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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1821 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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WilleeMac View Post
Could the South China Sea cause the next oil price spike ?
Forbes Welcome
-William

What would happen to the price of oil in the event of a geopolitical flare-up in the South China Sea?

If tankers were prevented from traversing the South China Sea, the oil supply to China, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan would be immediately impacted . The price of oil to those areas would spike, and the region would experience shortages.
Agreed but I would have thought more on fear of an extension of the 'crisis' than the actual disruption itself - see third point. Tapis futures anybody?
However, because oil is a global commodity and the market is impacted by speculation, oil prices around the world would also rise.
Now there is some speculation on speculation!
It is possible for tankers to circumvent the South China Sea entirely, but these alternative routes are lengthy and add additional expenses that would be passed on to the consumer.
Crude oil shipment costs are relatively insignificant compared to its outright cost. Hence adding 10 days to a journey does make things more expensive, but not significantly.

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  #1822 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I have put Tanker Tracker.com data into my Tableau graphs. Let me know what you think or any changes I should make.

See Energies-Oil Shipping Data here

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

Here is one example

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  #1823 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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LOL I am now a "fact checker" for EIA.


Quoting 
Thank you for pointing out our error involving the “last year” data column in the Supply and Demand tables. We have since corrected it as you will be able to see in our latest NGWU postings from Feb. 2 and Feb. 9:
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Best regards,
Peter
Peter Gross
Energy Information Administration
U.S. DOE
202-586-8822


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  #1824 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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ron99 View Post
I have put Tanker Tracker.com data into my Tableau graphs. Let me know what you think or any changes I should make.

See Energies-Oil Shipping Data here

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

Have you compared their data to the EIAs?

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  #1825 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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SMCJB View Post
Have you compared their data to the EIAs?

It doesn't match up exactly but it gives you a tendency of which way the next report will lean.

Obviously more than oil imports affect oil inventory.

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  #1826 (permalink)
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Oil Trader View Post
Anybody fundamentally short on the market right now? I am kind of super bearish on the short-term

I think it was John Arnold that said
With Saudi Aramco targeting a 2018 IPO, I think market has underestimated their desire to keep the oil market supported for next 18 months.
Initially I didn't agree, but I've been surprised by OPECs adherance to the reduced quota's to date and now think he may have hit the nail on the head. I do believe with crude > 50 US production will ramp up though.

Weird S shaped forward curve currently with
  • H7 >$2 below Z7 but
  • M8 50c ish over M9 and then
  • Z20 $1ish below Z22
I believe I currently have the smallest CL spread position I have had in years

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  #1827 (permalink)
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Quoting 
US crude #Oil exports jump to over 1 million per day last week. Almost double the week before

https://twitter.com/Ronh999/status/831891387901739011

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  #1828 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Forward Curve for crude oil

Hello everyone,

Recently I read about the forward curve (not only for Crude Oil futures, but for any other commodities futures in general). I am wondering how useful it is as an indicator or a trading tool?

Basically it's a plot of front-month price of crude oil futures and subsequent months price.

Anyone?

Hiran

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  #1829 (permalink)
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ahuja1998 View Post
Recently I read about the forward curve (not only for Crude Oil futures, but for any other commodities futures in general). I am wondering how useful it is as an indicator or a trading tool?

Welcome Hiran.

How useful it as an indicator or trading tool to do what? Trading prompt month crude? Pretty much none at all. Trading spreads? Well that's what trading spreads is, trading the shape of the forward curve. I personally believe (and have documented in this thread) that the forward curve twists and turns in ways that can be profited from by taking low risk, high probability trades. The problem these are all spreads and/or butterfiles and are often difficult if not impossible to execute effectively on most retail platforms. More than willing to discuss more if you have specific ideas or questions.

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  #1830 (permalink)
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WSJ :- The Oil Rally’s Nemesis Could Be U.S. Drivers — Energy Journal

"Americans used less gasoline last month than they have in 15 years, write Timothy Puko and Alison Sider. That has helped a gasoline supply glut to build up, with storage levels reaching the highest level in 27 years of U.S. record keeping."
The Oil Rally?s Nemesis Could Be U.S. Drivers?Energy Journal - MoneyBeat - WSJ

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