The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:179,497 / 2,078
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:534

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 534  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #171 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading

Plan the trade, trade the plan. On the wrong side as i was ONLY focused on shorts. In the end turned out to be OK. There is a reason we follow our plan. After CL hit 51.30 area, i wanted to go long around 49.50 area but pullback never came.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-02-05_0820_process.png   The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-02-05_1209_shorts.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 5th, 2015 at 01:36 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #172 (permalink)
Elite Member
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG, TOS
Favorite Futures: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,641 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,217 given, 1,011 received


mfbreakout View Post
I look at high of the day ( globex session high) and high put in after the news. Based of after the news report yesterday, high will be 51.10 area. That's why i said yesterday no longs for me till 51.20 area is cleared with FORCE and i kept shorting where ever i could muster the courage. It never crossed my mind to try long till there seems to be exhaustion into the close around 48 area.

52 was short from up there, not sure how long that will hold, i still dont get where wed and the report has anything to do with 52?

im sure im just missing something:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
  #173 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading



madLyfe View Post
52 was short from up there, not sure how long that will hold, i still dont get where wed and the report has anything to do with 52?

im sure im just missing something:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

My dear fellow trader. Discretionary trading is not an exact science. In fact as far i am concerned there is no science behind day trading. Since friday from top to bottom and bottom to top- there have been around 4000 ticks. is there any way to explain this? Not really except by those who do not trade.

I hear you. By strict defination of news driven - 51.20 is wednesday level. When price stalled there. i took a short. when it keep coming back up, i covered rest of the shorts for a scratch.

CL could have easily ran another 100 or so ticks after 52 and may still do it. On Tuesday i took 150 ticks stop loss since based of probabilities i thought CL is not going above 54. My stop loss was at 54.02. It stopped me out. It takes experience and conviction to turn around after 150 ticks stop loss, to reshort, which i did at 93.92 and shorted all the way to 48 on wednesday.

Bottom line 52 is just an area where i think there is lot of supply. That's all. if i knew CL will hit 52 today, i would be looking for longs. In the end we just trade what makes sense.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 5th, 2015 at 02:02 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #174 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

trading

Reshort 51.50 area. Cover 50.60 and 50.35. Flat.

Conditions for longs on this pullback from 52?

1) Pullback to 49.50 area. Wishfull thinking but that's the way it is.

2) Flush down and reversal. No flush down. A good example of flush down is into yesterday close around 48.

Now CL is in no touch zone for me. A flush down to 49.20 area - days ORL area would have been nice but no go. I would have loaded up there but happy with the day. CL either takes out 51 during Globex session and make another run for 52 area or she can go down to 49 area. Beyond 49 all bets are off for BULLS- as far this week is concerned.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-02-05_1359_context.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 5th, 2015 at 04:08 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #175 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading

RULE: SELL GREEN- BUY RED.

Which Green to sell and which Red to buy? The biggest, the tallest, the baddest greens and reds.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-02-05_1504_green.png   The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-02-05_1505_red.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #176 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 683 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 606 received

Let's see if this will put a couple of clams in our wallet

-Bill_M

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


EDIT

Here's the same chart with the opposing measured move short (obviously you could tighten up the pull)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 5th, 2015 at 05:03 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #177 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading

" CL either takes out 51 during Globex session and make another run for 52 area or she can go down to 49 area. Beyond 49 all bets are off for BULLS- as far this week is concerned."

Once 51 got taken out 52 and beyond was the target. Too bad it happened during my sleeping hours. ONLY thing i could do when i got to the screen this morning was to short for a 40-60 ticks pullback befor CL continues her upward move.

Short 52.54. Cover 52.12 and holding small short to see if i can get 51.50 area. ONLY refrence above 52.50 i have is 53.50 area as a supply zone.

Basically I trade 2 kinds of set ups.

1) 40-60 ticks pullbacks when shorting against an up move,

2) With the trend. For last 6 months i basically have been ONLY interested in shorts. Yesterday price action and subsequent price action during Globex session have started me thinking about longs. Targets for trend days are 200+ ticks.

Average hold time for both loosing and winning trades is around 2 hours.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 6th, 2015 at 08:11 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #178 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading

I am a big believer in 100 ticks moves of CL. What this means is that if she runs 100+ ticks without me to the upside, i am not going longs at highs. I have to wait for a pullback.
Similarly, if she moves down 100+ ticks without me, i have to wait for a bounce to short.
As an example my short from 52.54, I am looking for 51.50 based of my observation of CL 100 ticks moves.


As far as CL bottoming process, it will be nice to see CL test lows one more time so that remaining BULLS hearts are completely shattered. That's how nice bottoms are made.


NOTE: GOLD, Crude and US $ reaction to todays job report can provide nice opportunities for trading CL along with GC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 6th, 2015 at 08:32 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #179 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading

For fun. Following chart with lines, color etc is not that bad compared to what we see out there but still all the work for what?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-2015-02-05_1816_muck_up.png  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
  #180 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 683 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 606 received


@mfbreakout

Thank you



-Bill

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Dec 7

Linda Bradford Raschke: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:02 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-11-23 in 0.13 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.225.16.10