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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1831 (permalink)
 ron99 
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According to Tanker Tracker data, the US weekly average for week for report coming out today (dated 2/11/17 on chart. Data for 2/11 to 2/17) was down from prior weeks. Should mean imports were down. But for next week it is up a lot so far.



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  #1832 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Random Musings of a Spread Trader

Posted this over in the NG thread in response to a crude oil comment


SMCJB View Post
Here's a crude chart for you.... Remember these are just 48 days apart, and in that time the Jun17 prices are only different by 14c!




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  #1833 (permalink)
 allinfun1 
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Maybe one of you CL traders could explain to me why we are seeing many days recently the CL trend nicely overnight and then around 9am ET it settles into a relatively narrow trading range for most if not all of the morning. It has been doing this with such regularity that there must be a reason and I sure could use some education in this regard.
Thanks much!

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  #1834 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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BP sets oil price breakeven target at $35 a barrel

BP sets oil price [AUTOLINK]breakeven[/AUTOLINK] target at $35 a barrel - MarketWatch

BP PLC on Tuesday laid out plans to drive its break-even oil price down to $35 to $40 a barrel by 2021, asserting that it can grow again and keep a lid on spending despite a massive bill from its Gulf of Mexico disaster six years ago.

In a strategic update that detailed the company's plans for the next five years, the British oil giant said it expects to increase production by an average of 5% a year from 2016 to 2021 without expanding its capital budget above its current $17 billion ceiling.

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 Trailer Guy 
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ron99 View Post
According to Tanker Tracker data, the US weekly average for week for report coming out today (dated 2/11/17 on chart. Data for 2/11 to 2/17) was down from prior weeks. Should mean imports were down. But for next week it is up a lot so far.


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Ron:
Platts is out with a report claiming that the import numbers are due to contracts signed prior to the OPEC production cut, claiming the travel time from the gulf confuses things. I would have thought that they have access to loading over the last couple of weeks for cargos headed for USA so I am very suspicious that this is a puff piece as a favor to somebody. Since you have Tanker Tracker do you accept their theory?

And thanks for all you do for this thread!

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  #1836 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Trailer Guy View Post
Ron:
Platts is out with a report claiming that the import numbers are due to contracts signed prior to the OPEC production cut, claiming the travel time from the gulf confuses things. I would have thought that they have access to loading over the last couple of weeks for cargos headed for USA so I am very suspicious that this is a puff piece as a favor to somebody. Since you have Tanker Tracker do you accept their theory?

And thanks for all you do for this thread!

I think Saudi to USGC via Suex is 30 odd days, but round the cape is 40+ days. So anything that loaded pre Jan 1st should have been here by mid-Feb.

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  #1837 (permalink)
 Trailer Guy 
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SMCJB View Post
I think Saudi to USGC via Suex is 30 odd days, but round the cape is 40+ days. So anything that loaded pre Jan 1st should have been here by mid-Feb.

Totally agree but Platts was using wiggle words and talking about contracted cargoes. We have read that OPEC December production was a record and agreeing to it then requires loading and transport, so I am not sure it is a bad piece but I am suspicious. I am guessing that Ron gets at least a couple of weeks head start on import numbers with the Tanker Tracking reports.

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  #1838 (permalink)
 ron99 
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Trailer Guy View Post
Ron:
Platts is out with a report claiming that the import numbers are due to contracts signed prior to the OPEC production cut, claiming the travel time from the gulf confuses things. I would have thought that they have access to loading over the last couple of weeks for cargos headed for USA so I am very suspicious that this is a puff piece as a favor to somebody. Since you have Tanker Tracker do you accept their theory?

And thanks for all you do for this thread!

Imports peaked for week ending 2/03 and dropped and now have leveled off at normal levels.

Oil imports on the weekly reports averaged 7,899 in 2016. Last week was 7,589. Tanker Tracker numbers for this week look similar.

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  #1839 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Bloomberg :- Watch U.S. Oil Drilling Collapse—and Rise Again

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-oil-rigs/

Pretty cool graphic

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  #1840 (permalink)
 Trailer Guy 
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ron99 View Post
Imports peaked for week ending 2/03 and dropped and now have leveled off at normal levels.

Oil imports on the weekly reports averaged 7,899 in 2016. Last week was 7,589. Tanker Tracker numbers for this week look similar.

Ron,
Thanks for that. Orangutan Trading at seeking alpha does a free post after every IEA report. He points out that US exports are up 81% so it makes it look like OPEC has really cut. Waiting to see that 1.7 million or so weekly decline that will make OPECs goal of returning us to the 5 year average in storage by July instead of being 164 million over as we are now. Clearly it has not happened yet.

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