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Anyone had a look at replicating some of the methods the OOTT team use for tanker tracking?
How prevalent are these methods in the industry? I'd assume they use more advanced methods to gain more accurate data, but this seems like an amazing step forward for those on a smaller scale (ie not a multi-billion dollar oil major) to get a handle on key fundamentals such as physical flows.
In an article I read recently in the economist, smaller trading outfits will soon be able to send cheap satellites into orbit as they become cheaper to launch ( A sudden light | The Economist).
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
There's a company out there called Bentek, which do a lot of monitoring of US energy assets, some of real time (power plants) some of it more day after (pipeline flows) that allow you to make better estimates of energy usage and storage levels than ever before. Unfortunately not free. I haven't seen in it several years, but they used to be cutting edge in their information. Back in 2008 we used to use their pipeline flow info to estimate supply/demand balances and as such storage levels. For a couple of years it was an information advantage but now everybody does that. Don't know about international though. Your crop comments are very interesting as well. Thanks.
"Retailers and oil refiners have lined up against the measure..."
Obviously we import approximately 50% of our daily crude oil. I've not really followed this discussion so don't know any of the details about whats being proposed, but any import tax on crude oil, would obviously boost the value of domestically produced crude (ie WTI) relative to international crudes (ie Brent). This is actually contrary to my current thoughts, that increased US domestic production, offset by OPEC international cuts, would actually support a wider Brent-WTI spread. Hmmm.
Thanks for the info, I checked them out and it appears they were acquired by Platts in 2011 so must have become quite mainstream, perhaps reducing their edge? i'd imagine Platts charge quite a hefty fee too.
Something that I've pondered recently is:
The more access everyone has to accurate data and information, and the more perfect a picture we can all create as to market conditions and the 'fair price' of a product given these factors, will any change to this picture (new/changing information) have a more dramatic effect on price movements (higher volatility)?
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
Seems that even though I hadnt thought of it, obviously others had...
How Trump Crushed Millions of Dollars in Oil Options Trades
A corner of the oil market has been in a frenzy about potential tax-reform plans favored by House Republicans. Now, some who study the market say comments by President-elect Donald Trump have poured cold water on those plans, devaluing millions of dollars in options trades.
In recent weeks, traders increased bets that the U.S. crude oil benchmark price would rise above its global counterpart, amid Republican support for a so-called border tax affecting imports into the U.S. However, Trump described the tax plan as “too complicated” in an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, casting doubt on the proposal and putting the bets on oil prices at risk.
