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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,745 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 5th, 2015, 01:28 PM   #171 (permalink)
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Plan the trade, trade the plan. On the wrong side as i was ONLY focused on shorts. In the end turned out to be OK. There is a reason we follow our plan. After CL hit 51.30 area, i wanted to go long around 49.50 area but pullback never came.



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Last edited by mfbreakout; February 5th, 2015 at 01:36 PM.
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Old February 5th, 2015, 01:45 PM   #172 (permalink)
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I look at high of the day ( globex session high) and high put in after the news. Based of after the news report yesterday, high will be 51.10 area. That's why i said yesterday no longs for me till 51.20 area is cleared with FORCE and i kept shorting where ever i could muster the courage. It never crossed my mind to try long till there seems to be exhaustion into the close around 48 area.

52 was short from up there, not sure how long that will hold, i still dont get where wed and the report has anything to do with 52?

im sure im just missing something:

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Old February 5th, 2015, 01:56 PM   #173 (permalink)
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52 was short from up there, not sure how long that will hold, i still dont get where wed and the report has anything to do with 52?

im sure im just missing something:

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My dear fellow trader. Discretionary trading is not an exact science. In fact as far i am concerned there is no science behind day trading. Since friday from top to bottom and bottom to top- there have been around 4000 ticks. is there any way to explain this? Not really except by those who do not trade.

I hear you. By strict defination of news driven - 51.20 is wednesday level. When price stalled there. i took a short. when it keep coming back up, i covered rest of the shorts for a scratch.

CL could have easily ran another 100 or so ticks after 52 and may still do it. On Tuesday i took 150 ticks stop loss since based of probabilities i thought CL is not going above 54. My stop loss was at 54.02. It stopped me out. It takes experience and conviction to turn around after 150 ticks stop loss, to reshort, which i did at 93.92 and shorted all the way to 48 on wednesday.

Bottom line 52 is just an area where i think there is lot of supply. That's all. if i knew CL will hit 52 today, i would be looking for longs. In the end we just trade what makes sense.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 5th, 2015 at 02:02 PM.
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Old February 5th, 2015, 03:56 PM   #174 (permalink)
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Reshort 51.50 area. Cover 50.60 and 50.35. Flat.

Conditions for longs on this pullback from 52?

1) Pullback to 49.50 area. Wishfull thinking but that's the way it is.

2) Flush down and reversal. No flush down. A good example of flush down is into yesterday close around 48.

Now CL is in no touch zone for me. A flush down to 49.20 area - days ORL area would have been nice but no go. I would have loaded up there but happy with the day. CL either takes out 51 during Globex session and make another run for 52 area or she can go down to 49 area. Beyond 49 all bets are off for BULLS- as far this week is concerned.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 5th, 2015, 04:10 PM   #175 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

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RULE: SELL GREEN- BUY RED.

Which Green to sell and which Red to buy? The biggest, the tallest, the baddest greens and reds.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 5th, 2015, 04:30 PM   #176 (permalink)
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EDIT

Here's the same chart with the opposing measured move short (obviously you could tighten up the pull)

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Old February 6th, 2015, 08:04 AM   #177 (permalink)
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" CL either takes out 51 during Globex session and make another run for 52 area or she can go down to 49 area. Beyond 49 all bets are off for BULLS- as far this week is concerned."

Once 51 got taken out 52 and beyond was the target. Too bad it happened during my sleeping hours. ONLY thing i could do when i got to the screen this morning was to short for a 40-60 ticks pullback befor CL continues her upward move.

Short 52.54. Cover 52.12 and holding small short to see if i can get 51.50 area. ONLY refrence above 52.50 i have is 53.50 area as a supply zone.

Basically I trade 2 kinds of set ups.

1) 40-60 ticks pullbacks when shorting against an up move,

2) With the trend. For last 6 months i basically have been ONLY interested in shorts. Yesterday price action and subsequent price action during Globex session have started me thinking about longs. Targets for trend days are 200+ ticks.

Average hold time for both loosing and winning trades is around 2 hours.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 6th, 2015 at 08:11 AM.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 08:18 AM   #178 (permalink)
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I am a big believer in 100 ticks moves of CL. What this means is that if she runs 100+ ticks without me to the upside, i am not going longs at highs. I have to wait for a pullback.
Similarly, if she moves down 100+ ticks without me, i have to wait for a bounce to short.
As an example my short from 52.54, I am looking for 51.50 based of my observation of CL 100 ticks moves.


As far as CL bottoming process, it will be nice to see CL test lows one more time so that remaining BULLS hearts are completely shattered. That's how nice bottoms are made.


NOTE: GOLD, Crude and US $ reaction to todays job report can provide nice opportunities for trading CL along with GC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 6th, 2015 at 08:32 AM.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 08:57 AM   #179 (permalink)
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For fun. Following chart with lines, color etc is not that bad compared to what we see out there but still all the work for what?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 6th, 2015, 08:57 AM   #180 (permalink)
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