The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:216,548 / 2,148
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:545

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 545  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2141 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston+Texas/United States
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader, Motivewave
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, Oanda, TD Ameritrade
Favorite Futures: CL GC
 
ch123456's Avatar
 
Posts: 68 since Nov 2015
Thanks: 19 given, 53 received

Major Level in Sight

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
 
  #2142 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, United Kingdom
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker/Data: Bloomberg
Favorite Futures: Energies
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 
Posts: 304 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 1,060 given, 380 received

"Darren Woods is mounting a strong defense of his plan to rescue Exxon Mobil Corp. from its share-price slump with $200 billion of investment over seven years that’s at odds with the belt-tightening undertaken by rivals.

Woods’ solution, outlined in a Wednesday interview, is to invest heavily in mega-projects that he says are so low cost they’ll dominate oil and natural gas markets for decades to come."

Read the rest here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/exxon-ceo-s-solution-to-slumping-shares-drill-big-drill-better



I think this is a sensible call and one that we'll see a lot of major players start doing (if they haven't already) as the market dismisses the 'lower for longer' rhetoric and starts looking back towards the $100 mark as we continue the over/under supply cycles in Oil.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to CobblersAwls for this post:
 
  #2143 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,421 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,961 given, 4,090 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


The Baker Hughes rig count report shows U.S. oil rig count increased by 15 in the latest week to 859.
This is the highest level in over 3 years.
It's +112 since year end.
It's +543 since the May'16 low of 316.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #2144 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Antonio Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader Thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC, and ZS
 
Posts: 84 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 41 given, 33 received

Rig or not a rig. That is the question...


SMCJB View Post
The Baker Hughes rig count report shows U.S. oil rig count increased by 15 in the latest week to 859.
This is the highest level in over 3 years.
It's +112 since year end.
It's +543 since the May'16 low of 316.


I was standing on top of one of our tanks the other day and saw three or four up where there had been none. Made me wonder how the determine a new "rig". Is it when the start rigging up or is it when the start drilling or only at completion?

Reading your posts on trading crude oil curve anomalies is very interesting. I looked up Curve Advisor......$799 a month for a basic subscription??? They must be VERY proud of their product! But there is a 25% off coupon.


Last edited by Futuresnoob; June 19th, 2018 at 07:33 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Futuresnoob for this post:
 
  #2145 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,421 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,961 given, 4,090 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


SMCJB View Post
The Baker Hughes rig count report shows U.S. oil rig count increased by 15 in the latest week to 859.
This is the highest level in over 3 years.
It's +112 since year end.
It's +543 since the May'16 low of 316.

For what it's worth in the last 3 weeks it's increased by another 4 (+2 +1 +1) to 863.

Futuresnoob View Post
I was standing on top of one of our tanks the other day and saw three or four up where there had been none. Made me wonder how the determine a new "rig". Is it when the start rigging up or is it when the start drilling or only at completion?

Interesting question so I looked it up.

Rig Count FAQs | BakerHughes.com
To be counted as active a rig must be on location and be drilling or 'turning to the right'. A rig is considered active from the moment the well is "spudded" until it reaches target depth or "TD". Rigs that are in transit from one location to another, rigging up or being used in non-drilling activities such as workovers, completions or production testing, are NOT counted as active.

Futuresnoob View Post
Reading your posts on trading crude oil curve anomalies is very interesting. I looked up Curve Advisor......$799 a month for a basic subscription??? They must be VERY proud of their product! But there is a 25% off coupon.

Just to be clear, Curve Advisor is a Eurodollar newsletter and not crude. I get the free - several weeks delayed version - and do not pay the subscription. It's interesting to see how he thinks about the eurodollar curve but to be honest it hasn't given me any new ideas for crude. There's just to much 'interest rate speak' in there that i do not understand for it to be really valuable. I do dabble in Eurodollars, and have been mildly successful (up last year, and this year), mostly looking for mean reversion of double flys. In reality though I'm not sure it's worth the effort (small profits for commission heavy multi leg trades), or whether it's just all newbee luck! If it wasn't for the fact that I'm sat here all day watching screens I wouldn't be doing it.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #2146 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Antonio Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader Thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC, and ZS
 
Posts: 84 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 41 given, 33 received

SMCJB,


Thanks. That's awesome to know. Working in the energy industry it's interesting for me to know what moves the prices of the products we move and store.

Jason

Reply With Quote
 
  #2147 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Antonio Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader Thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC, and ZS
 
Posts: 84 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 41 given, 33 received

Spreads.

In my reading through this tread I see that the smart trades seem some type spread or combination of spreads. One of my stead fast rules(after losing tons of money, a lot of it on a gas crack) is to never enter a trade without a stop in place. Is it possible to do this with a spread given that there are at least to moving parts?

Jason

Reply With Quote
 
  #2148 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,421 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,961 given, 4,090 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

There are exchange listed spreads for most time spreads but there are also now exchange listed spreads for most of the cracks against both WTI & Brent, and of course for WTI-Brent itself. So if you have access to these spreads it's technically possible to enter stop orders. The problem is some of these spreads have little liquidity. For example 9:04 Central 21-Jun the HOCL-X8 (Nov18 Heating Oil Crack) spread is 24.19/24.24 vs a settlement of 24.77 with NO trades. Hence if you had a 24.50 stop it wouldn't have triggered yet, even though the market is 30c through it!

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #2149 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Antonio Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader Thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC, and ZS
 
Posts: 84 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 41 given, 33 received


SMCJB View Post
There are exchange listed spreads for most time spreads but there are also now exchange listed spreads for most of the cracks against both WTI & Brent, and of course for WTI-Brent itself. So if you have access to these spreads it's technically possible to enter stop orders. The problem is some of these spreads have little liquidity. For example 9:04 Central 21-Jun the HOCL-X8 (Nov18 Heating Oil Crack) spread is 24.19/24.24 vs a settlement of 24.77 with NO trades. Hence if you had a 24.50 stop it wouldn't have triggered yet, even though the market is 30c through it!


Ouch. I think what I may do is place the stop on one leg where the setup is and force myself to exit the other side if its hit. This will require me to sit at this computer(As if I don't do that already). But mental stops have never been my strength. Someone else told me it might be possible to place a conditional order to exit the other side if the first side is hit but that would be dependent on the broker and platform. The idea of using options was also a possibility.

I like the idea of trading spreads but as with all trading tools they have to be used correctly. Now to find out what CORRECTLY is. Thanks SMCJB.

Jason

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Futuresnoob for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Updating schedule soon for June

June
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 02:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 4th, 2014 11:47 PM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 03:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 12:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 09:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:42 PM.

Copyright © 2018 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2018-06-23 in 0.10 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.81.105.205