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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1981 (permalink)
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Headline is :- Traders Think Hedge Funds Are Missing a Trick With Oil
Story Is :- "Physical differentials are improving across the world.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/as-hedge-funds-bet-on-falling-oil-traders-see-a-different-story

One thing I don't like about this article is when they say things like
"In Europe, Urals crude was 65 cents a barrel cheaper than Brent this month, the narrowest discount in almost three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In April, the discount was about $2."
Which Brent? Paper Brent (ie futures) or Physical (ie Dated Brent)? I assume they mean paper Brent but that isn't clear. Of course if they do mean Paper Brent then I'm sure the Paper-Dated spread has moved significantly as well.

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  #1982 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
I wonder if this could be for some accounting/balance sheet reason - for example if the well has been drilled then it counts as a 'proven reserve' or something like that in which shale companies can borrow more money/time based on these reserves?

My guess is there are a few reasons.

The frac-log (wells waiting to be frac'd) may be stretching out in part due to a lack of frac crews available to do the work. During the downturn a lot of these people found other work, and have been slow to return.

Also, the multi-stage frac's they are doing are very expensive. Companies will want cost effective infrastructure (pipelines) in place to move the product before committing to complete a well. There was a time when crude prices were higher this was not necessarily the case.

But you are also correct that getting the well drilled certainly opens the door to more leverage opportunities for the company. In many cases/regions you have to actually drill on a lease within a set period of time in order to maintain
the lease.

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  #1983 (permalink)
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Review OIL this afternoon - /CL


Oil getting to resistance levels. I expect this to be broken up soon.
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Last edited by TransAlp1989; July 25th, 2017 at 03:06 PM. Reason: spelling
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  #1984 (permalink)
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TransAlp1989 View Post
Oil getting to resistance levels. I expect this to be broken up soon.
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Can you explain these charts a bit please?


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  #1985 (permalink)
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Trading CL using Channels

What you see on my charts are channels with interior support / resistance lines to guide me as price bounces from one side to the other. On this chart I have two channels. The down trend and now the trend up. The top resistance is about 49.36 where it intersects a downtrending line. I also use a couple of moving averages to support trend direction identification.

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  #1986 (permalink)
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CL - Crude Oil - WTI Update

This is my view on oil this morning.

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  #1987 (permalink)
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Update on CL - WTI After Weekly Inventory Report

Price did reach support and bounced. The process was too volatile for me to trade it. Now price is at resistance. I will sit back and see what happens.


Last edited by TransAlp1989; July 26th, 2017 at 12:45 PM. Reason: spelling
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  #1988 (permalink)
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CL - Crude Oil - WTI Update 3:46 PM 5 Min Chart

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  #1989 (permalink)
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CL - Crude Oil - WTI Update 3:46 PM 1 Hr & 2 Hr Charts

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  #1990 (permalink)
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Thursday CL / WTI 1 and 2 Hr Review - Crude Oil


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It is possible for the price to break both levels and go test the RED prior resistance, now support levels based on what I see on the charts.

This can take us to $48 (+ or -) 10 cents.

Price is now at the light blue line, which is an internal channel support line.


Last edited by TransAlp1989; July 27th, 2017 at 08:08 AM. Reason: Adding comment
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