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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1781 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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API says 4.15 mil barrel drop in US oil inventories. EIA says increase 2.2.

API says Cushing increase 690,000 barrels. EIA says drop 200,000.

Can't trust API at all.

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  #1782 (permalink)
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Can someone explain why NG is up a lot today on cold weather forecasts but HO is down a lot?

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  #1783 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post



Can't trust API at all.

What is a poor algo to do.
Clipper Data free blog showed a 4 month high in crude sitting in the Gulf waiting to unload. The weekly 5 year average shows we are ready for the winter noose dive in refining. Spec longs all time high. And now two weks in a row of whip saw inventory reports. This isn't going to end well.

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  #1784 (permalink)
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Tankertrackers.com

See FAQ, very cool.

Sent from my iPad using futures.io mobile app

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  #1785 (permalink)
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Redhouse View Post
Tankertrackers.com

See FAQ, very cool.

Yeah thats pretty cool. Need more maps

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  #1786 (permalink)
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CME raising NG futures margin again on Friday. Front month margin up 32% this month.

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  #1787 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Random Musings of a Spread Trader....

Haven't done this in a while, and its basically Xmas Eve so nobodies watching, but here goes anyway...

Been some huge curve shifts the last two months. If you look at the chart below, you can see that in the last two months the front of the curve, has dropped $8/bbl and rebounded to almost the exact same level.

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While G7 is virtually unchanged to where it was two months ago, the back end of 2017 is almost $2 higher, while 2020 is over $2 lower.

If we compare, the G7-Z7 spread, to the Z7-Z0 spread (ie the G7-Z7-Z0 Butterfly) this is what we get for the last 3 months.

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Pretty impressive $6 move in a Butterfly, given that the prompt is unchanged over the last 2 months.

Here's a different way to think of this.

The following scatter chart shows the Month 2 - Month 10 - Month 34 Butterfly on the y-axis vs the Month 2, 10, 34 Average Outright price on the x-axis, for the last 5 years. As you can see a simple polynomial line of best fit has an R2 of 64.88. This means that 64.9% of price in the Butterfly is explained by the Average Price.

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The average price at settle today (23rd) was $55.11 and the Butterfly was <$3.41>.
The polynomial regression predicts the butterfly to be $0.98 a difference of $4.39! The standard error of the regression is $2.14, so we are currently 2.05 multiples of the standard error away from the polynomial predicted price.
The linear regression, which isn't as good, predicts $0.20 a difference of $3.61! The standard error is larger at $2.41, but that still means we are currently 1.5 multiples of the standard error away from the linear predicted price.

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  #1788 (permalink)
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Hello folks,

Happy Christmas for everyone.
Just came here, and I am a professional Crude oil analyst, looking for a place where people exchange their positions and configurations, ideas, dailybasis.

Can someone redirect me to the right thread if existant ?

Appreciate it thanks.

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  #1789 (permalink)
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WTIcrude View Post
Hello folks,

Happy Christmas for everyone.
Just came here, and I am a professional Crude oil analyst, looking for a place where people exchange their positions and configurations, ideas, dailybasis.

Can someone redirect me to the right thread if existant ?

Appreciate it thanks.

You might check some of the journals of people who trade CL. This thread is predominantly fundamentals/news/discussion orientated rather than positions/trades related. If your a Crude Oil Analyst we would appreciated anything you posted that might interest us.

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  #1790 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
If your a Crude Oil Analyst we would appreciated anything you posted that might interest us.

That would be nice, much appreciated

@WTIcrude Also, see if anything can be derived from #OOTT

-William

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