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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,848 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 6th, 2015, 09:04 AM   #181 (permalink)
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" CL either takes out 51 during Globex session and make another run for 52 area or she can go down to 49 area. Beyond 49 all bets are off for BULLS- as far this week is concerned."

Once 51 got taken out 52 and beyond was the target. Too bad it happened during my sleeping hours. ONLY thing i could do when i got to the screen this morning was to short for a 40-60 ticks pullback befor CL continues her upward move.

Short 52.54. Cover 52.12 and holding small short to see if i can get 51.50 area. ONLY refrence above 52.50 i have is 53.50 area as a supply zone.

Basically I trade 2 kinds of set ups.

1) 40-60 ticks pullbacks when shorting against an up move,

2) With the trend. For last 6 months i basically have been ONLY interested in shorts. Yesterday price action and subsequent price action during Globex session have started me thinking about longs. Targets for trend days are 200+ ticks.

Average hold time for both loosing and winning trades is around 2 hours.

Now after 2 hours, 52.54 looks pretty SURE short. No, it was not. There are very few sure set ups in day trading especially the ones which gives 100+ ticks.

Out flat 51.42.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 09:16 AM   #182 (permalink)
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For fun. Following chart with lines, color etc is not that bad compared to what we see out there but still all the work for what?

Yes sir I agree

Whilst putting this that and the other together I missed the NO BRAINER at 5210 short

So I came up with this (less is more)

-Bill_M

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Old February 6th, 2015, 09:26 AM   #183 (permalink)
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OIL: +3.3% on Down Dollar - a bad jobs report will give you more of that. That's the way i am trying to trade this morning job report.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 09:39 AM   #184 (permalink)
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Glad to see the Bureau of Lies and Scams is still on their A-game

The CEO for the Gallup Organization came out with a statement/ report earlier this week saying just about everything coming out of BLS is bullshit for the sheeple

Sounds fair enough, trade the tape

Cheers

-Bill

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Mr Denninger does an outstanding job (he uses math, math does not lie)

You decide


Quoting 
This is a crap report; all of the so-called "improvement" was due to outright lying via "seasonal adjustment" and what's worse is that the BLS is now admitting that we put 600,000+ more people into the working age population group last year, almost certainly via illegal immigration, than is normal for a given year.

http://market-ticker.org/post=229816


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Old February 6th, 2015, 01:39 PM   #185 (permalink)
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Well that was an interesting 1230ET wind down/ close. Yes I know most say that London closes at 1130amET, but I always watch at least up through 1230. Are we going to have that occasional fun filled Friday afternoon?

Anyway on to what I was watching

1226 no size contesting the offer, ask/ bid +675

1227 could only pull back/ open in the top 3/4 of the prior bar (1226 was a nice VSA spike up)

The rest is history

-Bill

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Old February 6th, 2015, 03:41 PM   #186 (permalink)
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Since BigMike started sharing his trades via Tradervue, here are 2 from me. I will highly recommend using this performance tracker. Once you loose $10K couple of times, it becomes relatively easier to make $3-$5K. There is no FREE LUNCH.
CL will do this and do that analysis ONLY matters when a trader has skin in the game.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 03:43 PM   #187 (permalink)
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Fridays tend to be worst day of the week for me. I am always very careful on Fridays.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 04:12 PM   #188 (permalink)
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Why instead of being up $15K on the day, i almost gave $3K away?
because i did not follow my RULES.

RULE is to short biggest, baddest and tallest GREEN bars. I followed that on 2 trades today but 1 short which just started out as so called lunch money during lunch hour caused me not to fully monetize trades which i took per rules.

During lunch hour, i shorted 51.73 with 1 car. Since this short does not fit my short criteria, i shorted with1 car. CL comes down to 51.32 area and before i could cover she is back up to 51.53 area. I have seen this 1,000 of times and since i only had 1 car, i did not care about this bounce. After 30 minutes of back and forth- CL jumps to 52.30 area. Now, i am seeing some energy in candles. I added to short at 52.40. CL is at 52.80, i added more , CL is at 53 area and i loaded up.

This would been OK but i added little bit too much at 52.40 area for my own liking. That 1 car short at 51.73 area caused me to miss REAL moves when i was fully loaded.

All my mess up trades start with something casual with 1 lot. 1 lot or 10 lots- please follow the RULES.



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Old February 6th, 2015, 04:42 PM   #189 (permalink)
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All my mess up trades start with something casual with 1 lot. 1 lot or 10 lots- please follow the RULES.

Amen to that! Funny how a 1 lot trade can spiral into something that makes one look like a total ass.

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Old February 6th, 2015, 06:38 PM   #190 (permalink)
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I wonder if these guys are right?

-Bill

Crude Oil Breakout Levels

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