I have been watching the correlation really close here to see how oil reacts... Oil held up well even with the strong dollar.

Besides technical reasons following is one more reason i am shorting 2 or 3 standard deviation moves to the upside or bounces in crude. Till official announcement of production cuts from OPEC etc comes shorts and shorts. It can be quite volatile as bottoming process in any trend takes time with 2-3 standard deviation whip saws on a regular basis. Trade way under your trading capacity and no leverage. If you think your account can handle 10 cars, trade 2.


US oil production is still surging.

The boom in US shale oil production is one single factors that's been most responsible for the collapse of oil prices since mid-2014.

And via Mark Perry at the American Enterprise Institute, oil production in January was at the highest monthly level since October 1973 – 41 years ago. This surge comes even as data from Baker Hughes shows that rig counts continue to decline.

Perry tweeted this updated chart of US oil production based on data from the Energy Information Administration.

And oil production is just through the roof.

Risk Range i am currently trading is 52.90 to 42.80. Sell at high risk range and buy at lower end of risk range. This does not mean that if there is macro shift/news, i am just closing my eyes and shorting 53 area. Range is just based off probabilities, weekly range, standard deviation etc.


" He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass. " Ray Dalio

" The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market. " George Soros.

Below is an "US total petroleum production vs CL price" 4-month chart. "Production" is a model' estimate in 1000 bbl per day weekly, "price" is a settlement price on the day following EIA release .


Source: EIA, CQG

mfbreakout 

Risk Range i am currently trading is 52.90 to 42.80. Sell at high risk range and buy at lower end of risk range. This does not mean that if there is macro shift/news, i am just closing my eyes and shorting 53 area. Range is just based off probabilities, weekly range, standard deviation etc. " He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass. " Ray Dalio " The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market. " George Soros.

Short high end of the range. Short 52.98. Cover some 52.20. I have not tried long since thursday as i am waiting for a FLUSH DOWN. Instead we keep getting FLUSH UP, so shorts and shorts.

mfbreakout 

Short high end of the range. Short 52.98. Cover some 52.20. I have not tried long since thursday as i am waiting for a FLUSH DOWN. Instead we keep getting FLUSH UP, so shorts and shorts.

Yeah I was short just below 53 this evening as well. However I couldn't hold them too much.
First 5 min bar of open was insane. 100+ tick.
Good area to short though.

Crazy wide risk range for this week 42.80 to 54.10 area. Very difficult environment to trade with wide whipsaws.

jthom 

Yeah I was short just below 53 this evening as well. However I couldn't hold them too much. First 5 min bar of open was insane. 100+ tick. Good area to short though.

I do not trade Asain or Euro session especially Asain session EXCEPT when we get 100+ ticks moves in a FLUSH UP. Without flush up- CL without macro catalyst moves very slowly. Who wants to trade 40 ticks range over 2-4 hour time period? i do not.

You did the right thing by covering per your risk profile. I also did not hold entire position for 100 ticks - covered most cars after 50 ticks gains.

We'll see whether it lasts but currently they are reversing a lot of that wierd twist they put into the forward curve last week.
CLH5 +130
CLH5/H6/H7 fly +80

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(Padd2 is especially important as that's where Cushing OK, the delivery point of the CL contract is)