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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1841 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Imports peaked for week ending 2/03 and dropped and now have leveled off at normal levels.

Oil imports on the weekly reports averaged 7,899 in 2016. Last week was 7,589. Tanker Tracker numbers for this week look similar.

Ron,
Thanks for that. Orangutan Trading at seeking alpha does a free post after every IEA report. He points out that US exports are up 81% so it makes it look like OPEC has really cut. Waiting to see that 1.7 million or so weekly decline that will make OPECs goal of returning us to the 5 year average in storage by July instead of being 164 million over as we are now. Clearly it has not happened yet.

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  #1842 (permalink)
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Trailer Guy View Post
Ron,
Thanks for that. Orangutan Trading at seeking alpha does a free post after every IEA report. He points out that US exports are up 81% so it makes it look like OPEC has really cut. Waiting to see that 1.7 million or so weekly decline that will make OPECs goal of returning us to the 5 year average in storage by July instead of being 164 million over as we are now. Clearly it has not happened yet.

Exports are small numbers so the percent looks large but it really isn't.

Last week US exports were 721,000 bpd. Last year same week they were 387,000. So a gain of only 334,000. That's just a drop in the bucket in the total world oil use.

Also Saudi Arabia is exporting more refined product to get around the oil quota.

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  #1843 (permalink)
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Interesting article showing time from deciding to drill for oil till time actually marketing the oil in US is about 9 months. Kemp is saying fall of 2017 will show increased US oil production.


Quoting 
The number of rigs drilling for oil has almost doubled since hitting a cyclical low at the end of May and is up by more than 50 percent compared with a year ago, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

But output of crude and condensates has risen less than five percent since May and is still below the level at the corresponding point last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.


Quoting 
At the end of the last boom, prices started to fall in June 2014, the rig count began to decline in October 2014, but output did not start to drop until May 2015, and those numbers were not reported until July 2015.

COLUMN-U.S. oil output poses awkward forecasting problem for OPEC: Kemp | Reuters

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ron99 View Post
Also Saudi Arabia is exporting more refined product to get around the oil quota.

It's facts like that, that are often rarely discussed, that can have a much bigger impact than people realize.
Thanks @ron99, where did you see that?

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SMCJB View Post
It's facts like that, that are often rarely discussed, that can have a much bigger impact than people realize.
Thanks @ron99, where did you see that?

I can't find where I saw that the first time but here is what I found doing Google search.

Quoting 
Saudi Arabia could be bypassing the OPEC deal by increasing exports of refined products.

API reports surplus while the market awaits EIA report - EconoTimes


Quoting 
Aramco plans to almost double its refining capacity by 2025 to 10 million barrels per day, equivalent to its current output of oil.
...
Exports of refined oil products in December fell to 1.136 million bpd from 1.226 million bpd in November.

Saudi king’s Asia trip shows the way for Aramco’s trade plans | The National

I know I saw Jan figures but can't find them now.

Also saw this tidbit
Quoting 
OPEC crude oil exports rise to 26.45 mln bpd in February from 23.63 mln in January

https://twitter.com/chris1reuters/status/837682204566253569

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The OPEC Deal Is Facing Its Biggest Test

OPEC’s strategy to balance the oil market and bolster prices is facing its biggest test.

The producer group is aiming to revamp the market by eroding a crude inventory surplus that’s depressed prices since 2014. A deal to cut output announced at the end of November, intended as a catalyst for trimming global stockpiles, had the side-effect of triggering a surge in U.S. production and a jump in the nation’s inventories to an all-time high. That’s prompted crude to give up a chunk of its post-deal gains.




Article on Bloomberg

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Bloomberg :- Saudi Arabia Says It Has Reversed a Third of Its Production Cuts

Saudi Arabia says it has reversed a third of its production cuts, raising output back above 10 million barrels a day in February. The kingdom, which had curbed supplies more than it needed in January to lead the way in an accord to re-balance world markets, boosted production by 263,300 barrels a day, according to a monthly report from OPEC. That figure, submitted by Riyadh, jarred with OPEC’s estimates, which showed Saudi production falling further last month to 9.8 million barrels a day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/saudis-tell-opec-they-eased-cuts-by-pumping-10-million-barrels

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CME :- Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable Oils?

Not a great piece but does talk about the impact Biofuels could be having on both Oil products

Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable Oils? - CME Group

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@manuel999 posted this over in the option selling thread. Very interesting discussion on Oil Stocks, Production etc and what it means for prices in the next 12-18 months. It really does make more sense if you register and download the chart package, otherwise its a little difficult to imagine what hes talking about.


manuel999 View Post
Here is an interesting podcast regarding the current and future situation in oil.
The interviewee Art Berman is an oil driller, so his perspective is quite interesting.
When listening to the podcast it is worthwhile to download the charts as pdf from the same site.

https://www.macrovoices.com/245-art-berman-2017-outlook-for-oil


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and since I'm on a research binge...

Morningstar Commodities Research
Lower-for-Longer Crude Prices Threaten Oil Sands Investment
How the shorter oil price cycle undermines expensive projects


By: Sandy Fielden, Director Oil and Products Research

To read the complete note, please click here.

Overseas Producers Retreat
WTI closed at $48.40/Bbl on Monday, March 13, 2017—down $5.61 since the end of February. Recent price weakness comes in response to market concerns about high U.S. inventories and rising shale output as well as doubts that OPEC production cuts are deep enough to balance supply with demand and shore up prices. The 10% price collapse in the past two weeks coincided with announcements from Shell and Marathon that they are selling oil sands production assets in Western Canada. These two companies are just the latest in a list of overseas investors reducing their exposure to oil sands production, including major reserve write downs by ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips and Statoil’s asset sale in December 2016. Canadian players that appear to be comfortable increasing their exposure to the oil sands have snapped up most of the liquidated assets. This note reviews the economics and future prospects for oil sands production in light of today’s “lower-for-longer” crude price environment.

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