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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1861 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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xplorer View Post
Thanks S.

Interesting, as my understanding was that Crude Oil stocks were at record high levels because of US shale producers. That was cited as a potential factor for which OPEC cuts did not appear to have a material impact on stocks.

Yes. As prices have risen due to the OPEC cuts, US (shale) production has increased, partially offsetting the OPEC cuts.

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  #1862 (permalink)
 ron99 
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All drill, no frack: U.S. shale leaves thousands of wells unfinished | Reuters

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  #1863 (permalink)
 FrazMann 
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Still bearish imo. I do wonder what the percentage of drilled wells actually produce in the end is though.

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  #1864 (permalink)
 
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I believe that is an incredibly misleading chart, and the reason statistics gets such a bad name at times. Reading the article it appears that the grey and black lines, in the lower half of the chart are figures PER MONTH, while the "uncompleted line" is CUMULATIVE. Hence the chart is comparing apples and oranges, but pretending the oranges are actually apples! There is several ways they could have tried to show this information in a graphic, but the one they picked is disingenuous.

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  #1865 (permalink)
 FrazMann 
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SMCJB View Post
I believe that is an incredibly misleading chart, and the reason statistics gets such a bad name at times. Reading the article it appears that the grey and black lines, in the lower half of the chart are figures PER MONTH, while the "uncompleted line" is CUMULATIVE. Hence the chart is comparing apples and oranges, but pretending the oranges are actually apples! There is several ways they could have tried to show this information in a graphic, but the one they picked is disingenuous.

Well spotted

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  #1866 (permalink)
 
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24-Mar-2017 01:00:07 PM - US OIL DRILLING RIG COUNT UP 21 AT 652 (UP 280 VS YEAR AGO) IN WEEK TO MARCH 24 -- BAKER HUGHES

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  #1867 (permalink)
 icog 
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SMCJB View Post
I believe that is an incredibly misleading chart, and the reason statistics gets such a bad name at times. Reading the article it appears that the grey and black lines, in the lower half of the chart are figures PER MONTH, while the "uncompleted line" is CUMULATIVE. Hence the chart is comparing apples and oranges, but pretending the oranges are actually apples! There is several ways they could have tried to show this information in a graphic, but the one they picked is disingenuous.

Yes it is cumulative and represents the delta between the lower two lines. For me it looks Ok, as these wells are prepared and even if the drilling stops they will have years untill all drilled wells become working ones.

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  #1868 (permalink)
 
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Not sure what the relevance of this is (if any!), but the 10 Day Average True Ranges of both RB and HO are at multi year lows!

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  #1869 (permalink)
 FrazMann 
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  #1870 (permalink)
 FrazMann 
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SMCJB View Post
Not sure what the relevance of this is (if any!), but the 10 Day Average True Ranges of both RB and HO are at multi year lows!

What does RB and HO stand for ?

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