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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2101 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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jokertrader View Post
I am sure you are doing this but would be great if you can share your current analysis on the fly.. to see if there are any mean reverting opportunities...... (sorry wont ask any more this month)When i get back need to download my own data and will perform the analysis and maybe use this to compare
thnx

This hopefully explains what I'm thinking... (aka which one looks to be the odd one out)
z (1), then zz (11), then zzz (121), then zzzz (1331)
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For what it's worth, we're beginning to get to the point where I start deemphasizing z8

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  #2102 (permalink)
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IEA Sees ‘Explosive’ Growth in U.S. Oil Output as Prices Rally

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  #2103 (permalink)
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cl


question for traders CL day or swing.
do you just go to the chart or search for the gogle and look for news that you need to move the price in favor of your position?
thank you

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  #2104 (permalink)
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Just listening to a podcast where they were discussing how the recent bull run in commodities is more a USD 'thing' than a commodity 'thing' which made me run some numbers...

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  #2105 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Just listening to a podcast where they were discussing how the recent bull run in commodities is more a USD 'thing' than a commodity 'thing' which made me run some numbers...

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Looks like BS then

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  #2106 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Just listening to a podcast where they were discussing how the recent bull run in commodities is more a USD 'thing' than a commodity 'thing' which made me run some numbers...

What is your intrepretation of the chart?

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  #2107 (permalink)
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What is your intrepretation of the chart?

Well as you would suspect it doesnt show that the whole move in oil is due to dollar weakness - there has been a significant shift in the fundamentals - but it does show that the move is 25% less in Euro's, so maybe dollar weakness is part of the fuel.

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  #2108 (permalink)
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USD has had a big move down so it is certainly a factor in the increase in Crude. USD DOWN = commodity priced in USD UP

Is it all about USD? No, it never is. But it's an important factor.

Ask anyone producing Canadian crude, and trying to repatriate that revenue to Canada, how they feel about the recent jump in oil prices combined with a healthy increase in CAD due to the USD tanking.

The answer usually is "I'm drilling in Texas now."

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  #2109 (permalink)
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Now this is interesting. Below is the chart of Dec'2023 crude, instead of prompt month, in USD and EUR again. This shows that as front crude has rallied 50% in the last 6 months (in USD) it's unchanged in the back of the curve, and actually down 10% in Euro's.

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Interesting points @SMCJB, I've looked into these correlations in the past and found some correlation but the note about products further along the curve is really interesting. I may have to do some further analysis.

I think there are several factors at play here;

a) Expectations of a pick up in inflation via rising rates.
b) Commodity cycle - cuts to output between the 2014-2016 decline feeding through the supply chain.
c) USD weakness.

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