NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





The CL Crude-analysis Thread


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 681 posts (1,268 thanks)
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 303 posts (479 thanks)
    3. looks_3 WilleeMac with 275 posts (218 thanks)
    4. looks_4 ron99 with 165 posts (262 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 1.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 1.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WilleeMac with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 604,191 views
    2. thumb_up 3,550 thanks given
    3. group 286 followers
    1. forum 2,692 posts
    2. attach_file 644 attachments




 
Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1801 (permalink)
 
TheShrike's Avatar
 TheShrike 
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Experience: None
Broker: Tasty
Trading: Fops
Posts: 533 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 1,588
Thanks Received: 922

Was wondering what caused that late day spike. Thanks Willie

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Request for MACD with option to use different MAs for fa …
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Retail Trading As An Industry
58 thanks
Battlestations: Show us your trading desks!
50 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
47 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
31 thanks
What percentage per day is possible? [Poll]
31 thanks

  #1802 (permalink)
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 CobblersAwls 
London, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker: Bloomberg
Trading: Energies
Posts: 310 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 1,089
Thanks Received: 386

Anyone had a look at replicating some of the methods the OOTT team use for tanker tracking?

How prevalent are these methods in the industry? I'd assume they use more advanced methods to gain more accurate data, but this seems like an amazing step forward for those on a smaller scale (ie not a multi-billion dollar oil major) to get a handle on key fundamentals such as physical flows.

I've looked into something similar for the ags industry, this co (https://www.planet.com:443/markets/monitoring-for-precision-agriculture/) allows you to use satelite imagery to track crop conditions across the globe.

In an article I read recently in the economist, smaller trading outfits will soon be able to send cheap satellites into orbit as they become cheaper to launch ( A sudden light | The Economist).

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to CobblersAwls for this post:
  #1803 (permalink)
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity
Trading: /CL
Posts: 687 since Jan 2012
Thanks Given: 309
Thanks Received: 617


CNBC ‏@CNBC · 33m33 minutes ago

Oil prices set to slip as US shale gets ready to pump: IEA director

Georgi Kantchev ‏@georgikantchev · 33m33 minutes ago

Exxon Mobil expands Permian Basin footprint in deal worth more than $5.6 billion

-William

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #1804 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,033 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,359
Thanks Received: 10,172


CobblersAwls View Post
Anyone had a look at replicating some of the methods the OOTT team use for tanker tracking?

How prevalent are these methods in the industry? I'd assume they use more advanced methods to gain more accurate data, but this seems like an amazing step forward for those on a smaller scale (ie not a multi-billion dollar oil major) to get a handle on key fundamentals such as physical flows.

I've looked into something similar for the ags industry, this co (https://www.planet.com:443/markets/monitoring-for-precision-agriculture/) allows you to use satelite imagery to track crop conditions across the globe.

In an article I read recently in the economist, smaller trading outfits will soon be able to send cheap satellites into orbit as they become cheaper to launch ( A sudden light | The Economist).

There's a company out there called Bentek, which do a lot of monitoring of US energy assets, some of real time (power plants) some of it more day after (pipeline flows) that allow you to make better estimates of energy usage and storage levels than ever before. Unfortunately not free. I haven't seen in it several years, but they used to be cutting edge in their information. Back in 2008 we used to use their pipeline flow info to estimate supply/demand balances and as such storage levels. For a couple of years it was an information advantage but now everybody does that. Don't know about international though. Your crop comments are very interesting as well. Thanks.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
  #1805 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,033 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,359
Thanks Received: 10,172

Oil: Will Rising U.S. Output Stifle Post-OPEC Gains?

Oil: Will Rising U.S. Output Stifle Post-[AUTOLINK]OPEC[/AUTOLINK] Gains? - [AUTOLINK]CME[/AUTOLINK] Group

and on another note...

"The US oil rig count fell this week for the first time in 11 weeks, according to Baker Hughes. "

Baker Hughes [AUTOLINK]rig count[/AUTOLINK], January 13, 2017 - Business Insider

Reply With Quote
  #1806 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,033 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,359
Thanks Received: 10,172

Sorry for 3rd post in a row but I was just reading this... Donald Trump Warns on House Republican Tax Plan - WSJ which says
"Retailers and oil refiners have lined up against the measure..."
Obviously we import approximately 50% of our daily crude oil. I've not really followed this discussion so don't know any of the details about whats being proposed, but any import tax on crude oil, would obviously boost the value of domestically produced crude (ie WTI) relative to international crudes (ie Brent). This is actually contrary to my current thoughts, that increased US domestic production, offset by OPEC international cuts, would actually support a wider Brent-WTI spread. Hmmm.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
  #1807 (permalink)
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity
Trading: /CL
Posts: 687 since Jan 2012
Thanks Given: 309
Thanks Received: 617

@SMCJB no need for apologies

Good information (you) is a good thing

-William

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
  #1808 (permalink)
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 CobblersAwls 
London, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker: Bloomberg
Trading: Energies
Posts: 310 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 1,089
Thanks Received: 386


SMCJB View Post
There's a company out there called Bentek, which do a lot of monitoring of US energy assets, some of real time (power plants) some of it more day after (pipeline flows) that allow you to make better estimates of energy usage and storage levels than ever before. Unfortunately not free. I haven't seen in it several years, but they used to be cutting edge in their information. Back in 2008 we used to use their pipeline flow info to estimate supply/demand balances and as such storage levels. For a couple of years it was an information advantage but now everybody does that. Don't know about international though. Your crop comments are very interesting as well. Thanks.

Thanks for the info, I checked them out and it appears they were acquired by Platts in 2011 so must have become quite mainstream, perhaps reducing their edge? i'd imagine Platts charge quite a hefty fee too.

Something that I've pondered recently is:

The more access everyone has to accurate data and information, and the more perfect a picture we can all create as to market conditions and the 'fair price' of a product given these factors, will any change to this picture (new/changing information) have a more dramatic effect on price movements (higher volatility)?

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #1809 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,033 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,359
Thanks Received: 10,172


SMCJB View Post
Sorry for 3rd post in a row but I was just reading this... Donald Trump Warns on House Republican Tax Plan - WSJ which says
"Retailers and oil refiners have lined up against the measure..."
Obviously we import approximately 50% of our daily crude oil. I've not really followed this discussion so don't know any of the details about whats being proposed, but any import tax on crude oil, would obviously boost the value of domestically produced crude (ie WTI) relative to international crudes (ie Brent). This is actually contrary to my current thoughts, that increased US domestic production, offset by OPEC international cuts, would actually support a wider Brent-WTI spread. Hmmm.

Seems that even though I hadnt thought of it, obviously others had...

How Trump Crushed Millions of Dollars in Oil Options Trades

A corner of the oil market has been in a frenzy about potential tax-reform plans favored by House Republicans. Now, some who study the market say comments by President-elect Donald Trump have poured cold water on those plans, devaluing millions of dollars in options trades.

In recent weeks, traders increased bets that the U.S. crude oil benchmark price would rise above its global counterpart, amid Republican support for a so-called border tax affecting imports into the U.S. However, Trump described the tax plan as “too complicated” in an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, casting doubt on the proposal and putting the bets on oil prices at risk.


More...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-18/trump-s-remarks-seen-deflating-millions-in-oil-options-trades

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
  #1810 (permalink)
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity
Trading: /CL
Posts: 687 since Jan 2012
Thanks Given: 309
Thanks Received: 617


IEA

US Shale to rise 500 kb/d from Dec16-Dec17 to reach new record

-William

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote





Last Updated on March 5, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts