea as for the significant move down and back up again yesterday in Crude?



These guys did not seem to attribute it to a particular cause

Quoting 

FX FX markets have calmed from the prior day’s EM sell-off with the USD index relatively flat above the 96.00 level, while its counterparts struggled for direction in which EUR/USD struggled to hold above 1.1400 and with GBP/USD kept rangebound at the 1.2700 handle. Elsewhere, the improvement in risk-tone helped USD/JPY and JPY-crosses sustain their recovery while commodity-linked currencies also saw mild gains amid the rebound in crude, although upside in AUD was contained by the disappointing Chinese data and softness in CNH after the PBoC continued to weaken the reference rate. COMMODITIES Commodities were relatively flat with WTI crude futures marginally higher as trade stabilized from the prior day’s volatility in which prices slumped briefly below USD 66/bbl before paring nearly all the losses to reclaim the USD 67/bbl level heading into the settlement. Elsewhere, gold languished and only managed to nurse a miniscule portion of Monday’s USD-induced losses, while copper was indecisive amid similar price action across the complex and the mixed overnight risk tone. Escondida copper mine workers union are to extend discussions with the BHP for another day. (Newswires)

xplorer 

SMCJB, do you have any idea as for the significant move down and back up again yesterday in Crude? These guys did not seem to attribute it to a particular cause

Because there was none
It was a basic Forex CFD type movement that isnt normally associated with Crude. Typically a purposed $2+ move means $2-$4+ move and stay there (that session), no second chances.

Since the move meant nothing, price continuation will of course thrust as usual during pre-New York open, euro session close and Wednesday morning reports.

gltu!

Ozquant 

Spreads have tightened and we had the washout , i think downside limited medium term . CL was a tad extended and regardless of that Trump news that was rescinded it was always going to retrace imo. I had the 65 area pegged for support as conviction buy area

Taken a while .. Spreads closed right up , open interest dropped of , Crowed trade dissipated

Forward Spreads can help tell some of the story

Agreed. While Z8 is $5 off it's high's Z20 is only $2 lower, and trading $4 higher than it was at a similar Z8 price on the way up. It's even more pronounced further back where Z25 is only pennies below it's 2018 high and a $1.50 higher than where it was when Z8 put in it's end June highs. Interestingly, despite the back end strength, the rig count seems to have stalled being up only a few rigs since the end of May versus +110 in first five months of year.

Visual 2yr spread