adam777 

Thanks for the information about the implied CL flys. I checked through the CL flys in TT. Do all the 1, 3, 6 and 12 month flys for the above mentioned time period now automatically have implied pricing switched on?

They are automatically implied by the exchange yes although I believe TT has a setting when you can not show the implieds if you want. Should be worth noting that there are now probably 25 consecutive 1 month flys and other popular 1 month flies (KMN, XZF), popular 2 (JMQ, VZG) & 3 month flies (ZHM, HMU, MUZ, UZH etc) out 4 or 5 years, but the implication range is still only the first 12 months plus June and December for two additional years. Hence not all of the listed flies do imply. So any trades in X9Z9F0 (which trades quiet a lot) are all actual trades in the fly and not implied from spreads/outrights.

What is generally considered to be the end of the "day session", 2:30 PM ET or 5:00 PM ET?

jstnbrg 

What is generally considered to be the end of the "day session", 2:30 PM ET or 5:00 PM ET?

The settlement/closing range is 2:28-2:30 eastern. The Globex close is 5pm easterm.

2:30 eastern was the close of the pit session, and if there is such a thing as RTH then this would be it's close. When you look at EOD data, the close value is the 2:30 settlement price. If your looking at bars with smaller timeframes than daily, the close of the last bar, will be the last trade before 5pm eastern, and as such can be very different than the close of the daily bar.

I have noticed on CME web site the open interest for April contract is higher then the current one. But there is yet one week until the rollover. Is that normal?

This data would imply that 8-10 days prior to expiry 2nd month OI passes Pompt Month OI.
Remember website data is always a day old.

Bloomberg :- OPEC's Oil Price Nightmare Is Coming True

... the weekly data, which aren't revised retrospectively, are catching up with monthly estimates that give a more accurate picture of output. For much of last summer, the weekly data were heavily criticized for over-estimating U.S. output growth. Now, the reverse is true. Assessments of the output in October and November based on the weekly data were about 370,000 barrels a day lower than the monthly figures ... The production surge shown in the monthly data is unprecedented. Output rose by almost 850,000 barrels a day between August and November. It makes the first shale boom of 2014-15 look sluggish.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-11/opec-s-oil-price-nightmare-is-coming-true

SMCJB 

This data would imply that 8-10 days prior to expiry 2nd month OI passes Pompt Month OI. Remember website data is always a day old.

Where do you get that chart from?

icog 

Where do you get that chart from?

I have the Morningstar Commodity Data Add-In for Excel which makes generating charts like that very easy. Just called the OI for the last 7 CL futures over the last 7 months, subtracted, and lined them up.

Are there any known CL traders out there that y'all would be interested in seeing in a webinar? I am looking for ideas.

Thanks,
Terry

tturner86 

Are there any known CL traders out there that y'all would be interested in seeing in a webinar? I am looking for ideas. Thanks, Terry

Art Berman has done some excellent podcasts over at MacroVoices. They are fundamental in nature rather than trading in nature but he does talk about price forecasts and price/supply relationships. Given that it's not purely trading maybe not a perfect fit, but I think his presentations are excellent.

Full credit for this goes to @manuel999 as he was the one who alerted me to Art...

manuel999 

Here is an interesting article from Art Berman's blog, an expert in the oil drilling industry: Art Berman Higher Oil Prices Are Likely in Early 2018 - Art Berman He argues CL prices will increase in the near future. Demand will increase, while US shale output will decrease.